84: The Truth Canadian Real Estate Data is Telling with rennie Intelligence's Ryan Berlin & Ryan Wyse

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Welcome back to the Kelowna Real
Estate Podcast.

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I'm your mortgage broker host,
Taylor Atkinson.

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And I'm your real estate agent
host, Matt Glenn.

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What's happening today, Taylor?
Yeah, just wanted to touch on that

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McKay Grove project by Audeo again
out in Peachland.

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Matt and I are going to try and
jump out to that event November

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23rd.

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That's 10am to 3pm on Buchanan

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Road.

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And you better not even enter for

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that $500 gift card from Martin's
lane.

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Cause I'm going for that for sure.

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You versus me, bro.

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We're both going for it.

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But yeah, if you guys want to

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register, go to McKay grove.ca.

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Yeah.

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They obviously have a website,
follow them on Instagram, reach

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out to them, let them know you're
coming.

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Obviously try and get a head
count, but yeah, it's McKay lane

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development yeah really cool
project yeah they're like really

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nice uh townhome they're like
really nice uh townhome project

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they're definitely worth checking
checking out yeah and on today's

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show we had a couple awesome
ryan's ryan wise and ryan berlin

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from renny so uh renny is a fairly
robust real estate brokerage,

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mostly based out of Vancouver, but
they seem like they're starting to

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grow and they are up in the
Kelowna market as well.

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So yeah, we kind of spoke to them
on macro, micro, provincial,

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federally, like pretty much about
everything.

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Yeah, because they have an
intelligence department.

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Yeah, I love that, man.

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Like I'm going to give myself my

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own intelligence department.

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I felt like I was talking to the

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I'm CIA.

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your Yeah.

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intelligence department, Like I'm
man.

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going to give myself my own
intelligence department.

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I felt like I was talking to the
CIA.

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Yeah.

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I'm your intelligence department,

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dude.

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Oh, we're all in trouble.

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I thought that was so cool.

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This is the beginning of the show.

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And they're like, yeah, this is
the intelligence department.

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We are, you know, integral part of
the brokerage, which to me, like

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at the time, it seemed so, I don't
foreign know, to be like, an

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intelligence wow, department for a
real estate brokerage, which to

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like at me, the time it seemed I
don't so, foreign know, to be

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like, wow, an intelligence
department for a real estate

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brokerage.

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But then as we started talking to

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them, like, should every brokerage
not have this?

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Like, otherwise it just leaves the
work to, you know, a bunch of real

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estate agents trying to plug
numbers around, which, you know,

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we know isn't great.

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So I think this could be the way

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of the future.

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They're leading the way.

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Yeah, I think they have the to
they have the right idea.

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It's pretty cool what they got
going on.

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Also, super fun talking to both
Ryan's, Ryan Berlin and Ryan Wise.

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That was fun to deal with.

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Yeah, yeah.

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I would suggest out of anything,
you know, listen to the show.

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It's a great show, but definitely,
you know, follow them on, well,

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apparently they're on TikTok now
as well.

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But LinkedIn is where they put out
a lot of really good reports.

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I think they have a newsletter as
well that they send out

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information and even things like,
you know, lakefront property in

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the Okanagan.

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Like they are really diving into

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the super, super nitty gritty
specific data.

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So yeah, a value add for anyone
that's looking at buying or

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selling in the near future is dive
into their info.

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Definitely.

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This episode, like every like

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every episode, is sponsored by
Century 21 Assurance Realty.

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Best brokerage in Kelowna.

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Probably the best brokerage in the

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interior since we're growing so
much.

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We're now in Kamloops, Vernon,
Kootenays, Sushwap.

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If you need an agent in any of
those areas or you are an agent

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looking for a new brokerage, give
us a call.

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Love to talk to you about it and
see what we can do for you.

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Sounds great.

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Enjoy the show, guys.

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All right, Ryan and Ryan, welcome
to the show.

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Thanks for joining us, guys.

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Thanks for having us.

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Yeah, great to be here, guys.

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Who's who so the listener can tell

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when they're listening?
Yeah, for sure.

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I'm Ryan Wise.

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Ryan is market intelligence

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manager and lead analyst.

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Nice.

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So I'm Ryan Berlin.

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I head up our intelligence group

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and I'm our head economist.

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So we can go by last names here if

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you want.

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If that's easier, we can go Berlin

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and Wise.

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Oh, I like that.

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I like that.

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Yeah.

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Okay.

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Well, Berlin and Wise, I'll leave

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you guys to want, you know, who's
going to take this first, but we

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kind of like to start our show
with just you connecting with our

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listener in terms of what's your
perfect Friday look like?

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What gives you productivity
work-wise and then leading into a

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fun for the weekend?
Sure.

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I'll jump in.

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I actually have a Friday theory

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that I kind of tell anyone who's
willing to listen and it relates

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to sort of the hybrid work
environment.

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So I think that most people seem
to work from home Fridays.

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That's like the most popular day.

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There's like not a lot of traffic

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on the roads or anything like
that.

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But I think Mondays and Fridays
are the two best days to be in the

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office.

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And for me, it's all about those

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conversations that you don't have
the rest of the week that can

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really lead you into sort of the
creative sort of aha moments.

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I find we get a lot more done on
new innovative things on Fridays.

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So my favorite thing is get up
early, drop the kids off, get into

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the office and kind of collaborate
with our team or other people in

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the office because I find those
really cool steps forward always

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happen on Fridays.

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Nice.

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Yeah, I'm with you on that.

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Fridays are great for that kind of

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thing.

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My Friday starts the same as all

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other days during the week.

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I try to get up at five every day

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to work out, jump on the Peloton,
throw back a couple of decaf

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coffees, make the kids lunches.

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It's a very exciting life I lead.

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Get them out the door for school.

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So that kind of thing where the

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mornings are pretty full.

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Once I get in the office, yeah, I

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mean, I look forward to those
conversations on Friday as well.

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It gets sort of your brain turning
and sets the stage for the next

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week.

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I try not to schedule meetings on

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Fridays.

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I don't have to just kind of keep

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the decks clear so that loose ends
can be tied up and you kind of get

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organized for the week ahead.

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Yeah, so that's it.

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And then weekends are just filled
with family stuff and kids stuff

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and lots of pizza.

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So that's about it.

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Nice.

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That sounds very That sounds very

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familiar.

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Yeah.

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Friday pizzas days are ideal.

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pizzas days are ideal.

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Can you guys just give us like a
high level company summary for

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Rennie?
I think you've come up to Kelowna

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fairly recently, but obviously
you're more well-known in the

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lower mainland.

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Yeah.

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Can you just kind of give us the
elevator pitch on company?

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Sure.

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Our real estate services company,

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you know, technically been around
for 40 plus years, but started

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with our founder, Bob Rennie.

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We're now a company of 160

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full-time staff at our head
office.

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And we've got over 300 agents,
advisors, realtors, whatever you

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want to call them.

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And we operate in a few different

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spaces in the real estate sector.

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So first and foremost, we are both

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a traditional brokerage that
operates largely in resale, also a

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new home market, but then we also
have a pre-sale marketing and

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sales division as well, as well as
an advisory function.

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Ryan and I are both within the
intelligence division.

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We support the operations of the
business from the perspective of

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trying to understand the market,
doing our best to understand the

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market, what's impacting it, where
things are going, so that we can

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help our clients better understand
the markets that they're designing

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product for, launching into, to
help our advisors who are working

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with buyers or sellers, often in
the resale space, but also in the

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pre-sale space, just understand
what kind of a commitment they're

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making to either seller to buy.

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So we're very much a data-driven

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company.

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We operate primarily out of

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Vancouver.

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That's where our head office is.

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But as you said, we've been in
Kelowna now for...

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Honestly, it's been about a year
and a half.

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We haven't really grown our
presence a lot there.

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But we do have an office and we
have a few agents up there.

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We also are in Victoria and we've
recently this year expanded into

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Seattle and Palm Springs.

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Oh, cool.

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Yeah.

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I didn't know that.

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Cool.

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Forgive my ignorance.

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Do most brokerages have an
intelligence sector?

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Like it seems to me like a huge
value add for employees and

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clients, but yeah, is this a bit
of a niche for the industry?

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Yeah, I would say, yeah.

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So Erlin, you came on with Andy

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Ramlow, how many years ago to kind
of start this up?

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this up?
So intelligence became a thing at

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Rennie eight years ago.

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You don't see it in this sector.

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It's kind of a unique function.

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Well, I've talked to other people

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at other brokerages and
development companies.

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They're looking at like, should we
have an intelligence function?

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It's one of those things where you
really have to value what an

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intelligence group brings to the
table, what sort of the

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researchers and the analysts bring
to the table.

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Everybody likes understanding the
market.

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Everyone likes data.

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But I think what's different here,

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Rennie, is that when Chris Rennie,
who is our CEO, when he sort of

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took over day-to-day operations of
the business eight,9 years ago, he

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really wanted to have that
function in-house.

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And he believed that it set up the
company for a sustainable,

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successful existence over the
longer term to have that kind of

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function in-house.

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And he saw it as sort of being

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able to meet the needs of our
clients consistently going

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forward.

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And it's definitely unique.

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Ultimately, everybody's interested
in data.

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So you're seeing more and more
companies in the real estate

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space.

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They may not have a formal

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intelligence division, but I think
we're seeing more and more sort of

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data-driven decision-making.

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I was just going to I was just

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going to ask, so when you say
intelligence, I'm assuming you

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mean breaking down data.

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Where do you get your data?

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You get it from real estate
boards?

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You guys find your own?
Where do you scrape the data from?

252
00:07:53,762 --> 00:07:54,067
Yeah.

253
00:07:54,067 --> 00:07:55,820
So a little bit of everywhere.

254
00:07:55,820 --> 00:07:57,507
So definitely we get board data.

255
00:07:57,507 --> 00:07:58,833
So we subscribe, we get the live

256
00:07:58,833 --> 00:08:03,192
feed, the API, so we can, you
know, break it down in real time.

257
00:08:03,292 --> 00:08:07,040
And then also do a lot of
different things that maybe, you

258
00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,217
know, traditionally the boards
kind of give you that stats pack

259
00:08:09,217 --> 00:08:11,191
and that's sort of the way that
it's always worked.

260
00:08:11,191 --> 00:08:14,996
But we like to break things down
in a whole bunch of different

261
00:08:14,996 --> 00:08:15,130
ways.

262
00:08:14,127 --> 00:08:15,531
We don't want to be limited to

263
00:08:15,531 --> 00:08:18,811
just the way that, you know, we've
always done things a certain way.

264
00:08:18,811 --> 00:08:21,284
And so an example of that is we
now report on like just waterfront

265
00:08:21,284 --> 00:08:21,910
homes in Kelowna.

266
00:08:21,910 --> 00:08:23,580
That was sort of a thing that all

267
00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,382
of our advisors said, like, hey,
waterfronts, a specific product

268
00:08:26,382 --> 00:08:28,040
type, you know, everything's
geared around the lake.

269
00:08:28,380 --> 00:08:30,830
And so our team went and
painstakingly hand drew all these

270
00:08:30,730 --> 00:08:30,950
maps.

271
00:08:31,050 --> 00:08:32,565
And it's like, OK, this property

272
00:08:32,664 --> 00:08:33,740
here, this is waterfront.

273
00:08:33,740 --> 00:08:34,005
This one isn't.

274
00:08:34,005 --> 00:08:36,261
They went up and down both sides
of the lake.

275
00:08:36,261 --> 00:08:38,725
But, you a thing know, it's that
sort of thing of like, hey, what

276
00:08:38,725 --> 00:08:40,865
do people actually want?
And where is there sort of an

277
00:08:40,865 --> 00:08:42,173
opportunity to do things a little
bit better?

278
00:08:42,173 --> 00:08:44,648
Whether it's with the board data,
we use a lot of publicly available

279
00:08:44,748 --> 00:08:45,419
data as well.

280
00:08:45,319 --> 00:08:47,020
We rely on Stats Canada, CMHC, you

281
00:08:47,100 --> 00:08:49,555
know, some of it we pay for, some
of it's just freely available,

282
00:08:49,555 --> 00:08:52,640
but, you know, we deep dive, we
download, you know, the minutia of

283
00:08:52,633 --> 00:08:53,992
all of these different data sets.

284
00:08:53,992 --> 00:08:55,829
We have the luxury of getting the

285
00:08:55,929 --> 00:08:58,968
time to play in these spaces and
hopefully coming up with as many

286
00:08:58,968 --> 00:09:01,025
cool insights as we can.

287
00:09:01,025 --> 00:09:01,380
Yeah.

288
00:09:01,540 --> 00:09:02,741
Well, let's dive into it then.

289
00:09:02,841 --> 00:09:04,009
What's 2024 been like in

290
00:09:04,009 --> 00:09:05,928
Vancouver, Kelowna, provincially?
Like, you know, we hear a lot of

291
00:09:05,928 --> 00:08:52,440
stagnant, slow market, subject to
sale stuff.

292
00:09:06,782 --> 00:09:08,775
But in terms of, I don't know,
historically for the last 20

293
00:09:08,775 --> 00:09:10,590
years, what was the year like?
It's been tough.

294
00:09:10,580 --> 00:09:10,770
been tough.

295
00:09:10,770 --> 00:09:11,388
Well put.

296
00:09:11,388 --> 00:09:12,614
Yeah, it's been a tough year.

297
00:09:12,614 --> 00:09:14,154
I think there's no point in

298
00:09:14,054 --> 00:09:14,517
beating around the bush.

299
00:09:14,517 --> 00:09:16,060
Sales have been below average in

300
00:09:16,060 --> 00:09:19,011
Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria for
more than two years now, every

301
00:09:19,011 --> 00:09:19,330
single month.

302
00:09:19,330 --> 00:09:20,845
So if you look historically where

303
00:09:20,845 --> 00:09:23,794
we're at, it's been a below
average sales count.

304
00:09:23,894 --> 00:09:26,011
So we want to look at activity.

305
00:09:26,011 --> 00:09:27,960
Kelowna has been kind of hit the

306
00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:28,071
hardest.

307
00:09:28,071 --> 00:09:29,453
Sales have been the most below

308
00:09:29,453 --> 00:09:30,006
average at Kelowna.

309
00:09:30,006 --> 00:09:31,826
We can talk about some of the

310
00:09:31,826 --> 00:09:34,200
reasons why that market's been hit
a little bit harder.

311
00:09:34,380 --> 00:09:36,964
But I think provincially,
everywhere, it's been a really

312
00:09:36,964 --> 00:09:37,752
tough year.

313
00:09:37,752 --> 00:09:42,635
And it all really comes back to

314
00:09:42,535 --> 00:09:46,810
this market has been defined by
high interest rates that have been

315
00:09:46,810 --> 00:09:48,551
in response to high inflation.

316
00:09:48,451 --> 00:09:50,743
And so in the all the time that

317
00:09:50,843 --> 00:09:53,560
I've been in real estate, it's
never been about one thing as much

318
00:09:53,560 --> 00:09:55,790
as it has been these last couple
of years.

319
00:09:55,790 --> 00:09:56,735
That's a good good
characterization.

320
00:09:56,735 --> 00:09:59,934
There's also there's been this
collision between an unfavorable

321
00:09:59,934 --> 00:10:04,393
macroeconomic environment, if you
will, like we've got a pretty slow

322
00:10:04,393 --> 00:10:05,236
job market.

323
00:10:05,136 --> 00:10:08,140
And as why I said, you know, high

324
00:10:08,140 --> 00:10:10,940
interest rates have really bogged
down the housing market, both from

325
00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:12,684
the development side and also from
the buyer side.

326
00:10:12,684 --> 00:10:14,946
But there's been this collision
with also policy in this province

327
00:10:14,946 --> 00:10:17,138
that in some instances has been
very supportive or encouraging of

328
00:10:17,138 --> 00:10:18,023
new supply, which is great.

329
00:10:18,023 --> 00:10:19,700
I think we all know that we need

330
00:10:19,740 --> 00:10:22,229
to be expanding our supply of
housing consistently over time,

331
00:10:22,229 --> 00:10:24,296
especially in response to all of
the population growth we've seen

332
00:10:24,296 --> 00:10:25,600
over the past few years.

333
00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:27,437
We've also had a lot of policy

334
00:10:27,437 --> 00:10:29,231
implemented recently that really
targets investors.

335
00:10:29,231 --> 00:10:30,198
Think what you will about
investors, right?

336
00:10:30,198 --> 00:10:31,222
Everyone has an opinion about
them.

337
00:10:31,322 --> 00:10:33,657
The reality is when it comes to
delivering new housing supply, the

338
00:10:33,657 --> 00:10:35,718
investor segment of the market is
really, really important for

339
00:10:35,718 --> 00:10:39,076
developers and for projects to
meet their sales thresholds so

340
00:10:39,076 --> 00:10:41,244
they become financially viable.

341
00:10:41,344 --> 00:10:42,952
They're able to access financing

342
00:10:42,952 --> 00:10:43,928
to actually start building.

343
00:10:43,928 --> 00:10:45,418
A lot of that demand from the

344
00:10:45,518 --> 00:10:46,500
investors has gone away.

345
00:10:46,491 --> 00:10:47,877
We're seeing projects that aren't

346
00:10:47,877 --> 00:10:49,421
launching because developers are
the risk averse.

347
00:10:49,421 --> 00:10:50,458
They're very cautious.

348
00:10:50,458 --> 00:10:51,552
They're worried that the project

349
00:10:51,552 --> 00:10:57,729
won't be viable, that they won't
be able to sell as much as they

350
00:10:57,729 --> 00:10:58,320
need to.

351
00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,647
And then the projects that we've

352
00:11:00,647 --> 00:11:03,951
sold, between 2021 and 2023,
investors accounted for about half

353
00:11:03,951 --> 00:11:04,799
of all pre-sale purchases.

354
00:11:04,799 --> 00:11:06,244
Through the first half of this

355
00:11:06,244 --> 00:11:08,720
year, they've accounted for about
a quarter.

356
00:11:08,620 --> 00:11:10,072
And it makes sense.

357
00:11:10,072 --> 00:11:11,970
I mean, the cash flow situation

358
00:11:11,970 --> 00:11:14,383
for investors, if you're buying
new, even with higher rents, it's

359
00:11:14,383 --> 00:11:14,709
pretty ugly.

360
00:11:14,709 --> 00:11:18,653
Your monthly cash flow is going to

361
00:11:18,553 --> 00:11:21,990
be negative for a number of years,
at least.

362
00:11:21,990 --> 00:11:24,705
So those policies, I think that
like we're talking about the

363
00:11:24,705 --> 00:11:28,229
increase in the capital gains
inclusion rate at the federal

364
00:11:28,229 --> 00:11:31,561
level, the restrictions on short
term rentals, changes to the

365
00:11:31,561 --> 00:11:34,963
Residential Tenancy Act, which
come from a very good place, but

366
00:11:34,963 --> 00:11:38,815
all sort of restrict or constrain
investors' ability to participate

367
00:11:38,815 --> 00:11:40,638
by changing that risk reward
relationship.

368
00:11:40,638 --> 00:11:46,195
And we have a flipping tax, which
I think is set to be implemented

369
00:11:46,195 --> 00:11:49,153
in the new year.

370
00:11:49,153 --> 00:11:52,674
So it's been a lot of things.

371
00:11:52,574 --> 00:11:57,197
It's kind of been a lot of all at
once, right?

372
00:11:57,197 --> 00:11:58,768
It's really slowed things down.

373
00:11:58,768 --> 00:12:00,802
I guess in a perfect world, like,

374
00:12:00,802 --> 00:12:05,240
yeah, Matt and I have spoken a lot
about policy changes.

375
00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,246
It seems like every other week,
there's news coming out with

376
00:12:09,246 --> 00:12:12,470
something and then, you know, two
weeks go by and then they change

377
00:12:12,370 --> 00:12:13,220
the policy because it's not
correct.

378
00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,253
But I guess from an economic
standpoint, what is the perfect

379
00:12:16,353 --> 00:12:19,351
scenario if we could build one
for, you know, appreciation in

380
00:12:19,351 --> 00:12:21,014
those properties?
Like, obviously, we don't want the

381
00:12:21,014 --> 00:12:23,790
market just to crash and the
bottom to fall out of it.

382
00:12:23,786 --> 00:12:25,767
And we do understand that, you
know, provincially, they want

383
00:12:25,767 --> 00:12:26,228
affordable houses.

384
00:12:26,228 --> 00:12:27,610
But like, what is the perfect

385
00:12:27,710 --> 00:12:28,900
balance?
I guess, you know, should

386
00:12:28,900 --> 00:12:33,209
properties be appreciating by
three to 5% every year or?

387
00:12:33,209 --> 00:12:34,646
There is no magic number.

388
00:12:34,746 --> 00:12:38,059
I think if we want to get away

389
00:12:38,059 --> 00:12:44,489
from sort of I think if we want to
get away from sort of the

390
00:12:44,489 --> 00:12:46,616
commodification of housing, then
we shouldn't be, you know, trying

391
00:12:46,616 --> 00:12:49,328
to build a system that takes in,
you know, home price increases

392
00:12:49,428 --> 00:12:51,198
that are exceeding the ability of
the population to pay.

393
00:12:51,198 --> 00:12:53,847
So what is that?
Is that 2% a year, 3% a year,

394
00:12:53,847 --> 00:12:56,242
something like that?
I think at the end of the day, if

395
00:12:56,242 --> 00:12:59,579
you get away from the value part
of things, I mean, obviously, we

396
00:12:59,579 --> 00:13:01,440
want housing to be affordable.

397
00:13:01,540 --> 00:13:03,302
But I think before we talk about

398
00:13:03,302 --> 00:13:07,099
that, it's really about how do you
set the conditions such that

399
00:13:07,099 --> 00:13:09,854
regardless of, let's say, the
macroeconomic environment, how do

400
00:13:09,854 --> 00:13:13,464
we ensure that we have this
consistent flow of new housing to

401
00:13:13,364 --> 00:13:18,259
the extent that we need it, to the
extent that our population

402
00:13:18,259 --> 00:13:19,621
continues to grow and we need more
housing?

403
00:13:19,621 --> 00:13:20,480
I think that's the most important
thing.

404
00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:24,183
So supportive supply-side measures
are great, but I think looking on

405
00:13:24,083 --> 00:13:26,304
the other side too and
implementing policies that say,

406
00:13:26,404 --> 00:13:30,378
hey, we have some empty homes and
we think those should be filled

407
00:13:30,378 --> 00:13:30,657
up.

408
00:13:30,657 --> 00:13:31,496
So we're introducing certain

409
00:13:31,496 --> 00:13:32,753
policies to do that.

410
00:13:32,753 --> 00:13:33,941
Well, they have a knock-on effect

411
00:13:33,941 --> 00:13:33,661
because they dissuade some of the
catalysts for new supply from

412
00:13:33,661 --> 00:13:34,685
participating in the market.

413
00:13:34,685 --> 00:13:37,165
It's not reacting to the

414
00:13:37,165 --> 00:13:39,490
zeitgeist, right?
It's more just like it's thinking

415
00:13:39,490 --> 00:13:41,282
long-term, which politicians
aren't good at.

416
00:13:41,382 --> 00:13:42,436
They get it.

417
00:13:42,336 --> 00:13:42,719
Yeah.

418
00:13:42,719 --> 00:13:47,988
It doesn't doesn't get you voted
back in if you're thinking

419
00:13:47,988 --> 00:13:48,618
long-term, does it?
Yeah.

420
00:13:48,618 --> 00:13:51,125
And I would add that, you know,
depending on which analysis you

421
00:13:51,025 --> 00:13:53,986
look at, like we've been under
building in this country and in

422
00:13:53,886 --> 00:13:54,587
this province for decades.

423
00:13:54,587 --> 00:13:56,499
So like CMHC has a report that in

424
00:13:56,499 --> 00:13:58,754
Canada, we should build 3.5
million more homes than we

425
00:13:58,754 --> 00:14:00,964
otherwise would build by 2030,
just to get affordability levels

426
00:14:00,964 --> 00:14:01,384
back to 2003.

427
00:14:01,384 --> 00:14:05,272
We did a recent analysis at Metro

428
00:14:05,172 --> 00:14:08,862
levels where we said based on
household formation that we've

429
00:14:08,862 --> 00:14:11,420
probably underbuilt in Metro
Vancouver by about 45,000 homes in

430
00:14:11,420 --> 00:14:11,687
the Okanagan.

431
00:14:11,688 --> 00:14:12,811
It's a little over 2000 homes.

432
00:14:12,811 --> 00:14:15,700
Like these are big numbers in
terms of the amount of homes that

433
00:14:15,700 --> 00:14:17,287
we've been consistently
underbuilding year after year

434
00:14:17,287 --> 00:14:18,269
after year.

435
00:14:18,169 --> 00:14:21,009
And so I think, you know, most of

436
00:14:21,009 --> 00:14:23,992
that back to your question of
like, what's the best case

437
00:14:23,992 --> 00:14:25,995
scenario, I think it's all about
encouraging more housing supply,

438
00:14:25,995 --> 00:14:28,640
because we don't just need to
build for, you know, recent

439
00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,858
population growth, we need to sort
of make up that gap that we've

440
00:14:31,858 --> 00:14:33,653
been accumulating over the last
few decades.

441
00:14:33,653 --> 00:14:35,616
Yeah, you know, it's funny.

442
00:14:35,616 --> 00:14:37,444
So let's just say there's been

443
00:14:37,444 --> 00:14:40,988
like 20 some odd policies in the
last couple years that have come

444
00:14:40,988 --> 00:14:43,214
out to try and resolve this supply
and demand issue.

445
00:14:43,214 --> 00:14:46,498
And everyone keeps going back to
just like, we need to build more.

446
00:14:46,498 --> 00:14:48,678
But I guess, you know, federally,
they finally come to the

447
00:14:48,678 --> 00:14:50,617
conclusion that maybe the easier
solution is, hey, maybe our

448
00:14:50,617 --> 00:14:53,437
population needs to stop growing
as fast or like, you know,

449
00:14:53,537 --> 00:14:54,295
hindsight is 2020.

450
00:14:54,295 --> 00:14:55,772
Hey, three years ago, maybe we

451
00:14:55,872 --> 00:14:58,775
shouldn't have, you know,
encouraged 2020 hey three years

452
00:14:58,775 --> 00:15:01,708
ago maybe we shouldn't have you
know encouraged population growth

453
00:15:01,708 --> 00:15:04,734
so much so with recent government
policy around immigration and

454
00:15:04,734 --> 00:15:08,384
population growth do you see that
being the easiest solution out of

455
00:15:08,384 --> 00:15:11,862
everything that they've come out
with and they've tried everything

456
00:15:11,862 --> 00:15:14,553
else and everything else hasn't
worked so So finally, they're

457
00:15:14,553 --> 00:15:16,954
like, okay, this is a step we need
to take.

458
00:15:16,954 --> 00:15:19,728
I mean, I would say, you know,
stopping immigration or reducing

459
00:15:19,728 --> 00:15:22,475
population for a couple of years
isn't going to solve these

460
00:15:22,375 --> 00:15:23,010
long-term systemic issues.

461
00:15:23,010 --> 00:15:23,644
This recent announcement for

462
00:15:23,644 --> 00:15:25,337
immigration, we're effectively
saying we're going to see

463
00:15:25,337 --> 00:15:26,712
population decline for the next
two years.

464
00:15:26,712 --> 00:15:29,865
It's something we've never seen
before in Canada, but we've also

465
00:15:29,865 --> 00:15:33,046
never seen the level of population
growth we saw for the last two

466
00:15:33,046 --> 00:15:35,467
years where we added more than 2
million Canadians in a two-year

467
00:15:35,467 --> 00:15:35,673
period.

468
00:15:35,673 --> 00:15:37,854
So it's this crazy whiplash

469
00:15:37,754 --> 00:15:39,220
between one extreme to the next.

470
00:15:39,220 --> 00:15:41,175
We went back and looked all the

471
00:15:41,175 --> 00:15:41,803
way to Confederation.

472
00:15:41,803 --> 00:15:44,062
We've never had a single year of

473
00:15:44,062 --> 00:15:45,434
population decline in this
country.

474
00:15:45,434 --> 00:15:49,266
And now they say, oh, let's go
ahead and do two, and maybe

475
00:15:49,166 --> 00:15:49,981
that'll fix housing and
healthcare.

476
00:15:50,081 --> 00:15:53,449
You're not going to fix housing
and health care in two years.

477
00:15:53,449 --> 00:15:55,980
Sorry to be a little bit flippant
about that.

478
00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,334
But like we need sustained
immigration for our economy.

479
00:15:59,334 --> 00:16:00,547
We have an aging population.

480
00:16:00,647 --> 00:16:02,640
We have an aging workforce.

481
00:16:02,460 --> 00:16:04,250
You know, we need that sort of
immigration level that we had

482
00:16:04,170 --> 00:16:05,340
pre-pandemic or somewhere around
there, like, you know, 1% annual

483
00:16:05,340 --> 00:16:07,260
growth rate for population.

484
00:16:07,260 --> 00:16:11,008
And so it seems like so many of

485
00:16:11,008 --> 00:16:14,960
these policies are, you know,
again, they're short term thinking

486
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,180
it's responding to the latest
challenge with the next policy

487
00:16:18,180 --> 00:16:21,367
that, you know, you don't fully
consider all the unintended

488
00:16:21,367 --> 00:16:22,390
consequences of it.

489
00:16:22,390 --> 00:16:24,345
And I expect that with population

490
00:16:24,245 --> 00:16:27,344
decline over the next year or two,
we're going to see real pains in

491
00:16:27,244 --> 00:16:30,799
the economy, and particularly in
the labor market that will lead to

492
00:16:30,799 --> 00:16:31,753
more policy changes.

493
00:16:31,753 --> 00:16:34,204
I think there's danger in, you

494
00:16:34,104 --> 00:16:37,958
know, fostering an environment of,
you know, policy or economic

495
00:16:37,958 --> 00:16:39,023
uncertainty and unpredictable
volatility, right?

496
00:16:39,023 --> 00:16:40,507
And so that's what we're looking
at.

497
00:16:40,407 --> 00:16:42,331
And we just came through this with
COVID.

498
00:16:42,431 --> 00:16:44,980
Like, we're coming up on five
years of this and that.

499
00:16:44,980 --> 00:16:45,510
Everything is unprecedented,
right?

500
00:16:45,510 --> 00:16:46,377
And it's just, it's exhausting.

501
00:16:46,377 --> 00:16:47,726
And we're just coming out of that

502
00:16:47,726 --> 00:16:48,160
period.

503
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:50,400
And now on the policy front, we're

504
00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,200
back talking about unprecedented
changes to immigration and

505
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:54,241
migration flows and population
growth.

506
00:16:54,229 --> 00:16:56,760
As Y said, you know, we're going
to see two years of population

507
00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:58,991
decline from a business
perspective, even from an

508
00:16:58,891 --> 00:16:59,237
individual perspective.

509
00:16:59,237 --> 00:17:00,562
If we have these dramatic shifts

510
00:17:00,562 --> 00:17:03,667
in policy, like how we're trying
to solve the challenges that we

511
00:17:03,667 --> 00:17:05,715
have, it becomes a not very
enticing environment for people to

512
00:17:05,715 --> 00:17:06,477
participate in.

513
00:17:06,477 --> 00:17:07,785
It can paralyze the economy from

514
00:17:07,785 --> 00:17:09,214
the viewpoint of investment.

515
00:17:09,214 --> 00:17:11,349
And whether it's like financial

516
00:17:11,349 --> 00:17:13,680
investment or human capital
investment in an economy.

517
00:17:13,859 --> 00:17:16,606
So the permanent resident targets
have been reduced up until the

518
00:17:16,606 --> 00:17:20,223
announcement, what was it, a month
ago now, a few weeks ago.

519
00:17:20,324 --> 00:17:23,484
For next year and the year after,
we were expecting 500 PR

520
00:17:23,484 --> 00:17:24,285
admissions to this country.

521
00:17:24,285 --> 00:17:26,010
And that's now down to, I think,

522
00:17:26,109 --> 00:17:27,117
395 and 380.

523
00:17:27,117 --> 00:17:29,151
And then another year after that

524
00:17:29,151 --> 00:17:29,705
at 365.

525
00:17:29,705 --> 00:17:30,937
That's kind of understandable.

526
00:17:30,937 --> 00:17:32,292
That is a big downshift.

527
00:17:32,292 --> 00:17:35,248
It but you go okay well maybe we

528
00:17:35,348 --> 00:17:38,981
sort of taper it off at the same
time they put caps on the number

529
00:17:38,881 --> 00:17:42,084
of temporary residents that they
would like to see in Canada so

530
00:17:42,084 --> 00:17:43,931
international students temporary
foreign workers and that sort of

531
00:17:43,931 --> 00:17:48,971
thing that's what's really going
to drive our growth rate down is

532
00:17:48,971 --> 00:17:54,113
pushing out each of the next two
years 500,000 people it's a

533
00:17:54,213 --> 00:17:57,160
powerful tool but I think we
should wield it, you know,

534
00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:57,240
carefully.

535
00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:57,440
Yeah.

536
00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,604
I mean, we spoke a lot about like
volatility with policy changes

537
00:17:59,580 --> 00:18:02,333
with the provincial election over,
which seems like it went on

538
00:18:02,333 --> 00:18:06,046
forever because counting ballots,
like it's the weirdest election

539
00:18:06,046 --> 00:18:06,279
ever.

540
00:18:06,279 --> 00:18:07,756
Now that that's over, obviously

541
00:18:07,756 --> 00:18:10,710
federally, there'll be one coming
up pretty quickly here.

542
00:18:10,710 --> 00:18:17,179
Like, I feel like you're more in
tune with it being, you know, in a

543
00:18:17,179 --> 00:18:18,646
bigger city and obviously studying
this stuff.

544
00:18:18,646 --> 00:18:22,140
But can we expect less volatility
and less policy changes now that

545
00:18:22,140 --> 00:18:24,090
like the political campaign is
done provincially?

546
00:18:24,090 --> 00:18:26,763
Like, yeah, there's obviously
still going to be some, you know,

547
00:18:26,763 --> 00:18:26,930
federally.

548
00:18:26,930 --> 00:18:29,465
But can we all like, take a sigh

549
00:18:29,465 --> 00:18:35,343
of relief and be like, we should
be in the clear for the next year

550
00:18:35,343 --> 00:18:41,558
to just like not have to watch the
news every day i think so i so i

551
00:18:41,658 --> 00:18:46,081
think this government will focus
more on all of these policy

552
00:18:46,081 --> 00:18:48,782
changes they've done to implement
they're still trying to get some

553
00:18:48,682 --> 00:18:50,361
of them through whether it's
housing targets you know getting

554
00:18:50,361 --> 00:18:53,297
all the municipalities on board or
implementing some of that

555
00:18:53,297 --> 00:18:55,756
multiplex zoning across the
province where there's been some

556
00:18:55,856 --> 00:18:59,570
pushback so i think we're going to
see more of that implementation of

557
00:18:59,470 --> 00:19:03,286
that agenda that they campaigned
on that they started on

558
00:19:03,186 --> 00:19:03,357
previously.

559
00:19:03,357 --> 00:19:05,320
So I would say probably, I think

560
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:05,634
so.

561
00:19:05,634 --> 00:19:07,280
But there are still, I think, some

562
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:08,142
more to come.

563
00:19:08,142 --> 00:19:09,475
Like Berlin already mentioned, you

564
00:19:09,475 --> 00:19:11,894
know, the flipping taxes to come
into effect.

565
00:19:11,894 --> 00:19:14,531
They talked about increasing the
spec and vacancy tax rate.

566
00:19:14,531 --> 00:19:15,741
So that's still probably to come.

567
00:19:15,741 --> 00:19:17,035
Like, there are still probably

568
00:19:17,035 --> 00:19:17,736
some more changes.

569
00:19:17,736 --> 00:19:18,923
But overall, I think they're going

570
00:19:18,923 --> 00:19:22,028
to focus more on implementing
their agenda that they've already

571
00:19:22,028 --> 00:19:22,590
canceled too.

572
00:19:22,590 --> 00:19:22,670
Yeah.

573
00:19:22,670 --> 00:19:23,072
Okay.

574
00:19:23,072 --> 00:19:23,232
Okay.

575
00:19:23,232 --> 00:19:27,363
Well, maybe to spin this a little
more optimistically, I'm hoping,

576
00:19:27,363 --> 00:19:30,733
how's 2025 shaping up to be?
Like, it seems like the market's

577
00:19:30,733 --> 00:19:34,604
gaining some momentum, like even
in Kelowna where the fall winter

578
00:19:34,604 --> 00:19:39,353
is usually a slower season, it
seems like activity is starting to

579
00:19:39,353 --> 00:19:40,162
pick up.

580
00:19:40,062 --> 00:19:42,124
What are you guys seeing?

581
00:19:42,124 --> 00:19:45,384
I mean, I think broadly, and then
drill down to Kelowna, we've been

582
00:19:45,384 --> 00:19:46,887
saying that 2025 is going to be
average.

583
00:19:46,887 --> 00:19:48,217
Which is up from now.

584
00:19:48,217 --> 00:19:48,935
Well, exactly.

585
00:19:49,035 --> 00:19:49,417
Yeah.

586
00:19:49,317 --> 00:19:49,508
Yeah.

587
00:19:49,508 --> 00:19:52,566
It doesn't necessarily sound on
the surface like something to get

588
00:19:52,566 --> 00:19:53,076
excited about.

589
00:19:53,076 --> 00:19:54,556
But because we've been distinctly

590
00:19:54,556 --> 00:19:58,199
below average in so many regards
the past couple of years, to the

591
00:19:58,199 --> 00:20:00,684
extent that we are average from
the perspective of inventory sort

592
00:20:00,684 --> 00:20:02,857
of leveling out and stabilizing
sales, increasing a more liquid

593
00:20:02,857 --> 00:20:04,664
market, right?
Because what we're right now, we

594
00:20:04,664 --> 00:20:07,122
have almost paralysis in our
market on both the listing side

595
00:20:07,122 --> 00:20:07,628
and the buy side.

596
00:20:07,628 --> 00:20:09,725
I think with more stability in

597
00:20:09,725 --> 00:20:12,847
inflation, I mean, we've been sub
2% as far as headline inflation is

598
00:20:12,847 --> 00:20:13,839
concerned, the last two readings.

599
00:20:13,837 --> 00:20:15,487
I think from our perspective, Bank

600
00:20:15,487 --> 00:20:18,285
of Canada has got inflation under
control in the near term.

601
00:20:18,285 --> 00:20:21,152
I hope those words don't come back
to haunt me.

602
00:20:21,152 --> 00:20:24,124
But our outlook is for inflation
to remain in that 1% to 3% band

603
00:20:24,124 --> 00:20:27,680
over the coming year, which then
gives the Bank of Canada space to

604
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:31,569
bring down interest rates to a,
you know, what they call a neutral

605
00:20:31,569 --> 00:20:32,905
level, that overnight rate being
between 225 and 325.

606
00:20:32,905 --> 00:20:35,585
So, you know, we're probably going
to see five-year fixed mortgage

607
00:20:35,585 --> 00:20:38,634
rates or uninsured mortgages
around, you know, 4%, but you

608
00:20:38,634 --> 00:20:42,079
might be able to get a little bit
lower than that.

609
00:20:42,079 --> 00:20:45,017
I mean, you guys might be able to
speak to that as well.

610
00:20:45,015 --> 00:20:47,757
The point is not the level of
these things, but more that

611
00:20:47,749 --> 00:20:50,398
there's stability in those
elements, which then give

612
00:20:50,398 --> 00:20:54,482
confidence to developers to sort
of commit to purchasing land and

613
00:20:54,482 --> 00:20:57,984
financing projects and actually
bringing them to market, knowing

614
00:20:57,884 --> 00:21:01,580
that there's probably going to be
buyers out there.

615
00:21:01,580 --> 00:21:05,460
I think on that side of things, we
expect sales both in resale and

616
00:21:05,460 --> 00:21:07,702
presale to move back to sort of
the historical average, not to

617
00:21:07,702 --> 00:21:10,736
exceed it, but move back to that
average, which would represent a

618
00:21:10,736 --> 00:21:13,136
welcome change, I think, for
everybody and without seeing

619
00:21:13,136 --> 00:21:13,855
dramatic changes in values.

620
00:21:13,955 --> 00:21:15,540
Like housing, we expect over the

621
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,216
next 6 to 12 months is going to
become more affordable.

622
00:21:18,216 --> 00:21:20,782
It's still going to be very
expensive, but with continued

623
00:21:20,782 --> 00:21:23,272
modest increases in incomes,
falling interest rates, and prices

624
00:21:23,272 --> 00:21:26,916
not really ticking up too much, we
think we can see increased

625
00:21:26,916 --> 00:21:30,497
activity in the market without
seeing values really pushed

626
00:21:30,497 --> 00:21:30,664
upwards.

627
00:21:30,664 --> 00:21:33,881
Sorry, when you mean average, I

628
00:21:33,881 --> 00:21:37,809
think for an economist to say that
it's pretty optimistic, or maybe

629
00:21:37,809 --> 00:21:39,875
I'm just putting your words in my
mouth.

630
00:21:39,875 --> 00:21:43,141
but like average in terms of, I
think last year, or maybe even

631
00:21:43,141 --> 00:21:46,294
partial of this year, like the
Okanagan market, we were down on

632
00:21:46,294 --> 00:21:50,668
sales, like 16% from the previous
year, which was like pretty low.

633
00:21:50,668 --> 00:21:54,093
But do you mean average in terms
of like, you know, over the past

634
00:21:54,093 --> 00:21:56,446
10 years, we're kind of be back on
track average wise.

635
00:21:56,446 --> 00:22:00,285
So it, you know, it should be like
a fairly strong market in terms of

636
00:22:00,285 --> 00:22:00,430
transactions.

637
00:22:00,430 --> 00:22:02,640
Yeah, I would say, yeah, I think

638
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,200
we've already seen some movement
back towards average, again, in

639
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:06,092
Vancouver and Victoria.

640
00:22:06,192 --> 00:22:07,402
Those two markets have started to

641
00:22:07,401 --> 00:22:08,334
move first already.

642
00:22:08,235 --> 00:22:10,215
And again, Kelowna's been hit a

643
00:22:10,215 --> 00:22:11,163
little bit harder.

644
00:22:11,063 --> 00:22:14,459
And I think a lot of that is,

645
00:22:14,459 --> 00:22:18,278
again, investor and recreational
buyers maybe being squeezed out a

646
00:22:18,278 --> 00:22:19,855
little more on some of that policy
stuff, especially like the

647
00:22:19,855 --> 00:22:21,503
short-term rental restrictions, I
think have impacted Kelowna more

648
00:22:21,503 --> 00:22:22,325
than any other market.

649
00:22:22,325 --> 00:22:23,970
So maybe not quite to the same

650
00:22:23,970 --> 00:22:25,867
level, again, as Vancouver and
Victoria, but ultimately, yeah,

651
00:22:25,867 --> 00:22:31,244
like back to kind of a past decade
average or close to that level.

652
00:22:31,244 --> 00:22:36,543
So, you know, I think we would
expect things will feel a lot

653
00:22:36,543 --> 00:22:39,401
different next year because there
will be a lot more transactions

654
00:22:39,401 --> 00:22:39,506
happening.

655
00:22:39,506 --> 00:22:41,263
And without a lot of price growth,

656
00:22:41,263 --> 00:22:45,059
I think there'll be, you know, a
bit more value for those buyers as

657
00:22:45,059 --> 00:22:46,113
rates continue to come down.

658
00:22:46,113 --> 00:22:48,463
What do you think about the

659
00:22:48,363 --> 00:22:50,120
recreational market in Kelowna
even long term?

660
00:22:50,120 --> 00:22:53,110
Can you even have a recreational
property right now?

661
00:22:53,010 --> 00:22:56,855
Besides Big White, you've got
vacancy tax, you can't Airbnb it.

662
00:22:56,955 --> 00:22:58,110
I'll show show you.

663
00:22:58,110 --> 00:22:58,862
I was prepping for this.

664
00:22:58,862 --> 00:22:59,803
I printed the map.

665
00:22:59,803 --> 00:23:02,394
So green, you are subject to spec

666
00:23:02,394 --> 00:23:03,588
and vacancy tax.

667
00:23:03,488 --> 00:23:03,967
Yes, yes.

668
00:23:03,967 --> 00:23:05,607
Yeah, it's tough.

669
00:23:05,607 --> 00:23:08,547
I'd say, you know, go buy a shoe

670
00:23:08,547 --> 00:23:09,436
shop instead.

671
00:23:09,436 --> 00:23:10,805
Because that's where you own,

672
00:23:10,805 --> 00:23:11,267
right?
Yeah, that's right.

673
00:23:11,267 --> 00:23:13,984
I'm a fan of this kind of place.

674
00:23:13,984 --> 00:23:14,678
that's right.

675
00:23:14,678 --> 00:23:17,849
I'm a fan of this kind of place.

676
00:23:17,849 --> 00:23:18,959
A little shameless plug.

677
00:23:18,959 --> 00:23:19,167
plug.

678
00:23:19,167 --> 00:23:20,900
Yeah, no, it's tough.

679
00:23:20,900 --> 00:23:23,581
Like even, you said big white,
even Predator Ridge is subject to

680
00:23:23,581 --> 00:23:24,704
spec and vacancy tax.

681
00:23:24,804 --> 00:23:24,953
I know.

682
00:23:24,953 --> 00:23:25,514
I know.

683
00:23:25,614 --> 00:23:27,322
Which I find a little bit strange.

684
00:23:27,422 --> 00:23:28,569
So there's some pockets.

685
00:23:28,669 --> 00:23:30,215
But I think that recreation buyer,

686
00:23:30,115 --> 00:23:32,259
like it's going to be tough for a
while.

687
00:23:32,259 --> 00:23:32,871
I know.

688
00:23:32,971 --> 00:23:34,721
that a mix of sort of investor but

689
00:23:34,721 --> 00:23:37,432
especially that right buyer and
that 25 declined a lot last year

690
00:23:37,432 --> 00:23:40,008
and is basically on par with other
markets this year and i think

691
00:23:40,008 --> 00:23:44,096
we're going to see that rec buyer
kind of be sidelined for a little

692
00:23:44,096 --> 00:23:47,199
bit longer until we get a bit more
sense for what the long-term

693
00:23:47,199 --> 00:23:50,384
impacts of these people yeah like
even longer like as yeah like even

694
00:23:50,384 --> 00:23:52,913
longer like as long as the
speculation tax is there seems

695
00:23:52,913 --> 00:23:55,814
like it doesn't ever come back
yeah and i think like also with

696
00:23:55,814 --> 00:23:58,690
the short-term rental restrictions
like and i think like also with

697
00:23:58,683 --> 00:24:01,070
the short-term rental restrictions
like some of those buyers are you

698
00:24:01,070 --> 00:24:05,657
know i want to use some of the
time i want to be on airbnb some

699
00:24:05,657 --> 00:24:09,990
of the time especially on some of
those you know condos that sort of

700
00:24:09,890 --> 00:24:12,040
downtown colonna before some of
the zoning rules change but yeah

701
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,308
those buyers they're sidelined
right now of to be on airbnb some

702
00:24:15,308 --> 00:24:18,245
of some of they're sidelined right
now for sure collectively i don't

703
00:24:18,245 --> 00:24:21,326
think we should hold our breaths
for i don't think we should hold

704
00:24:21,326 --> 00:24:23,891
our breaths for any any reductions
or removals in the speculation of

705
00:24:23,891 --> 00:24:24,301
vacancy tax.

706
00:24:24,301 --> 00:24:25,738
I think, wise, you mentioned that

707
00:24:25,738 --> 00:24:28,023
this government is looking at
increasing wise, you that,

708
00:24:28,023 --> 00:24:29,504
actually, in the near term.

709
00:24:29,493 --> 00:24:31,290
I think there's some potential for

710
00:24:31,290 --> 00:24:32,445
those short-term rental
restrictions.

711
00:24:32,445 --> 00:24:36,411
There's a couple of layers to it,
but for those short-term rental

712
00:24:36,411 --> 00:24:38,618
restrictions to be scaled back,
there's issues because you have

713
00:24:38,618 --> 00:24:41,182
the policy at the provincial
level, but then you also have

714
00:24:41,182 --> 00:24:45,116
municipalities that are also keen
in certain instances to have some

715
00:24:45,116 --> 00:24:46,144
form of it.

716
00:24:46,044 --> 00:24:47,566
I'm optimistic that we give it a

717
00:24:47,566 --> 00:24:52,772
little bit more time, we'll have
the benefit of being able to look

718
00:24:52,763 --> 00:24:52,967
back on the data and say, okay,
what was the impact of the

719
00:24:52,967 --> 00:24:56,520
short-term rental restrictions?
We know StatsCan did a study that

720
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,716
showed that short-term rentals is
the share of the dwelling stock.

721
00:24:58,616 --> 00:24:59,497
It's very small.

722
00:24:59,497 --> 00:25:00,793
We're talking like 2% to 3%.

723
00:25:00,793 --> 00:25:02,404
Yeah, a little bit higher in
Kelowna, but nationally, I think

724
00:25:02,404 --> 00:25:02,934
really, really low.

725
00:25:02,934 --> 00:25:05,736
And even in the city of Vancouver,

726
00:25:05,736 --> 00:25:10,190
I think it's only 2.8%.

727
00:25:10,190 --> 00:25:14,129
So yeah, it is a bit higher in

728
00:25:14,029 --> 00:25:14,643
Kelowna.

729
00:25:14,643 --> 00:25:17,715
But within that, there's only a

730
00:25:17,715 --> 00:25:23,243
fraction of those that are
actually suitable for long-term

731
00:25:23,243 --> 00:25:26,900
occupancy because there's all
kinds of forms of short-term

732
00:25:26,900 --> 00:25:29,433
rentals, like rooms and tents and
caravans and all these things,

733
00:25:29,433 --> 00:25:30,875
right?
So the immediate impact of these

734
00:25:30,875 --> 00:25:33,260
restrictions is kind of flood the
market, impact rental markets to

735
00:25:33,260 --> 00:25:35,180
impact the for-sale market because
you have investors now that rely

736
00:25:35,180 --> 00:25:37,599
on that cashflow and now need to
sell.

737
00:25:37,599 --> 00:25:38,907
But long-term, again, this is not
a solution to the lack of

738
00:25:38,907 --> 00:25:39,953
availability and housing.

739
00:25:39,953 --> 00:25:41,195
And I think there's probably a

740
00:25:41,195 --> 00:25:43,026
balance, especially for markets
like Kelowna, where it's, you

741
00:25:43,026 --> 00:25:45,444
know, the tourism dollar matters a
lot there.

742
00:25:45,444 --> 00:25:44,800
And if you remove the short term
rentals completely, well, you're

743
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,250
now having a profound economic
impact.

744
00:25:46,250 --> 00:25:46,894
So I'm hopeful.

745
00:25:46,894 --> 00:25:47,861
I know nothing, but I'm hopeful

746
00:25:47,861 --> 00:25:48,720
that maybe we'll see a fight.

747
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:49,880
Yeah, that's still more than still

748
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,420
more than matinee yeah i just want
to like the leverage on the hotel

749
00:25:53,420 --> 00:25:58,052
i just want to like the leverage
on the hotel stock is so much

750
00:25:58,052 --> 00:25:49,697
bigger like there's 4,500 hotel
rooms in colonna it's a much

751
00:25:54,361 --> 00:26:01,201
smaller sort of base that when you
start taking things out of the

752
00:26:01,201 --> 00:26:01,705
accommodation side on the tourism
like the impact is so much greater

753
00:26:01,705 --> 00:26:05,421
on tourism and you guys would know
it's better than us but like

754
00:26:05,421 --> 00:26:09,255
looking at hotel rooms at Kuala,
you can't find anything for over

755
00:26:09,255 --> 00:26:07,259
$500 a night right now.

756
00:26:07,159 --> 00:26:12,680
We've spoken about this a bunch on

757
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:13,234
the show.

758
00:26:13,234 --> 00:26:15,539
It's not an easy issue to talk

759
00:26:15,539 --> 00:26:19,920
about, and there is no easy
solution, but you hit the nail on

760
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,420
the head when it's like, okay,
yeah, you remove that Airbnb stock

761
00:26:23,420 --> 00:26:25,945
or the investor appetite because
the numbers just don't pencil out

762
00:26:25,945 --> 00:26:26,209
now.

763
00:26:26,209 --> 00:26:27,861
investor appetite because the

764
00:26:27,861 --> 00:26:29,711
numbers just don't pencil out now.

765
00:26:29,711 --> 00:26:31,205
Well, that does trickle down to

766
00:26:31,205 --> 00:26:33,349
the effect where the people that
are now earning income based on

767
00:26:33,349 --> 00:26:35,537
tourism at restaurants or wineries
or anything that we're built from

768
00:26:35,537 --> 00:26:37,285
in this economy, now their
income's getting less.

769
00:26:37,285 --> 00:26:40,731
So now they can't afford those
units even if they come on the

770
00:26:40,731 --> 00:26:42,136
market or rent does lower.

771
00:26:42,136 --> 00:26:44,624
So yeah, you got to have a bit of

772
00:26:44,724 --> 00:26:45,480
a balance.

773
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,275
And I think what they did, you

774
00:26:47,275 --> 00:26:51,762
know, last year or this year, I
guess, was just wipe it out with a

775
00:26:51,762 --> 00:26:53,543
blanket and it should be a bit
more specific.

776
00:26:53,543 --> 00:26:55,840
So yeah, hopefully we see that to
be reanalyzed in the future.

777
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,623
But what do you see an asset class
right now that's maybe undervalued

778
00:26:59,623 --> 00:27:02,489
with a lot of these policy
changes?

779
00:27:02,489 --> 00:27:05,993
you Like, with know, a lot of
these policy changes, like, you

780
00:27:05,993 --> 00:27:08,474
know, with a lot of volatility and
difficult times, there's always

781
00:27:08,474 --> 00:27:09,740
like an opportunity somewhere.

782
00:27:09,740 --> 00:27:11,692
Like in Kelowna, it seems like we

783
00:27:11,692 --> 00:27:16,043
have a lot of condos coming on the
market, a lot of purpose-built

784
00:27:16,043 --> 00:27:18,270
rentals with densification, right?
Provincially where we're at and

785
00:27:18,270 --> 00:27:18,966
Kelowna's really supported
densification.

786
00:27:19,066 --> 00:27:21,858
Even analyzing those properties,
it doesn't seem like it makes

787
00:27:21,858 --> 00:27:25,940
sense to tear down a million
dollar house and build a fourplex.

788
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,448
You know, are you guys seeing more
of that in Vancouver?

789
00:27:29,348 --> 00:27:31,943
Like, obviously, Vancouver has
been leading the way on this as

790
00:27:31,943 --> 00:27:32,358
well.

791
00:27:32,358 --> 00:27:34,530
We've seen a bit more.

792
00:27:34,530 --> 00:27:38,358
I think on the multiplex side,
it's still pretty early days.

793
00:27:38,458 --> 00:27:40,482
You know, there are applications.

794
00:27:40,482 --> 00:27:42,960
We haven't seen a lot of uptick

795
00:27:43,060 --> 00:27:45,350
just because of how recent the
policy changes.

796
00:27:45,350 --> 00:27:49,519
But if you go back a little bit
further, they did duplex zoning in

797
00:27:49,519 --> 00:27:47,923
the city of Vancouver.

798
00:27:47,923 --> 00:27:49,881
We've actually seen it to a point

799
00:27:49,881 --> 00:27:53,220
now, we can track half duplex
sales because there's so many of

800
00:27:53,220 --> 00:27:56,887
them in the city of Vancouver that
this is now like an asset class

801
00:27:56,887 --> 00:27:57,487
that exists.

802
00:27:57,487 --> 00:27:59,637
And it's priced kind of where you

803
00:27:59,637 --> 00:28:00,078
would expect.

804
00:28:00,078 --> 00:28:01,528
It's a little more expensive than

805
00:28:01,528 --> 00:28:03,563
a townhome, a little cheaper than
a detached home.

806
00:28:03,563 --> 00:28:05,741
And I think probably five years,
10 years down the road, that's

807
00:28:05,741 --> 00:28:07,211
sort of where multiplex kind of
fits in.

808
00:28:07,211 --> 00:28:10,500
But to your point about sort of
penciling the numbers, like if you

809
00:28:10,580 --> 00:28:13,589
are in Vancouver and you own a $3
million home, make the numbers

810
00:28:13,589 --> 00:28:16,025
work to buy that lot from that
home or maybe that downsizing

811
00:28:16,008 --> 00:28:21,086
boomer, like you still have to
make an offer that works for them

812
00:28:21,086 --> 00:28:27,903
and then turn around and make all
the numbers work on your

813
00:28:27,903 --> 00:28:28,202
performance.

814
00:28:28,202 --> 00:28:29,697
So it's not going to be easy.

815
00:28:29,668 --> 00:28:31,860
I don't think there's going to be
a massive uptick of these anytime

816
00:28:31,831 --> 00:28:31,959
soon.

817
00:28:31,959 --> 00:28:33,325
But I think at the margin, you

818
00:28:33,325 --> 00:28:37,506
know, it's more lots available,
but, you know, not any huge sort

819
00:28:37,606 --> 00:28:38,299
of numbers.

820
00:28:38,299 --> 00:28:40,234
You know, the single family

821
00:28:40,234 --> 00:28:43,042
segment, particularly in the lower
mainland, you know, the closer you

822
00:28:43,042 --> 00:28:45,716
get to sort of the historic core
of Metro Vancouver, single family

823
00:28:45,716 --> 00:28:47,780
homes, they're always going to be
theoretically in demand, you know,

824
00:28:47,780 --> 00:28:51,253
as people age and couple up and
have kids, there's always going to

825
00:28:51,153 --> 00:28:53,299
be demand there, but we have a
disappearing stock of detached

826
00:28:53,299 --> 00:28:53,664
homes.

827
00:28:53,664 --> 00:28:55,296
We have more detached homes today

828
00:28:55,396 --> 00:28:57,403
than we'll have at any point going
forward.

829
00:28:57,403 --> 00:29:00,456
So like from a value perspective,
there's a scarcity of supply

830
00:29:00,456 --> 00:29:01,493
feeding into that.

831
00:29:01,493 --> 00:29:03,914
And it says to me that, yeah, you

832
00:29:03,914 --> 00:29:04,859
know, the value and the
redevelopment potential, there's

833
00:29:04,681 --> 00:29:05,020
value in that over time.

834
00:29:04,911 --> 00:29:06,116
But I think what we need as a

835
00:29:06,116 --> 00:29:08,356
region, obviously, is we need more
homes built faster.

836
00:29:08,356 --> 00:29:11,486
So that points us more to the
condo end of the spectrum, the

837
00:29:11,486 --> 00:29:12,587
apartment end of the spectrum.

838
00:29:12,687 --> 00:29:14,869
But then, you know, that's not for

839
00:29:14,969 --> 00:29:18,438
everyone either, right?
In some ways, we're building those

840
00:29:18,438 --> 00:29:21,412
to meet the needs of today.

841
00:29:21,512 --> 00:29:23,624
But the question is, you know, as

842
00:29:23,624 --> 00:29:25,948
the city evolves, and our market
maybe at some point starts to

843
00:29:26,048 --> 00:29:28,737
stabilize and growth stabilizes,
do we have the right mix of

844
00:29:28,737 --> 00:29:31,109
housing?
So I think in order to achieve

845
00:29:31,100 --> 00:29:33,291
that, we got to be investing in
everything today.

846
00:29:33,291 --> 00:29:35,340
So I think there's a huge
opportunity from a demand

847
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,967
perspective in that sort of middle
housing space, as you said, ride,

848
00:29:38,867 --> 00:29:40,868
or wise, as we're calling it
today, duplexes, townhomes that

849
00:29:40,868 --> 00:29:43,289
are suitable to downsizers and
move uppers, they have a bit more

850
00:29:43,289 --> 00:29:45,788
space so you can comfortably live
as a family as well.

851
00:29:45,788 --> 00:29:47,808
It's a tough one because it
doesn't always pencil.

852
00:29:47,808 --> 00:29:49,700
And obviously, municipalities and
developers right now are both

853
00:29:49,700 --> 00:29:51,129
pushing for more and more density.

854
00:29:51,129 --> 00:29:53,080
But I think we need to sort of try

855
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,227
to balance out the supply that is
coming across the spectrum.

856
00:29:56,227 --> 00:29:58,960
Yeah, if you look at sort of the
share of housing look at sort of

857
00:29:59,020 --> 00:30:00,959
the share of housing stock,
whether it's in Kelowna,

858
00:30:00,959 --> 00:30:02,603
Vancouver, Victoria, we've
decreased the share of detached

859
00:30:02,603 --> 00:30:02,816
homes.

860
00:30:02,816 --> 00:30:03,945
We've increased the share of

861
00:30:03,945 --> 00:30:05,823
condos and townhomes have stayed
almost completely constant over

862
00:30:05,823 --> 00:30:08,272
the last couple of decades in all
three markets.

863
00:30:08,172 --> 00:30:10,842
We're building a few more
townhomes, but not as a share of

864
00:30:10,842 --> 00:30:12,407
our overall housing stock.

865
00:30:12,407 --> 00:30:14,631
And so for that, you know, that

866
00:30:14,631 --> 00:30:17,874
demand segment of, okay, I can't
afford necessarily the big house

867
00:30:17,874 --> 00:30:20,967
and big piece of land, but I want
a family-sized home for my growing

868
00:30:20,967 --> 00:30:21,127
family.

869
00:30:21,127 --> 00:30:22,033
There aren't necessarily more

870
00:30:22,033 --> 00:30:24,060
town-owned options available today
than there were 20 years ago.

871
00:30:24,060 --> 00:30:26,705
So lately there's been just a ton
of purposeful lately there's been

872
00:30:26,705 --> 00:30:28,915
just a ton of purposeful rentals
being built in Kelowna.

873
00:30:28,915 --> 00:30:32,015
I imagine Vancouver too, because
the first sale market is just not

874
00:30:31,915 --> 00:30:32,492
there for them.

875
00:30:32,492 --> 00:30:34,944
And I think that CMHC financing is

876
00:30:34,944 --> 00:30:38,762
really helping these builders just
pump them out like are we just

877
00:30:38,762 --> 00:30:42,258
going to end up with way too many
rental places around or like what

878
00:30:42,258 --> 00:30:46,022
has to change in our market for
that to change and for us to start

879
00:30:46,022 --> 00:30:48,452
building townhouses or like for
sale condos like do we just need

880
00:30:48,452 --> 00:30:51,222
something to stabilize hopefully
2025 comes out like you guys say

881
00:30:51,322 --> 00:30:54,041
it's just stable market then we
can start seeing these things

882
00:30:54,041 --> 00:30:56,991
again or are we just going to
endlessly build rental projects

883
00:30:57,091 --> 00:31:01,060
just because they pencil right now
i think you're you're right about

884
00:31:01,060 --> 00:31:03,727
part of the reason why we're
seeing so many new projects hit

885
00:31:03,727 --> 00:31:08,060
the market or being built but we
need it so in metro vancouver i

886
00:31:08,060 --> 00:31:11,222
have the data my fingertips all
just referenced it here the 17

887
00:31:11,322 --> 00:31:13,767
year period going back to 2007,
80% of the net growth in the

888
00:31:13,767 --> 00:31:16,056
rental condo apartment space was
due to growth in the secondary

889
00:31:16,156 --> 00:31:17,440
market, right?
So it's sort of the individual

890
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,511
investor owners that are renting
their condo out, as opposed to the

891
00:31:20,611 --> 00:31:21,875
purpose-built segment driving that
growth.

892
00:31:21,875 --> 00:31:24,638
It only accounted for about 20% of
the net growth.

893
00:31:24,638 --> 00:31:28,099
And up until about six or seven
years ago, 20% of the net growth.

894
00:31:28,099 --> 00:31:30,262
And up until about six or seven
years ago, we literally for a

895
00:31:30,262 --> 00:31:32,718
decade plus, maybe closer to two
decades, we saw a virtually

896
00:31:32,618 --> 00:31:34,330
unchanged stock of purpose-built
rentals in this region.

897
00:31:34,330 --> 00:31:35,922
It was 1991 to 2016.

898
00:31:35,922 --> 00:31:37,447
That's at a 25-year period.

899
00:31:37,547 --> 00:31:40,150
Over that period, our
purpose-built dwelling stock in

900
00:31:40,050 --> 00:31:44,686
Metro Vancouver basically didn't
grow, but our population grew by

901
00:31:44,686 --> 00:31:45,475
60%.

902
00:31:45,475 --> 00:31:48,600
So we are catching up with this

903
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:48,830
rental construction.

904
00:31:48,830 --> 00:31:49,808
It's really needed, especially as

905
00:31:49,808 --> 00:31:52,340
we grow as a region, as a
province, as a country, because

906
00:31:52,340 --> 00:31:53,973
we're not having enough kids.

907
00:31:53,873 --> 00:31:55,987
We're not growing because we're

908
00:31:55,987 --> 00:31:56,410
having babies.

909
00:31:56,410 --> 00:31:57,771
We're growing because people are

910
00:31:57,771 --> 00:31:58,267
moving here.

911
00:31:58,367 --> 00:32:00,036
And the data show that movers are

912
00:32:00,036 --> 00:32:00,461
overwhelmingly renters.

913
00:32:00,461 --> 00:32:01,735
And so, you know, you're

914
00:32:01,735 --> 00:32:04,783
absolutely right that we need, you
know, going back to this idea of a

915
00:32:04,783 --> 00:32:05,412
range of housing typologies.

916
00:32:05,412 --> 00:32:05,307
The rental piece, I think we could

917
00:32:05,307 --> 00:32:08,807
see a lot more of it and be okay
with it.

918
00:32:08,807 --> 00:32:12,247
Like the rental vacancy rate in
Metro Vancouver is sub 1%.

919
00:32:12,247 --> 00:32:13,785
I mean, it's the latest data.

920
00:32:13,785 --> 00:32:15,824
We'll get new data in a couple

921
00:32:15,824 --> 00:32:15,918
months.

922
00:32:15,918 --> 00:32:16,476
It's extraordinarily tight.

923
00:32:16,476 --> 00:32:19,013
So more of that, but also more
middle housing.

924
00:32:18,913 --> 00:32:21,925
As we bring more rental online,
hopefully we have fewer of these

925
00:32:21,925 --> 00:32:24,961
restricted policies that tell you
we have fewer of these restricted

926
00:32:24,861 --> 00:32:27,425
policies that tell you we can and
can't do it through property

927
00:32:27,525 --> 00:32:28,722
because we have a healthy vacancy
rate.

928
00:32:28,722 --> 00:32:31,308
You know, asking rents are
climbing astronomically while, you

929
00:32:31,308 --> 00:32:34,700
know, rents of existing tenants
fall behind with our sort of

930
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:35,093
current policy.

931
00:32:35,093 --> 00:32:37,513
So if we have like a 3% vacancy

932
00:32:35,093 --> 00:32:38,757
rate across the province, then we
could probably do with a few less

933
00:32:38,757 --> 00:32:41,977
ofancy rate across the then
province, we could probably do

934
00:32:41,977 --> 00:32:43,699
with a few less of these policies.

935
00:32:43,599 --> 00:32:45,526
So we had Wendy Waters on a couple

936
00:32:45,526 --> 00:32:46,651
of weeks ago.

937
00:32:46,651 --> 00:32:48,000
Wendy Waters on a couple of weeks

938
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:48,225
ago.

939
00:32:48,225 --> 00:32:50,162
She pointed out as well, we had a

940
00:32:50,162 --> 00:32:51,244
similar conversation.

941
00:32:51,244 --> 00:32:53,677
It was like, hey, the Strata Act

942
00:32:53,677 --> 00:32:54,128
came out.

943
00:32:54,128 --> 00:32:55,859
You could stratify and sell

944
00:32:55,859 --> 00:32:56,239
individual units.

945
00:32:56,239 --> 00:32:58,326
We kind of went away from those

946
00:32:58,326 --> 00:32:59,907
purpose-built rentals because
economically it made sense for

947
00:32:59,907 --> 00:33:01,885
builders to develop and sell.

948
00:33:01,885 --> 00:33:03,254
And now it doesn't really make

949
00:33:03,254 --> 00:33:03,432
sense.

950
00:33:03,432 --> 00:33:04,958
We're going back because you have

951
00:33:04,958 --> 00:33:06,770
a 50-year amortization at insured
rates on the MLA Select.

952
00:33:06,770 --> 00:33:09,876
A good point you guys raised there
is vacancy is kind of this taboo

953
00:33:09,876 --> 00:33:11,733
word of like, as an investor, you
don't want a lot of vacancy.

954
00:33:11,733 --> 00:33:14,891
And as the government, you want to
balance vacancy, but really as an

955
00:33:14,891 --> 00:33:17,140
investor, you do want vacancy
because then it allows tenants to

956
00:33:17,140 --> 00:33:17,499
move.

957
00:33:17,499 --> 00:33:20,910
You don't want a tenant to be in

958
00:33:20,910 --> 00:33:24,949
the same property for the next 20
years when they've outgrown it and

959
00:33:24,949 --> 00:33:27,911
their rent is from 20 years ago.

960
00:33:27,911 --> 00:33:28,749
You want movement.

961
00:33:28,749 --> 00:33:30,628
It makes everything better for the
market.

962
00:33:30,628 --> 00:33:34,397
We sometimes overanalyze and be
like, ah, this is what the market

963
00:33:34,397 --> 00:33:39,192
needs, but it will balance itself
out and a bit of vacancy is

964
00:33:39,192 --> 00:33:39,455
healthy.

965
00:33:39,455 --> 00:33:40,904
Yeah, we have historically low

966
00:33:40,904 --> 00:33:43,078
turnover rates in this province,
in this country right now.

967
00:33:43,078 --> 00:33:47,498
And that's the reason why people
don't want to move because they

968
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:48,227
are enjoying their below market
rents.

969
00:33:48,309 --> 00:33:49,776
A lot of them probably can't
afford some of the astronomical

970
00:33:49,776 --> 00:33:51,251
rents that are out there on the
open market.

971
00:33:51,233 --> 00:33:55,991
Okay, well, maybe we should move
into kind of our wrap up questions

972
00:33:55,991 --> 00:33:56,192
here.

973
00:33:56,192 --> 00:34:00,394
If you could buy a property in the

974
00:34:00,394 --> 00:34:03,754
Okanagan in the next 12 months,
what would it be?

975
00:34:03,754 --> 00:34:07,737
I think I think you guys know I'm
not buying a vacation home right

976
00:34:07,837 --> 00:34:08,882
now.

977
00:34:08,783 --> 00:34:11,527
Even though I don't want to pay

978
00:34:11,527 --> 00:34:12,248
speculation vacancy tax.

979
00:34:12,149 --> 00:34:13,677
But I think one opportunity that's

980
00:34:13,577 --> 00:34:14,880
there is with leaseholds.

981
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,739
So you can get an investment

982
00:34:16,739 --> 00:34:16,981
property.

983
00:34:16,981 --> 00:34:18,822
There's a lot of good options,

984
00:34:18,822 --> 00:34:20,524
especially in West Kelowna, where
you can get leasehold.

985
00:34:20,524 --> 00:34:23,964
It's not subject to all the same
restrictions.

986
00:34:24,063 --> 00:34:26,896
So you have a little bit more
flexibility.

987
00:34:26,795 --> 00:34:29,717
Also as an investment property,
you get the same rent for a lower

988
00:34:29,717 --> 00:34:31,420
door price.

989
00:34:31,420 --> 00:34:32,627
Leasehold generally appreciates it

990
00:34:32,627 --> 00:34:33,362
about the same amount.

991
00:34:33,362 --> 00:34:34,469
So I think there's an interesting

992
00:34:34,469 --> 00:34:36,692
opportunity for leasehold
availabilities that you don't get

993
00:34:36,692 --> 00:34:38,083
with a traditional freehold
product.

994
00:34:38,083 --> 00:34:40,245
And with a 99-year lease, I don't
plan to live that long.

995
00:34:40,245 --> 00:34:41,179
So I think I'm good there.

996
00:34:41,500 --> 00:34:44,389
And the new ones are 125 years.

997
00:34:44,289 --> 00:34:48,484
So honestly're it should be fine
yeah yeah that's a great answer it

998
00:34:48,484 --> 00:34:48,819
really a great answer it really is
a something that people need to

999
00:34:48,819 --> 00:34:51,353
explore more and there are some
awesome options in west columbia

1000
00:34:51,353 --> 00:34:54,254
for that i totally agree with that
are some awesome options in west

1001
00:34:54,353 --> 00:34:57,824
columbia for that i totally agree
with that yeah i'm deferring to

1002
00:34:57,724 --> 00:35:01,552
wise on that that's a good enough
answer for both of us okay both of

1003
00:35:01,552 --> 00:35:02,221
us okay all.

1004
00:35:02,221 --> 00:35:04,360
If you could give your your 20

1005
00:35:04,380 --> 00:35:04,638
year old self some advice, what
would it be?

1006
00:35:04,612 --> 00:35:04,844
Two pieces.

1007
00:35:04,692 --> 00:35:05,020
One is don't drink on is don't

1008
00:35:04,956 --> 00:35:05,468
drink on weekdays.

1009
00:35:05,468 --> 00:35:07,361
You're going to feel so much

1010
00:35:07,261 --> 00:35:07,411
better.

1011
00:35:07,411 --> 00:35:08,158
Learn that eventually.

1012
00:35:08,158 --> 00:35:08,830
I would tell myself that sort of
like maintain your curiosity and

1013
00:35:08,830 --> 00:35:10,100
your desire to learn.

1014
00:35:10,500 --> 00:35:11,783
It'll take you places and it will

1015
00:35:11,783 --> 00:35:13,732
bring you satisfaction in your
personal life and your

1016
00:35:13,732 --> 00:35:14,241
professional life.

1017
00:35:14,241 --> 00:35:16,313
I don't want to speak for wise,

1018
00:35:16,313 --> 00:35:21,424
but I know we've talked about it
as a group here at Rennie within

1019
00:35:21,424 --> 00:35:23,820
the intelligence department is
like, I think the common trait

1020
00:35:24,260 --> 00:35:26,218
that we all have is we're super
curious people.

1021
00:35:26,218 --> 00:35:27,909
And it's really fun to be curious.

1022
00:35:27,909 --> 00:35:29,436
I think it's really, really

1023
00:35:29,436 --> 00:35:30,421
healthy trait to have.

1024
00:35:30,421 --> 00:35:32,437
So I'd encourage myself to nurture

1025
00:35:32,437 --> 00:35:32,587
that.

1026
00:35:32,587 --> 00:35:33,259
Good answer.

1027
00:35:33,259 --> 00:35:37,078
I would say one thing I didn't
realize when I was sort of getting

1028
00:35:37,078 --> 00:35:40,209
into real estate is like, just
reach out to people and ask for

1029
00:35:40,209 --> 00:35:42,387
advice or ask to go to coffee.

1030
00:35:42,387 --> 00:35:44,520
I always kind of thought when I

1031
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,498
was younger that, you know, if you
just reach out to someone, they'll

1032
00:35:47,498 --> 00:35:49,083
kind of blow you off.

1033
00:35:49,083 --> 00:35:51,195
They won't have time for you.

1034
00:35:51,195 --> 00:35:54,961
But the reality is it's a pretty
small industry and people are

1035
00:35:54,861 --> 00:35:56,980
really generous with their time.

1036
00:35:56,980 --> 00:35:59,584
And I would say to any young

1037
00:35:59,684 --> 00:36:03,033
person out there who's trying to
get into the business or just out

1038
00:36:03,033 --> 00:36:08,109
of school or in school is like
reach out to people and chances

1039
00:36:08,006 --> 00:36:09,562
are they'll go for coffee with you
and they'll share their experience

1040
00:36:09,483 --> 00:36:12,336
with you yeah great answers what
is your favorite charity or how do

1041
00:36:12,336 --> 00:36:15,520
you get back so i have have a
couple that are near and dear to

1042
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,195
me the first is the greater
vancouver food bank enjoyed both

1043
00:36:18,195 --> 00:36:21,052
volunteering there and donating
i've spent some time in their

1044
00:36:21,052 --> 00:36:23,020
warehouse sorting like huge
donations from grocery stores that

1045
00:36:23,420 --> 00:36:24,681
uh it's pretty satisfying to see.

1046
00:36:24,681 --> 00:36:25,942
It can be tough out there,

1047
00:36:25,942 --> 00:36:27,642
especially nowadays, and kind of
see the impact that they have.

1048
00:36:27,642 --> 00:36:30,060
And the second one being Ronald
McDonald House of BC and Yukon.

1049
00:36:30,460 --> 00:36:31,715
So like, you know, we're a huge
province.

1050
00:36:31,715 --> 00:36:35,724
We have one children's hospital
kind of tucked away in the corner

1051
00:36:35,724 --> 00:36:37,008
of Metro Vancouver.

1052
00:36:37,008 --> 00:36:38,136
You know, illness, child illness

1053
00:36:38,136 --> 00:36:39,084
can strike anybody.

1054
00:36:39,081 --> 00:36:40,464
you some And, people know, child

1055
00:36:40,464 --> 00:36:41,560
illness can strike And, anybody.

1056
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,059
you some people are just know,

1057
00:36:43,059 --> 00:36:45,204
coming from really far And so to
go there, away.

1058
00:36:45,204 --> 00:36:49,275
taking groups there and, you know,
you cook dinner for the whole

1059
00:36:49,275 --> 00:36:52,996
house and you kind of see a whole
lot of parents kind of wearing

1060
00:36:52,996 --> 00:36:57,081
their stress on their face and to
know that you kind of take one

1061
00:36:57,081 --> 00:36:58,955
little thing off their plate is
pretty impactful.

1062
00:36:58,955 --> 00:36:59,340
Awesome.

1063
00:36:59,740 --> 00:37:00,304
I love that.

1064
00:37:00,304 --> 00:37:02,947
I For me, the big one more
recently has been the World

1065
00:37:02,946 --> 00:37:03,334
Wildlife Federation.

1066
00:37:03,334 --> 00:37:05,315
And I was standing in my driveway.

1067
00:37:05,315 --> 00:37:09,251
My daughter, who at the time was
nine years old, she was drying

1068
00:37:09,251 --> 00:37:09,251
with chalk at my feet.

1069
00:37:09,251 --> 00:37:10,777
And the stranger came down the

1070
00:37:10,777 --> 00:37:12,194
driveway and accosted me.

1071
00:37:12,194 --> 00:37:13,918
And my intention was to blow him

1072
00:37:13,918 --> 00:37:17,200
off because who is this guy?
And he starts doing this spiel

1073
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:15,672
about why it's important to
support wildlife and the

1074
00:37:15,672 --> 00:37:15,863
environment.

1075
00:37:15,863 --> 00:37:17,455
And as he's talking, I'm still

1076
00:37:17,455 --> 00:37:21,538
waiting for him to finish so I can
say, you know, I'm actually not

1077
00:37:21,538 --> 00:37:21,922
interested.

1078
00:37:21,922 --> 00:37:22,305
I'm thinking about my daughter and

1079
00:37:22,305 --> 00:37:24,990
the world that she's going to sort
of grow into.

1080
00:37:24,990 --> 00:37:29,198
And I thought, you know, this is a
really important moment for me.

1081
00:37:29,198 --> 00:37:31,366
And I've committed to donating to
them on a consistent basis.

1082
00:37:31,366 --> 00:37:34,235
And I like the right thing to do
then.

1083
00:37:34,335 --> 00:37:36,474
And I'm very happy to be doing
that.

1084
00:37:36,474 --> 00:37:39,400
I think professionally, something
I like to do is mentor.

1085
00:37:39,500 --> 00:37:42,440
So I've been involved over the
years in various mentorship

1086
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:42,680
programs.

1087
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,027
And just going back to actually

1088
00:37:45,027 --> 00:37:47,051
what Wise was talking about,
connecting sort of people earlier

1089
00:37:47,151 --> 00:37:49,413
in their careers and people who
are, you know, mid or later

1090
00:37:49,413 --> 00:37:52,111
career, I think it's really
important, those connections to

1091
00:37:52,211 --> 00:37:52,509
happen.

1092
00:37:52,409 --> 00:37:53,843
And I've really enjoyed, you know,

1093
00:37:53,843 --> 00:37:54,757
meeting new people through that.

1094
00:37:54,757 --> 00:37:55,026
Fantastic.

1095
00:37:55,026 --> 00:37:57,440
How can Taylor or I or our
audience help you?

1096
00:37:57,840 --> 00:37:59,273
Like, what can we do to support
you?

1097
00:37:59,273 --> 00:38:02,654
Yeah, I mean, if you're interested
in what we have to say or what

1098
00:38:02,654 --> 00:38:05,217
we're opining on or writing about,
there's a few ways that you can

1099
00:38:05,217 --> 00:38:06,487
sort of access our content.

1100
00:38:06,387 --> 00:38:07,836
You can go to our website at

1101
00:38:07,836 --> 00:38:08,449
renny.com slash intelligence.

1102
00:38:08,449 --> 00:38:09,630
We post all of our monthly

1103
00:38:09,627 --> 00:38:10,887
publications on the real estate
market, including Kelowna.

1104
00:38:10,887 --> 00:38:12,613
So we have reports for Kelowna,
Seattle, Vancouver, and Victoria,

1105
00:38:12,613 --> 00:38:13,666
publish those every month.

1106
00:38:13,642 --> 00:38:14,411
The Rennie Landscape, which goes

1107
00:38:14,386 --> 00:38:15,086
out every six months.

1108
00:38:15,186 --> 00:38:15,918
And other publications like the

1109
00:38:15,918 --> 00:38:18,524
Rennie Outlook, which we publish
in the beginning of the year with

1110
00:38:18,521 --> 00:38:19,607
predictions for the balance of the
year.

1111
00:38:19,607 --> 00:38:21,122
All that stuff is there, including
topical articles.

1112
00:38:21,122 --> 00:38:22,628
We publish two to three a week.

1113
00:38:22,628 --> 00:38:24,080
Rennie Intel on X. You can find us

1114
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:24,287
there.

1115
00:38:24,287 --> 00:38:25,116
And Rennie.group on TikTok.

1116
00:38:25,116 --> 00:38:26,411
we are Yes, on I TikTok.

1117
00:38:26,411 --> 00:38:28,723
don't know how we do I don't it.

1118
00:38:28,723 --> 00:38:30,109
know what we're You doing.

1119
00:38:30,109 --> 00:38:31,615
can find us And there.

1120
00:38:31,615 --> 00:38:32,037
Rennie.group on TikTok.

1121
00:38:32,037 --> 00:38:32,820
we are Yes, on TikTok.

1122
00:38:32,820 --> 00:38:33,060
And there.

1123
00:38:33,060 --> 00:38:33,720
Rennie.group on TikTok.

1124
00:38:33,720 --> 00:38:34,680
we are Yes, on TikTok.

1125
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,540
I don't know how we do it.

1126
00:38:36,540 --> 00:38:39,880
I don't know what we're doing
there, but we're there.

1127
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:40,877
Stuff goes on there.

1128
00:38:40,877 --> 00:38:42,274
I haven't looked.

1129
00:38:42,274 --> 00:38:44,592
You guys have been mastering the
dances.

1130
00:38:44,592 --> 00:38:45,002
Yeah, exactly.

1131
00:38:45,002 --> 00:38:45,275
Yeah.

1132
00:38:45,275 --> 00:38:48,412
And then both Berlin and I are on
LinkedIn as well.

1133
00:38:48,312 --> 00:38:49,739
So you can check.

1134
00:38:49,739 --> 00:38:50,946
We post a bit of stuff.

1135
00:38:50,946 --> 00:38:52,052
Not too much.

1136
00:38:52,052 --> 00:38:54,341
Yeah, no, that's where I found you

1137
00:38:54,341 --> 00:38:54,472
guys.

1138
00:38:54,472 --> 00:38:56,330
Yeah, you guys are putting out

1139
00:38:56,230 --> 00:38:56,930
some quality reports.

1140
00:38:56,930 --> 00:38:58,770
And yeah, I love it.

1141
00:38:58,770 --> 00:39:00,125
So keep up the good work.

1142
00:39:00,125 --> 00:39:00,594
Appreciate it.

1143
00:39:00,594 --> 00:39:00,959
Appreciate that.

1144
00:39:00,959 --> 00:39:01,480
Awesome.

1145
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:02,299
Nice.

1146
00:39:02,399 --> 00:39:03,870
Okay, well, thanks so much for

1147
00:39:03,870 --> 00:39:05,020
your time today, guys.

1148
00:39:04,836 --> 00:39:05,116
Hopefully Vancouver is treating

1149
00:39:04,967 --> 00:39:05,120
you guys well.

1150
00:39:05,133 --> 00:39:08,500
And we'll hope to connect with you

1151
00:39:08,317 --> 00:39:08,500
guys again soon.

1152
00:39:08,392 --> 00:39:08,442
Awesome.

1153
00:39:08,430 --> 00:39:08,500
Thanks for having us.

1154
00:39:08,472 --> 00:39:08,500
Absolutely.

1155
00:39:08,506 --> 00:39:12,120
Thanks, both.

1156
00:39:12,074 --> 00:39:12,427
Appreciate it.

1157
00:39:12,455 --> 00:39:13,042
It was a lot of fun.