Jan. 6, 2025
2025 Investment Insights: Market Volatility and Opportunities in the New Year
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This week on The Money Matters Show, the team reflects on the end of 2024 and discusses the investment outlook for 2025. Dean addresses educational reform and its impact on the economy, highlighting shifting attitudes towards failure and...
This week on The Money Matters Show, the team reflects on the end of 2024 and discusses the investment outlook for 2025. Dean addresses educational reform and its impact on the economy, highlighting shifting attitudes towards failure and accountability and their effects on everything from college football to economic resilience.
The show delves into market dynamics, recent volatility, high valuations, and tech stock fluctuations. Valuable investment strategies include maintaining higher cash positions and readiness to capitalize on market dips.
The conversation touches on legislative chaos, market holidays, and voter participation. The future of unionization efforts at Starbucks and the evolving landscape of electric vehicles amidst rising electricity costs are also discussed.
The show delves into market dynamics, recent volatility, high valuations, and tech stock fluctuations. Valuable investment strategies include maintaining higher cash positions and readiness to capitalize on market dips.
The conversation touches on legislative chaos, market holidays, and voter participation. The future of unionization efforts at Starbucks and the evolving landscape of electric vehicles amidst rising electricity costs are also discussed.
WEBVTT
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Good morning everybody. It's that time, Sunday morning, eight o'clock
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right here in seven ninety k and is tea and
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this is the Money Matter Show with Dean Greenberg. Hopefully
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for the next couple hours, we'll bring you some insightful
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information about what's going on in the world, the markets, politics,
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and how to profit from it. That's what the show's about.
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We've been doing it for thirty five years, talking to
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you right here in Tucson about how we look at
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the markets, how we invest money for people as money managers.
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A little bit different and a little bit unique, but
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we enjoy it. And I don't mind educating telling you
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what's going on and not. I've talked to you about
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this many many times. You're gonna have all these economists,
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all these people out there telling you newsletters, people from
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the top Wall Street firms telling you what they expect
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this year. But at the end of the day, it
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does it matter unless they are pressing the button to
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make the trades. Anyone in this business that manages money
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for others is the ones that I respect because you
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have a track record every day, every week, every month,
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every year. You have to do it same thing. You're
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not an institution. When you're on our site, you have
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to do it accordingly with each client's risk preference. Also,
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because as you know, everything we talk about, everything we
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discuss has some type of risk. Greenbrook Financial Group is
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both a registered investment advisory and a broke a dealer.
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For now, the BROCA dealer side's going away in the
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next thirty days or so. They're always going to be
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a registered investment advisor and always going to be a
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fiduciary and from that point we will always always understand
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the risks. We want you to understand the risk too.
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There's risk in everything that happens, everything we do, everything
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you do has some type of risk. If you understand risk,
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you become a much better investor. So when you look
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at that, we've been talking the last few weeks that
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we thought the market was a little bit risky and
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we were hoping for a Santa Claus Rally. Didn't really come.
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We had one day to Santa lu Court Santa Claus
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Rally that was on Friday. I believe were setting ourselves
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up for a lot of volatility. Volatility just doesn't go down,
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it goes down and up, and that's exactly what we're seeing.
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On Thursday, it was a perfect example. The S and
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P five hundred and the down. Everything was way up.
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SMP was up almost fifty some odd points, finished down
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the day after being down a lot about thirty some
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odd points. That's a seventy five eighty point swing in
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the S and P s in a very short period
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of time. More than that one am I talking about.
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You talked fifty and then another thirty about eighty points
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in a very short period of time. Those are things
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that cause volatility. That also causes people to say when
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they should in and buy when they should in. I've
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been very, very very strong on telling people be patient,
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be patient. The valuations of the market are high. If
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the earnings don't come out better than expected, you're going
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to see drops and stocks. Those are going to be
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our opportunities to purchase or indexes. I have no problems
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buying basket of stocks and ETFs for people that want
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a little less risk but want to be exposed to
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the more growth areas or the indexes. You got to
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have indexes. One of our models called the GfG model,
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has all the major indexes in them and different percentages
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you and you always continue as the markets move one
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way to the other to readjust them and reallocate them
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so the meeting the percentages you want. This is how
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you are able to mitigate the risk in the markets
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when they're going up, and that way you go ahead
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and mitigate the risks when they're coming down. Having a
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little bit above cash position right now is where we sit.
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We don't mind having cash in a money market earning
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four one and a half percent or so at this time,
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four point three percent, we'll take that. While the market's
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flounder between basically fifty eight hundred on the SMP and
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sixty one hundred on the SMP. They break out, then
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it looks a little bit better if the earnings are
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showing us. If it breaks down, expect us to come
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down to fifty five hundred or so, which would give
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us a good ten to eleven twelve percent, maybe fifteen
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percent for the top. And if it does that, it
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will be quick, it'll be scary, and then we do it.
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Why do I think that could happen, Well, I think
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there's volatility. The reason I think it could happen is
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everything isn't going to go Trump's way. Well, I think
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he has a lot of grit, great economic ideas, they
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still have to be passed. And this is what makes
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my mind boggle when everybody calls them fascist, dictator, communists,
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you name it. They are people. We have to vote.
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The people that we put in the Congress and the
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Senate and the House and everyone else has to vote.
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They have to agree to whatever it is. And as
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you know, the Republicans do not vote one lockstep like
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the Democrats do, which is good and bad obviously, because
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at least when they don't want to vote, they have
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to compromise so we can get some things done. I
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don't want this to be like we saw the first
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time around, when everything was locked up and it was
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almost impossible to get through. We need to move quickly, swiftly,
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with confidence that the moves we make are going to
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make changes. But I promise you whatever he puts in
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with the stroke of the pen, whatever the bills are
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that come to the table, are going to take time
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to implement. It's going to take time to get it
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through and start going. Hell, we all know there's more
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money left over from all from the pandemic. There was
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still money left over for years. The other bills that
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the Biden got passed. There's still money left over, so
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it takes a long time to go through this chips
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and Technology bill. There's still a lot of the billions
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and billions of dollars. Then, on the other hand, we
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got the Doge Committee with Vivic and Musk going ahead
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and going to try to clean things up. But remember
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they can't do anything except go ahead and give suggestions,
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suggestions that are gonna have to be acted on by
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the Trump administration, and therefore those that have to be
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voted on are going to have to be voted on
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by Congress. So I believe you're going to see a
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stall and what's going to happen here, which is going
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to cause chaos and chaos is going to go ahead
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and cause concern, and concern is going to cost people
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not to be biased, which means they'll be more sellers,
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and the markets could fall and set us up a
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fantastic buying opportunity. I believe in the first few months
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of the year, we'll see if that pans out. If
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it doesn't, then I'm wrong, and the markets keep going higher.
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It's just stretching on envelope more stretching a rubber band
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more for the snapback, but you're still going to make money.
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You just wouldn't make as much. And if you're in
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the right things, you might make more. It all depends
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on how you know the risk you take and how
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you're looking at it and what are you doing. But
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normality would be or in the indexes of the index
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is going up and not coming down. You're going to
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make money period if you're in some of the stocks
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that are going to be the good ones, or you're
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gonna make money period. But do I think the technology
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stocks could have a little snap back, Yeah, they can,
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but when you that's the micro picture the next few months.
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But the reason I bring that up is the reason
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you the way you can protect yourself from skitting skit
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out is by having some extra cash. If you usually
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like being seventy percent or eighty percent invested in the
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market of your overall investments, cut that back to sixty.
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It's all right, if you're sixty seventy, cut it back
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to fifty. You'll still make money, and you'll still earn
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money in the money market, but you'll have money to
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buy if they do come down. If they don't, I
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promise you there's always opportunities there will be something that
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will happen. Look at Boeing. Okay, Boeing twice gave us opportunities.
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We'll see where it goes. If you can get it
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back together, you'll see that's rally again. Disney, great example.
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Great example, went down in the seventies, came all the
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way back up to about one hundred and twenty five
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hundred and thirty, came all the way back down to
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the to the nineties, and now it's back up into
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the one ten area or so. These stocks will go
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up and down. If you wait for your opportunities, they
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will give them to you. The doubt companies are big companies.
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The tech companies are big companies. Remember, the tech companies
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are going to have to basically be perfect on the AI,
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the artificial intelligence money they're spending to keep the growth going.
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Otherwise people are going to start saying, whow, we're spending
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a lot of money on that and we're not seeing
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any returns. I don't expect to see some returns right away,
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and I've seen a lot of money going into the
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next era of investing, which is the quantum computering, which
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these things have done more than two or three times
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the money already. Stocks that were a dollar or ten dollars,
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stocks are were four or twenty dollars, and the stocks
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that were ten or four does it stop? I don't know.
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Would I jump on here? I would be nervous. Okay,
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having that for everybody because quantum computing, for sure is
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behind AI. You gotta get the AI, then you got
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to quantum computing. So is it speculative, absolutely it is.
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Are people gonna make money off of it? Yes? Are
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people gonna lose money off of it? Yes? Because the
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volatility will be there, and when it comes to the forefront,
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you'll know which ones are the good ones, just like
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the video did. And no matter when you got into
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it in the video and you didn't have to get
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in at ten or twenty or fifty dollars, you made
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a lot of money off of it because it became
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the to the forefront of what everybody needed. And that
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stock started going from one hundred and ten all the
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way up to almost twelve hundred dollars and then and
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then split okay maybe it was fourteen hundred dollars, I
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can't remember, but and then split ten for one. That's
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what we had and that's why you have to look
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at it and say you will have those opportunities, but
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making money also takes some risk. And if you take
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risk and you don't like risk, and these things go down,
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they hurt you. So for the first week of the year, okay,
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ending today, the markets were down about a half a
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percent across the board. Okay, that means for Monday, Tuesday,
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and then off Wednesday and Thursday and Friday. But from
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January starting right now, we're up about one percent across
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the board because we had a very good Friday. We'll
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see where we go with it in the areas. Remember,
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technology is still going to be at the forefront. You know,
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you got the fence out there that that's not going
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to go away. You know, We'll see what happens with
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the banks if they deregulate. Is that going to help them?
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But interest rates aren't helping them so much yet. The
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Fed Fund rate's coming down, so people are able to borrow,
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not people, but banks are able to borrow money and
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loan money at a lower rate. That means that maybe
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these banks can make some more money, So maybe the
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financials will do well. But on the other side, mortgages
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and stuff are going to be high, So you're not
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going to see that booming yet. People got to feel
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comfortable with the seven six and a half percent rate
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and before they start going out and purchasing a new home,
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because you know, right now, if you're sitting there with
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a two and a half, three, three and a half,
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even four percent loan, why are you going to go
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buy another place and start spending six and a half
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seven percent on your mortgage unless you had to. These
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are things they're going to affect us going forward. So
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I think the night of this year could be tough,
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and I think it could be volatile. I don't expect
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if we see more than double digits, I'd be surprised.
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But if that doesn't mean it can't happen, it's sometime
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early or later coming back. But I do think that
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anytime we have a fullback of ten percent, the more
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you know, don't looking at dollar cost savage. In dollar
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cost savage means it means that you put a little
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bit at a time. And if you put a little
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bit at a time, what that will do is go
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ahead and give you the opportunity to go ahead and
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keep moving forward. And if you do that, that will
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be fantastic and that will put you in a position
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that that will go ahead and allow you to make money.
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I mean, at the end of the day, that's what
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you're looking to do. You're looking to make money. And
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if you're looking to make money, the best way to
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do it is to be patient and buy when it's
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low and trim back your positions when the markets go
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up and they're higher. So Johnson got in, okay, you know,
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obviously some of the Republicans voted against them, but finally
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came around at the end. I like the fact that
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