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Vinay Shah | GreenAxs
November 17, 2022
Vinay Shah | GreenAxs
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On today’s show, Jordan sits down with Vinay Shah, Managing Partner at GreenAxs Capital. Vinay brings 25+ years of portfolio management, research, investment banking, strategy, and entrepreneurship to GreenAxs. Over the past few years, he has focused his expertise on the cannabis industry as an investor and advisor. He advises companies on capital raising, strategy, and marketing while also making direct investments.

GreenAxs Capital is an investor-centric private equity firm. Their team brings institutional investing discipline and world-class operating experience to enable us to uniquely identify long-term winning business models with quality management teams. They work alongside the management teams of their portfolio companies to provide strategic, financial, and operational support to help accelerate the growth of the companies and build industry-leading businesses.

Thank you to Vinay Shah of GreenAxs Capital for coming on the show.


To learn more about Vinay Shah and the GreenAxs Capital, visit:
https://greenaxs.com/

To learn more about the Panther Group, visit:
 thepanthergroup.co

Transcript

Michaela Petrone  0:05  
Welcome to joint ventures, a podcast where we delve into the cannabis investment landscape through the lens of investors and operators who helped fuel the growth of the cannabis industry. Today we're joined by Vinay Shah, co founder and portfolio manager of green axis capital, a private equity cannabis fund. Vinay brings 25 years of Wall Street institutional investment experience to green axis having analyzed and invested in hundreds of private and public technology, media, telecom and consumer companies. VNA also invested, operated and exited a company in the cannabis industry in 2020. Thanks for listening to joint ventures. And here's your host, Jordan tritt.

Jordan Tritt  0:47  
VNA, thanks for joining us really happy to have you on the show with us and looking forward to the conversation that we're gonna have now. So just to start with, if you can give me just a little bit of your background, your partner's background and what you were doing before this and how you ultimately decided to start investing in the cannabis industry.

Vinay Shah  1:06  
Yep. Thanks, Jordan. Great to be here. Appreciate you sponsoring this, just in terms of our background, you know, so my partner and I located on green axis were private equity cannabis fun prior to that we were actually operators in the cannabis space. We were part of a company called solo sciences, we were doing any counterfeiting tech for the cannabis industry. And we had some proprietary technology, we ended up selling that company to a Corona, which is a small, publicly listed company that does software compliance for cannabis. But a longer time ago, the reason we decided to start a fund is you know, we have a very heavy kind of institutional investing background, I was sort of I was ex Wall Street myself, I worked at places like Morgan Stanley Fidelity Investments, Putnam Investments did a mix of public and private, I also spent some time in the FinTech industry. So a lot of you know, institutional background. And you know, that's why our fund is very focused on sort of technology and ancillary businesses. And we're excited to be co invested with you guys, on some of those businesses location, my partner who's not here, but just briefly, you know, he also was part of a private equity fund that did emerging markets, he also ran several tech companies. So I think we both together have a lot of private equity, a lot of operational experience, as well as investing experience. And so we try to bring those disciplines together at Green access. And so I think that works out very well for us.

Jordan Tritt  2:25  
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. I think those backgrounds of having operated business and also investing, you know, would likely position you very well here, is there anything that you can think of, you know, you've been in the industry now for a few years, that, you know, when you look at your background, from the institutional side, Wall Street, and then also the operational side that you think shows well are, you know, kind of gives a good indication of why those two backgrounds are really well positioned and create additional benefit for investing in the cannabis space?

Vinay Shah  2:59  
Yeah, I think, you know, we, we had a very sort of specific strategy where, you know, like I mentioned, we invest in tech and ancillary, we don't invest in cultivation, we don't invest in retail. And I think a lot of the reason, and that's been, I think, the right decision, you know, so far, and a lot of that comes from our backgrounds. You know, so I did a lot of ecommerce investing. So I know how difficult you know, retail can be versus, you know, trying to compete on the E commerce side, on the cultivation side, you know, having followed lots of consumer companies, you know, vertical integration, you know, doesn't always bear fruit in the long run, you know, depends on the timing a bit, right. And so I think our experiences, having invested in lots of different types of businesses over time, has helped us, you know, really understand what business models to invest in, right. And that's one thing that we focus a lot on. And then the second piece is having been operators in the space, you know, we got to know and meet lots of different brands, lots of different technology partners. When we started the fund, we had kind of a head start, we sort of knew where we wanted to position investors in terms of companies and sub sectors. So I think, you know, we wouldn't been able to do that if we weren't actually operators in the cannabis space. So I think between our historical investing background and our more recent cannabis specific backgrounds, that's how we're able to sort of pick I think, the best companies, that's our strategy.

Jordan Tritt  4:18  
That's great, awesome. So it's very clear, helpful in terms of giving the listeners an idea of what you're focused on. So within that ancillary and tech space, and I know you mentioned we have co invested so I know some of your areas of interest, but maybe, you know, for people who aren't as familiar so you'll take it one level deeper, you know, within that ancillary and tech space, what are whether it's the business model, the scale, you know, what are some of the sectors that are most interesting to you that you really like put a circle on and said, This is where we want to be this is where we want to, you know, maybe have extra exposure or you know, and similarly like Did you know what has informed your decision to focus on those particular areas would be especially interesting as well?

Vinay Shah  5:08  
Yeah, no, that's a great question. So let me give you a few of the sectors and give you a few examples. So I think from a sector point of view, at a high level, you know, we love software businesses, you know, from a business model, lots of recurring revenue. So we look for, you know, that that type of business model in cannabis, we like E commerce, because it's, you know, scalable, it's usually, you know, lower capex than kind of traditional retail, there's still capex, obviously, but you know, it's lower than, you know, opening large stores and having to market aggressively that way. We like data and analytics. So we're invested in some data companies that are doing well. And we also like genetics and formulation, and that's the company we share, you know, we've co invested with you guys. And so you know, some specific I don't know, if you want to go through some specific names, but you know, abstracts on the genetics and formulation side terpene side, you know, they're doing well. And I think one theme across all of these businesses, Jordan, and this is what we learned when we were at solo is that you really want to find businesses that benefit from the unit growth in the industry. So whatever's happening to you know, pricing for flower, our companies are less price sensitive, right, or to commodity price changes, they're more sensitive to as long as the unit growth in the industry is positive and growing fast. So whether that's, you know, software, whether that's e commerce, genetics, so abstracts is one company that we've invested in together on the genetic side, terpene side trees is an investment we've made. So they're point of sale software company, so they have a SaaS business, but they also, you know, can accept payments today, as you know, in cannabis, it's mainly debit transactions, but the day that credit cards are accepted, and you know, and we think that'll come with regulations changing, they have a lot of upside, because then they will be the you know, the front end for the retailers to process those transactions. And again, so they're leveraged to the unit growth of the industry all of a sudden. So that's those are some of the sectors I was doing go to a lot more detail. But we're very happy with our portfolio companies, because they're not facing the kind of commoditization or price pressure that you're seeing in other parts of the industry. And that's, you know, the normal evolution of any industry.

Jordan Tritt  7:07  
Very interesting. All right. So we'll shift gears for a moment here and talk politics as my co founder, Panther group, Scott Berman says it's all about the politics. So we're we are recording this episode in q4 of 2022, just after the announcement that President Biden made regarding, you know, the corporations at the federal state level, as well as talking about, you know, looking at the scheduling of cannabis as a schedule one federal drug. So if you can talk about, you know, the announcement, what the take is from an active VC and what the potential implications are for the industry, maybe both short term and long term as a result of this announcement?

Vinay Shah  7:50  
Yeah, no, and I love how you dated at Jordan? Because I think that's important. No, I think it's a it's a hugely positive move, and not completely unexpected, in the sense that so when we started our fund, beginning of last year, we sort of communicated to our investors that we thought meaningful change, you know, or even federal legalization would take three to five years. And the reason we said that two years ago was because first we we saw what was happening at the state level. And actually, since we started the fund, more states legalized, and we thought we didn't know we weren't sure New York, New Jersey would legalize that fast, right. So we've seen some very positive momentum on the state level. And at the federal level, we just thought, you know, Biden, and you know, the VP Harris had said, they would make some changes, but they were, you know, their first year in office, people were worried that they hadn't done much. And we were saying, you know, they have a lot of things to worry about, you know, post COVID, etc. So the timing, you know, makes sense to us from the standpoint that, you know, we've just thought they were busy in the first two years, but it's kind of going along the timeline that we had hoped for, at least in terms of, you know, specifics. I think for people that don't know, there are sort of two or three components to this right. One is the the pardoning of people that have federal offenses. The second piece is, you know, Biden has called on the governor's to enact that at the state level. And the third piece, which is, you know, the most exciting, probably the most dramatic, would be a review of where it's scheduled today, right. And so today, it's a schedule one drug, which means it has no medical value, and is highly addictive, right, as a simple way that we've interpreted that. And so we think at a minimum, it'll get rescheduled to something, you know, lower, which would be positive, and there is a chance that it gets completely D scheduled, but I'm not a political expert. I think you and Panther group probably have a lot more connectivity in the sort of, you know, government side of the business. So we'd love to hear your thoughts to Jordan. But I think the last thing I'll say is that we're confident 99% It gets rescheduled very high probability, I would say 60 to 70%. D scheduled and I think the timeframe, this is where there's also a lot of debate again, we'll have more thoughts is minimum probably two years is my guess because the FDA and the Help them, you know, health administration, they just don't do anything very fast. We're still waiting for CBD clarifications, right? So but would love to get your take to Jordan and Panthers take?

Jordan Tritt  10:10  
Yeah, so I agree with you in terms of, you know, the significance of something happening at the federal level, I've been in the industry for seven years. And this is the first piece of factual positive forward movement from the federal level and seven years. So I put a lot of significance just around that and what that means and how we've, you'll likely turn the corner from this being something that, you know, of course, at the industry level, we say this is, uh, you know, uh, when not if, but I think now, you're seeing some at least acknowledgement and progress from the federal level is significant. The timing pieces is also, you know, I agree with you challenging to predict, I think on the federal level, we're, I believe we're still, you know, from a full federal legalization somewhere in that seven to 10, year time horizon. But as we, as we know, you know, a D scheduling would be significant that the challenges that the industry has, is, you know, access to capital, you know, challenges in banking and the reliance on cash, and, you know, lack of banking options, and, you know, to AV E, right, so those are all, you know, I think the four or five things that you know, systemically need to be resolved. And then, you know, once that happens, you know, there'll be significant, I mean, what the impact of that will be will, I think is probably, you know, much of what we're expecting and hoping, you know, the how the industry will evolve, you know, even more so then you know what federal federal legalization means I think, you know, getting rid of the banking, and the tax challenges and all that and opening up more sources of capital, there's a three or four things I think, are most critical. And I think, like you said, we'll probably start seeing some real movement in a couple years, and then you'll really be something that's changed in the next three to five years. So, you know, I guess that's also, you know, something. So given the timing of where we are, from a macroeconomic standpoint, what we just described as some of the big moves and impetus, like what what do you see, then for the next two to three years, as you know, this, let's just say the situation is pretty much status quo for the industry at large, you know, how are you viewing the next two to three years, you know, and if there's any more, like, in our timeline that you think is significant, but, you know, it sounds like for, you know, we're both agreeing two to three years before, of real, real significant impact happens for the industry.

Vinay Shah  12:40  
You know, our we've been encouraging, obviously, our investors and new investors to invest, you know, in the industry. Now, this is the right time, because we like to your point, which is a very good point is that we have some line of sight that the federal government is willing to move, you know, it's still gonna be slow. But you know, we haven't had that line of sight, you know, since I've been in the cannabis industry, and you've been in the industry longer. But I think the next two to three years, I think you'll still see, obviously, state by state legalization right, we've got another five states, I believe that there's going to be some form of cannabis legalization on the ballot in the next couple of weeks. You know, there's this other we haven't talked about it, but there's, you know, some specific pieces of legislation, right, like the safe Banking Act, which is trying to get pushed through Congress as a little bit of a, you know, Band Aid solution, maybe you call it for getting more access to banking services to your point and maybe getting some institutional capital. So if you see something like that, and if you see the state by state legalization, I think the industry, you know, is still growing, you know, it'll still the industry will still outgrow the US economy this year, even with all the challenges that we've seen. So I think you're still gonna see pretty robust, you know, double digit industry growth, if some of this legislation happens, and with new states, certain companies and sectors will do well, I mentioned, you know, like trees, if you got safe banking, and if we could do credit card processing, that would be huge for them, new states helps, you know, most of our companies, as you know, right, as long as you have exposure to those states, but yeah, other than that, it's going to be slow from a regulatory standpoint. But I'm still encouraged that they'll still be pretty robust growth, but you just have to invest in the right companies. That's sort of the trick here.

Jordan Tritt  14:13  
Exactly. So just a little bit, you know, the move from where we are now to talk about the public versus private. So, you know, right now, why should investor put money into the private companies versus public given, you know, the current pricing levels of the public stocks?

Vinay Shah  14:31  
Yeah, I think, you know, and I did a lot of public investing in my career right at Fidelity and Putnam etc. I think the biggest thing that that I think investors need to understand is that which I which I refer to is that you've got to look at the business models that you're investing in the majority of the public companies are vertically integrated, you know, MSOs, right. The largest most of the market cap is concentrated in those types of companies. And you know, those companies really does sound very basic. I mean, a lot of their businesses farming right now sort of cultivation is right. And we haven't seen if you look at Starbucks, if you look outside of cannabis, you haven't seen a lot of vertically integrated, you know, companies and Starbucks doesn't own all their coffee plantations, you know, excetera. So the problem with being vertically integrated, as you're seeing now is that when the price of flour or marijuana falls, right, you're very exposed to the price to the commodity. And, you know, not the unit economics, which we talked about, right. And so I think it's a question of, you know, it's not that the companies are, you know, they are struggling, but they're struggling, because they inherently have, you know, very difficult business models to work with. And it's not completely their fault, because the way that as you know, the structure of the industry, you have to be vertically integrated, to be able to, you know, participate in each of these states that will change meaningfully with, you know, federal regulation coming in, and allowing interstate commerce. But until that time, the your options in the public market are limited to what I'd call the MSOs, or these vertically integrated markets. In contrast, on the private side, as you know, as well, as I do, you know, we're able to see, you know, company like abstracts, right, that we're both invested in, there's no, there's no comparable in the public market today. Right, there's no genetics terpene company that trades that you can invest in, you know, trees, you know, there isn't the exact same company, you know, we're in headset, there's not a great data analytics company, that's, you know, in the public markets. So I think we can invest on the private side, and a lot better business models, right, across many more sectors. And we're still able to invest at even discounts to many of the public companies even even as bad as other companies have been, we're able to, you know, invest at multiples that are lower than many of the public companies. So I feel that's a winning formula, versus trying to invest in public companies that, you know, just don't have inherently strong business models. I mean, that's my kind of pitch, you know, to our investors. And, you know, between me and you, Jordan, one last thing is that for me, and you would imagine be easier to launch in some ways a public fund, we intentionally did not, right, because when you launch a public fund, then you can give people liquidity, and they can have redemptions if they want. But we intentionally didn't go that route, because we just didn't believe that was where the value was. And I think we've been we've been right, you know, for the last two years.

Jordan Tritt  17:07  
Great, this question about the fun progress for a minute, how many fund investments have you made now in the space, whether that's across multiple funds, or, you know, just one fun, and then anything that you're when you look across the portfolio, something that you know, when you look back now, you wish you had known anything you would have done differently, or anything that's worked out really well across the portfolio a couple years in? So just a little sneak peek into where you're at with that?

Vinay Shah  17:35  
Yeah, I think we so we've done about, we're close, we're coming up on up close to about eight or nine investments, a few things, hopefully, we'll close in the next sort of 30 days, 60 days, we're very happy with the portfolio, you know, it's still young, right? We've been, you know, we started investing, you know, kind of middle of last year. But you know, if you look as a group, all of our, you know, our portfolio as a group is growing year, over year faster than the industry, about 30% of our portfolio is already cashflow positive, including, again, I keep referring to our joint company, Jordan, and the only thing I would have done maybe differently is, you know, I probably underappreciated you know, how some of these mature markets like California, how slowly or how quickly, they could go into sort of slow growth mode, they've matured a little faster than we thought. So our companies that have exposure, California have seen some slowdown there. But fortunately, we've always invested with diversification across geography in mind, right? So majority of our companies are pretty well diversified. Because they can participate in multiple states. But I think that will be the one thing, you know, that if you if I could do differently, I would have made sure I pushed hard on the having broad exposure, you know, and making sure no one had too much exposure in California or Colorado, for example, where we are seeing some maturity,

Jordan Tritt  18:46  
right? Yeah, exactly. So that that along with that point, you know, we're seeing distress, we're seeing companies looking to do expansion and roll ups to take advantage of the distress or just to get to scale. We're seeing some on the even on the, you know, ancillary side consolidation. So over the next, let's just say, a couple of three years, what is your view on how, you know, what kind of consolidation we're gonna continue to see, will this get to the level that we think in terms of some of those mature markets and things bottoming out and, you know, companies acquiring at the low level, you know, how do you see that and, and what, if anything, will that how will that impact how you make investments? Yeah,

Vinay Shah  19:32  
going forward? Yeah, no, again, great question. So I think the will we could talk about this question for a couple hours. But so one is I think you're gonna see there, as we both know, Jordan, there are way too many brands out there, you know, in general, right. So I think you're gonna see a lot of consolidation between brands, you'll unfortunately see some brands go away. And that's, you know, I think part of the natural evolution of any kind of young industry consumer LED industry, so brands are definitely going to consolidate and many will go away on the technology To decide where we, you know, where we do a lot of work, you're gonna see some consolidation as well, you know, we're working on some deals in our portfolio. And, you know, I think we're doing it from a position of strength, you know, consolidating, you know, with some smaller players, but again, as capital has gotten scares, you know, not every company can can raise capital easily. So, you're gonna see some combinations there. The last one, again, I would love your view, because you have, you know, you have a very wide view, given a lot of things that Panther does, you know, I think on the sort of the MSO or cultivation side, I think you'll see a lot of sort of divestitures, right, people are going to sell assets, either to raise cash or two, you know, service debt. And also, I think, now you're starting to see which parts of the businesses are healthy and strong, and which parts are, can be challenged, even if there's a, you know, any kind of economic downturn. So I wouldn't be surprised if you saw people, you know, selling their cultivation, selling some of their retail, I mean, you saw canopy, which is not a US company, but canopy in Canada just sold all of their retail, right. And so I think that's a little bit of a sneak peek at what you're going to see on the kind of MSO or vertically integrated side, I think these companies are not going to stay vertically integrated for for very long.

Jordan Tritt  21:09  
Yeah, I think that's great. And that's something that we've been privy to seeing a lot of ups and downs in this industry. And that I think just makes a huge difference, and is a real key for deploying capital to know that, you know, it's very easy to get excited about particular sectors, or geographies, or, you know, or even not excited, but just like have a certain view on it. And then, you know, realize, like, in the example you're talking about with California, how quickly things can change from a pricing standpoint, from a market standpoint, you know, like, we don't know, there's a lot of impacts that that the industry will continue to absorb as it goes through this growth. And having been there and seen it, and like, you're alluding to looking, knowing that Canada is a good bellwether for us in terms of the MSO. So like that thing, you know, being on the right side of that, I think those little tweaks are the difference between, you know, being with a company that's moderately growing or doesn't make it versus, you know, across the board having a really solid portfolio. So that's, you know, I can relate to what you're saying in terms of just give being very eyes wide open about what's happening. And knowing that, you know, there's obviously from a broad perspective, the industry continues to grow. But there's, you know, within that there's a lot of, you know, ups and downs, we got to be aware of and be on the right side of it's like an active trading kind of thesis versus just, you know, putting money and in and just seeing what happens, you know, betting on the industry 20 years from now or something. So, yep. Okay, cool. We haven't talked too much. And I don't think you guys have done much globally, yet. I know, we haven't. But just curious, you know, again, kind of like a sneak peek. What do you anything that's interesting about, you know, Europe, South America, Asia, in terms of what you guys are doing? How are you viewing that? How can you kind of get an understanding of that, when you're focused on the US? So just what do you think about when you think of international opportunities?

Vinay Shah  23:15  
So yeah, to your point, Jordan, so we, our current Fund, which we just closed was a US only fund our next Fund, which probably will launch next year, you know, might be global, we're still debating that right now. But to give you just a few, you know, maybe data points or things that we're seeing, you know, one thing that is pretty interesting, exciting, is Germany, a lot of talk about Germany, legalizing, right, that would be a huge, you know, market in and of itself, you know, big domino effects in Europe. And hopefully, you know, that's giving Biden in the US a little, you know, FOMO, if, you know, Germany and Europe were to move faster than us. So that's one exciting thing, Asia, you know, obviously, I'm Indian, you know, we've, we've talked, a few companies are doing stuff on the hemp side. And so there's actually, you know, things happening in India that, you know, you wouldn't see in the headlines, but you know, there's a, an industry that's kind of budding and growing there, Latin America, there's also, you know, a bunch of legalization happening, the interesting thing from Latin America, that we have some relationships through some of our LPS down there, and actually, they're looking to invest in the US market. And so I think they're just trying to figure out timing, but we are seeing a lot of, you know, specific interest in either, you know, partnering with partnering with some of our portfolio companies, you know, direct investments and so, so I think there's, there's a lot of money sitting, of course, around the world, but there's a lot of money on the sidelines that I think wants to will want to get into the US in particular, and vice versa. If you know, Germany or Asia, you know, moves, there'll be money that flows that way too. But so I think there's a lot of exciting things happening around the world. You know, for us, we want to kind of stay focused, you know, I don't want to spread our team too thin, you know, running around the world trying to do deals, you know, only you can do the right due diligence unless you have, you know, dedicated people but but no, there's a lot of interesting things. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if you're seeing anything different or on top of that Jordan.

Jordan Tritt  25:00  
No, I think I see it the same way. One of the interesting things I think about, you know, how are the US companies going to take advantage of that I'm thinking more on the, you know, the ancillary side, or the, you know, we talked about, like the flavoring raw ingredients side. So that, to me is the most interesting thing is like, how will this evolve as a global industry will be extremely border segregated? Or will there'll be a lot of overlap between companies? I think that's one of many questions that'll be interesting to track over time in this industry. So this kind of also, you know, maybe looking again, looking back for a second, you know, anything that surprises you about the investing in the industry that, you know, it could be either positive or negative, but that you were just like, wow, I'd never would have thought that this would be the case, or like, this has been much more difficult than I ever thought, like, what is something that as someone who has been in it for a little while, that's an interesting takeaway?

Vinay Shah  26:03  
Yeah, I think I think I'm a little older than you, Jordan. But, you know, having done this a long time investing, you know, there's, there are a lot of things that we've kind of, you know, seen and gone through, you know, like the tech boom and bust, you know, financial crisis, but in cannabis, you know, I think because the nature of the industry, you know, I think it's still you know, professionalizing right, so, you know, I'm always surprised that, you know, these companies that are quite large, some of them, right, they don't have, you know, people from CPG, or, you know, from outside the industry, where, you know, some of the things they're trying to do are almost like a playbook that's been done, you know, many times before, right now, a little bit of that as a function of attracting, you know, people to this industry, right, the talent and stuff, but I'm always surprised that, you know, even companies that are 50 100 million in revenue, they're still doing things, you know, without a, you know, Chief Marketing Officer, right or something, right. And I know you guys at Panther, are helping companies, right, with marketing services and other things, which is great. But I think that that lack of professionalism is sort of one thing that's missing. And on the positive side, I've been, you know, pleasantly surprised at some of the younger companies that you know, how entrepreneurial they are. And, you know, they're thinking about not just innovating for the cannabis industry, but they're also think about how they can take those innovations outside the industry. So I've been pleasantly surprised that you know, how much innovation there actually is, whether it's on the data side or software side, and somebody has forced innovation, because, you know, because of the unique regulations in cannabis, you know, so they're doing things that you don't have to do in other industries. But But yeah, so I'd say it got it cuts both ways, right. So large companies, they need more, more talent, more help smaller companies, you know, they're pretty innovative, if you can find the right one. So

Jordan Tritt  27:44  
that's great. So in terms of other investors, you know, maybe you've seen this with some of your LPs, or, you know, just people, you know, looking to get into this space and start investing, you know, what advice would you have for them, and I'll intentionally leave this very open ended, because just curious how you want to go with it. But, you know, advice for people looking to, you know, get exposure to the cannabis space.

Vinay Shah  28:10  
Yeah, look, I'm going to stick by, you know, invest on the private side versus the public side, you know, you can you can make money on the public side, always right. But I think that's going to require more of like a trading strategy, or a long, short strategy. And one of the challenges even if you want to deploy money on the public side, as you know, there's just not a ton of liquidity on some of these names, right? So if you want to buy, you know, even $50,000 worth of some of these stocks, you're going to move the stock 5% Either way, right. And so, so I would stick to the private side, but more like, like I said, because I think you can invest in, you know, a better set of business models, right, at very, very attractive valuation. So I think that's one piece. The second piece is that, you know, and this is the reason, you know, I don't work at Morgan Stanley anymore, or you know, Goldman Sachs anymore is that, in my career, I haven't seen such an attractive investment opportunity. And you know, what I mean by that is, we know, the cannabis industry today is, you know, $30 billion, globally, roughly, right. It's growing 15 to 20%. But because it's federally illegal, you don't have capital. And so you know, the valuations are much lower than if I were when I used to invest in, you know, tech, venture capital. For the same fundamentals, I would probably invest a double or triple the price, right? So I'm getting we're getting these incredible discounts for these companies. And the only reason is because we don't have institutional capital coming in. So the day as you get more and more regulations coming in, you'll see valuations go up, and you'll also see demand go up, right, as more states legalize, if it became federally illegal, you know, demand would quadruple, you know, probably overnight, right? So it's a very unique time. So that was our pitch, obviously, to our investors. But I think that all those things still stand and with markets down and the comparables, you know, down where they are, you know, deals we're talking about, right, Jordan, we're going to do some deals together. We know we're seeing even lower valuations that we saw six months ago, three months ago, obviously, you know, versus a year ago. So I think it's a great time to invest in the industry. You know, no one wants to invest in anything when markets are bad, right. But I've been through five downturns, every downturn has been the best time to invest. Right? I mean, without fail, so I'm gonna keep beating that drum. And I think we're gonna make a lot of money. And, you know, you just have to be disciplined, and, you know, find the right companies at the right prices.

Jordan Tritt  30:23  
Absolutely. Well, that would be an amazing place to stop. But I'll push for one more, and then we'll end up here, which is, so again, we mentioned 2023, coming up pretty soon a year, what's one or two things, you know, from a prediction standpoint, that you are kind of expecting to happen or that you think would be interesting to put out there that people aren't thinking about? So just kind of give us an insight into one or two things that you think will happen that will be interesting or significant for the industry in 2023?

Vinay Shah  30:55  
Yeah, I think I mean, some some form of legislation will pass, you know, whether it's safe banking, I don't know if it'll pass this year, or sometime next year, I think you'll see some interesting states, you know, legalize, I think to your earlier point, I think next year, actually, you're gonna see more, I don't think you're gonna see a ton on the US side, I think you'll see more on the international side, right, whether it's Germany, or some of these other countries doing interesting things. So yeah, I think, you know, with New Jersey, having launched New York launching, you know, end of this year, so I don't know if this is non consensus, right. But I think 2023 is going to be as strong a growth year as 2022. And I don't think most people feel like 2022 was a good year for cannabis. But you know, globally, the cannabis industry will still grow about 15 to 20%. This year, I think it will grow at least that if not faster next year, and there's a chance that accelerates next year. So I think the last piece of all this is that I think some of these markets that are down this year, right, like California, Colorado, I think they could surprise people next year, because you know, we've had a little bit of the sort of COVID overhang, right, and now people getting back to work. I think as we normalize, I think those markets could normalize. So no, no huge things. I'm not a big prediction guy in general. But those are some things we're thinking about, at least for now. Yeah,

Jordan Tritt  32:06  
that was a great, excellent. Oh, this was really fun for me being able to Yeah, thanks, Jordan. Yeah, yeah, you too. This is a different format, which I enjoyed a lot. So thanks for forgiving a lot of your perspectives and a lot of the education that you've learned over, you know, 30 plus year career that you're now monetizing the cannabis space, which is great. So thank you for joining me.

Vinay Shah  32:30  
Yeah, thanks, Jordan.

Michaela Petrone  32:32  
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