Jessie Bates spent five seasons in Cincinnati as the Bengals starting free safety but he’s now entering season number six with a change of scenery, with the Atlanta Falcons. Bates has been one of the league's most reliable, durable, and productive safeties despite some nasty contract discussions with the Bengals’ front office. Unable to repair their relationship (contract dispute) they both decided to part ways and move on. Let’s look at what can be expected from Bates in 2023 and beyond.
Reflecting on the Past
Jessie Bates played five seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals where he was a member of the 2018 All-Rookie team and a 2nd-team All-Pro in 2020. He began his career with three consecutive 100+ tackle seasons before dropping off to 88 and 71 tackles the past two seasons. He has been as reliable as any player in the league during his five seasons, as he’s played and started 79 career games and only missed three games total. That’s impressive considering he’s played 1000+ snaps in four of his five seasons (only 953 in 2021) and played a decent role on special teams. In today’s NFL, the free safety position has become just as valuable as the strong safety spot and now we’re even seeing three-safety sets.
I mentioned above that Bates's tackle numbers had dipped a tad but that had to do with better linebacker play in front of him (Logan Wilson & Germaine Pratt). Bates has 479 career tackles (6.06 per game) and a 68.2% solo tackle rate. He is a top overall safety and PFF’s numbers support that. On 385 run defense snaps, he had a grade of 84.8 (which is his personal best) and on 615 coverage snaps his grade was 72.9. Also, remember that while Bates may have had a career-low in tackles, he set a career-high in interceptions with four. In fact, last year was the fourth time in his five years that he’s had at least three interceptions (14 for his career). Bates also allowed a career-low 51.4% completion rate this past season.
Looking Ahead to the Future
Bates makes a change of scenery as he moved 6+ hours down the I-75 corridor to his new home in Atlanta. The Falcons are in a clear rebuild and in desperate need of talent, especially on defense. Bates will slide right into the free safety spot next to strong safety Richie Grant (123 tackles) and move Jaylinn Hawkins (84 tackles) to the third safety role. Neither of them has the big play upside that Bates can provide. Bates playing with another top safety hasn’t been an issue as he’s played with Shawn Williams and Vonn Bell during his time with the Bengals and still produced top numbers. The Falcons are getting a playmaker on the back end of their secondary that is going to make a huge difference for their team.
Fantasy Outlook
Bates has been a hot topic of discussion for fantasy managers as of late and many seem to be down on him. I, however, am not one of those that are out on him. In fact, with his value dropping as it has of late, I am even more in on him because of the investment price. He’s with a new team, he’s satisfied with his contract, and can now just go play football. With his upside, age (26), and the value you can get him for, I’m all in. Listen don’t overthink this! He’s young, super talented, playing for a team that needs his production, and a proven fantasy asset that you can get for a great price. Why would you not want all the shares of him you can get?
I would almost bet that fantasy managers are so down on him (again why?) that’ll be willing to move him for cheap. This reminds me of when he was a rookie and everyone was doubting him (not me, listen to the podcasts) but he just kept producing as a tier 1 SAF each week. The opportunity to add a top-end safety to your rosters at a low investment price is exactly what fantasy managers should be looking to do at any position. When you make trade offers this off-season, see if you can get him added in for a late-round pick or as a trade balancer. Always be looking to expand and improve your IDP portfolios!
Thanks for reading my article. I am a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers of America). Follow me on Twitter at @HollywoodTitan, on Facebook on my IDPNation page, on Reddit in the fantasy football IDP sub — I’m user KingTitan1 — and tune in each week and listen to IDP Nation and Devy IDP Grind, the podcasts that I co-host, on several different platforms. Feel free to email or dm me with any questions that you have, as I’m always glad to help fellow IDPers. #IDPNation #IDP #IDPDevy.
