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Calaruga, Shark Media, November twelfth, twenty nineteen. Bob Eiger stands
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before Wall Street analysts in Burbank, California, his silver hair
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perfectly quaffed, his demeanor calm but triumphant. Disney Plus has
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just launched with ten million subscribers on day one, crashing
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servers and exceeding every projection. Behind him, a screen shows
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the iconic Disney Castle logo. In front of him. The
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future of entertainment hangs in the balance. Three thousand miles
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away in Los Gatos, California, Reed Hastings watches his Netflix
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stock drop five percent in after hours trading. The man
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who once tried to sell Netflix to Blockbuster for fifty
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million dollars and was laughed out of the room is
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now worth billions. But seeing his streaming monopoly shatter in
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real time, We've been preparing for this moment, Eiger declares
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to the analysts. Disney's content is unmatched, our brands are beloved,
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and now we're going direct to consumer. What he doesn't say,
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what none of them will admit for years, is that
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this war will destroy Hollywood's entire ecosystem. That in trying
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to beat Netflix, they'll burn down the very industry they're
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trying to save. That mutually assured destruction isn't just a
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Cold war concept, It's a business strategy. Welcome back to feuds, power, pride,
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and payback. I'm Marcus Reid. Some feuds are about market share,
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others are about creative vision. But the streaming wars were
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about something more fundamental, survival. This is the story of
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how Hollywood's most powerful companies decided they'd rather die together
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than let Netflix live alone. It's a tale of disruption
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and desperation, of billions burned and empires broken, of executives
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who hated each other so much they forgot they needed
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each other. It's about how the House of Mouse went
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to war with the company that killed Blockbuster, and how everyone, studios,
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creators and consumers ended up losing. This is episode twenty seven,
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The Kingdom Strikes Back, How Mickey Mouse went to war
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with Netflix, Act one, The Disruptor two thousand and seven
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to twenty fifteen. To understand how Mickey Mouse ended up
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in a death match with a company that used to
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mail DVDs, you need to understand Reed Hastings's original sin.
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He was right about everything, and he made sure everyone
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knew it. The legend goes that Hastings founded Netflix after
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Blockbuster charged him a forty dollars late fee for Apollo thirteen.
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Whether that's true or just Silicon Valley mythology, what's certain
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is that by two thousand seven, his DVD by mail
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service was hemorrhaging money on a wild bet that some
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day everyone would stream movies over the internet. The goal
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is to become HBO faster than HBO can become us,
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Hastings told his team in twentsand eleven. It was an
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audacious statement from a company that Hollywood still saw as
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a glorified video store, but Hastings understood something the studios didn't.
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Content was becoming commoditized, but convenience was priceless. The early
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streaming years were a gold rush for everyone. Studios saw
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Netflix's free money a new revenue stream for old content
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gathering dust and vaults. They licensed everything Disney Classics, Warner Brothers, Blockbusters,
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Universal comedies. The prices were laughably low because executives thought
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streaming was supplemental income, not the future. Bob Eiger, Disney's
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CEO since two thousand and five, was actually one of
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the few who saw the thread. Early in two thousand
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and six, he'd shocked Hollywood by putting ABC shows on iTunes,
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understanding that distribution models were changing, but even he didn't
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initially grasp Netflix's ultimate ambition. In his mind, Netflix was
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a partner, not a competitor. Disney was happy to take
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Netflix's licensing checks, which by twenty twelve reached three hundred
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million dollars annually. The relationship was so cozy that in
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twenty twelve, Disney signed an exclusive deal giving Netflix first
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run rights to all Disney movies starting in twenty sixteen.
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It was hailed as groundbreaking. Eiger and Hastings smiled for photos,
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two visionaries reshaping entertainment together, But behind the scenes, data
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was telling a different story. Netflix wasn't just distributing content,
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they were learning from it. Every view, every pause, every
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rewatch taught their algorithms what people wanted, and in twenty thirteen,
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they used that data to create House of Cards, their
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first original series, poaching David Fincher and Kevin Spacey with
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promises of creative freedom and upfront guarantees. Hollywood laughed, a
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tech company making prestige television, please, But House of Cards
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earned nine Emmy nominations, and suddenly Netflix wasn't just a pipeline.
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They were a studio. Orange Is the New Black, followed
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then Stranger Things. Each success brought more subscribers, more data,
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more power. The studios were like the proverbial frog in
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slowly boiling water. By the time they realized Netflix was
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cooking them alive, it was almost too late. Netflix had
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grown from twenty million subscribers in twenty ten to seventy
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five million by twenty fifteen. Their market cap exceeded CBS, Viacom,
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and Discovery combined. They were spending billions on content, poaching
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showrunners and stars with deals traditional studios couldn't match. At
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a twenty fifteen investor conference, Time Warner CEO Jeff Bukes
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dismissed Netflix as the Albanian Army compared to HBO's premium content.
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The quote would age like milk in the Sahara. That
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same year, Netflix surpassed HBO in subscribers. The Albanian Army
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was at the gates and the kingdom was starting to panic.
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Act two, The Empire strikes back. The moment Bob Eiger
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decided to go to war with Netflix can be traced
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to a single meeting in early twenty sixteen, Disney's strategic
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planning team presented slide showing that kids were watching more
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content on Netflix than on Disney Channel. The room went silent.
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Mickey Mouse was losing to an algorithm, but the real
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shock came when they analyzed the data further. Disney content
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on Netflix was incredibly popular, so popular it was helping
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Netflix beat Disney's own platforms. They were essentially funding their
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own execution. We're selling nuclear weapons to our enemy, one
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executive reportedly said. Eiger, usually calm and measured, was furious
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not at Netflix. Reed Hastings was just doing business. He
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was fury set himself for not seeing it sooner. The
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decision to pull all Disney content from Netflix was made
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that day, though it wouldn't be announced for over a year.
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Eiger needed time to prepare for war, and wars require weapons.
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Disney's arsenal was impressive, but scattered Pixar, Marvel Star Wars
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decades of classic animation, but they needed more, much more.
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In December twenty seventeen, Eiger shocked Hollywood with a fifty
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two point four billion dollar bid for most of twenty
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first century Fox. When comcasts tried to interfere with a
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higher offer, Eiger went nuclear seventy one point three billion dollars,
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one of the largest media acquisitions in history. He wasn't
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just buying X Men and Avatar, he was buying ammunition
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for the streaming war. The Fox acquisition was deeply personal
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for Eiger. Rupert Murdoch had built Fox into a power house,
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but even he saw the writing on the wall. In
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private conversations, Murdoch Toldeiger that competing with tech companies was
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becoming impossible. Better to cash out and let Disney fight
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the war. It was like Churchill handing Roosevelt the keys
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to the British Empire, a recognition that the old world
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was dying. Netflix watched these moves with a mixture of
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respect and amusement. Ted Sarandos, Netflix's content chief and Hastings's
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eventual co CEO, later admitted they knew Disney would be
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their most formidable competitor, but they also knew Disney was
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playing catch up. While Disney was spending seventy one billion
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dollars on Fox, Netflix was spending eight billion dollars a
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year on original content, building a library from scratch. The
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talent wars began in earnest. Netflix signed Ryan Murphy to
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a three hundred million dollar deal, stealing him from Fox
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just as Disney was acquiring it. They gave Shonda Rhimes
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one hundred fifty million dollars, luring her from ABC, Disney's
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own network. The Obama's got a production deal. David Benioff
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and d B. Weiss, fresh off Game of Thrones, got
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two hundred million dollars. These weren't just signings, they were
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declarations of war. Each deal was strategically leaked, the numbers
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inflated in the press to maximum psychological effect. The message
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was clear. Netflix had Silicon Valley money, and they weren't
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afraid to use it. Traditional Hollywood was in chaos. Agents
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realized they could pit Netflix against studios for astronomical deals.
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Writers and producers who'd spent careers begging for pilot pickups
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were getting straight to series orders with full creative control.
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The entire economics of Hollywood was being rewritten in real time. Meanwhile,
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while every traditional media company scrambled to launch their own
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streaming service, NBC Universal announced Peacock, Warner Media prepared HBO
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Max Paramount resurrected CBS All Access as Paramount Plus. Each
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announcement was accompanied by bold projections and promises of exclusive content.
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But there was a fundamental problem with this strategy that
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no one wanted to acknowledge. There wasn't room for everyone.
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Consumers might pay for two or three streaming services, maybe four,
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but seven eight. The math didn't work, but the alternative,
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letting Netflix win was unthinkable. As November twelfth, twenty nineteen, approached,
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Bob Eiger prepared for Disney Plus's launch like a general
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preparing for D Day. Every piece of Disney content was
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pulled from Netflix, classic movies, Marvel series, Star Wars spinoffs,
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all hoarded for the coming battle. The marketing budget alone
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exceeded one hundred million dollars. This wasn't just a product launch.
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It was Disney's last stand Act three mutually assured destruction
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twenty twenty to twenty twenty three. Disney Plus launched with
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the force of a cultural earthquake, ten million subscribers on
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day one, twenty eight million by February. When COVID nineteen
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hit in March twenty twenty, turning the entire world into
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a captive streaming audience, Disney Plus exploded past fifty million subscribers.
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Bob Eiger, who had planned to retire, stayed on to
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navigate the pandemic. In earnings calls, he painted a rosy picture.
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Disney Plus was ahead of all projecttions. The future was streaming.
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The company was transforming itself for a new era. Wall
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Street loved it. Disney Stock hit all time highs, but internally,
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the numbers told a different story. Disney Plus was losing
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money at a staggering rate, over four billion dollars annually.
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Every subscriber cost more to acquire and maintain than they
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brought in revenue. The economics that had sustained Hollywood for decades,
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theatrical releases, cable bundles, syndication, were being sacrificed for streaming growth.
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Netflix faced its own reckoning. For the first time, they
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had real competition. Apple TV Plus launched with unlimited resources.
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Amazon Prime Video started spending seriously on content. HBO Max
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had Warner's entire library, Peacock had NBCs, Paramount Plus had
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well start te treck The streaming buffet was open and
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consumers were overwhelmed. The pandemic accelerated every trend. Theatrical releases collapsed.
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Disney sent Moulan straight to Disney Plus for a premium fee,
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then Black Widow, leading to a lawsuit from Scarlett Johansson
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that exposed the ugly economics of streaming. Warner Brothers went further,
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putting their entire twoenty twenty one slate on HBO Max
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simultaneously with theaters. Christopher Nolan, their most loyal filmmaker, called
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it the worst streaming service and jumped to Universal in protest.
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The talent wars reached absurd heights. Netflix paid four hundred
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fifty million dollars for two Knives Out sequels. Amazon spent
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two hundred fifty million dollars just for the rights to
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make a Lord of the Rings TV series, then another
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seven hundred million dollars producing it. Apple paid two hundred
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million dollars for a Martin Scorsese film that only old
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people watched. The spending was so insane that even agents
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who benefited from the bidding wars privately worried it was unsustainable.
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By early twenty twenty two, cracks were showing everywhere. Netflix
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reported its first subscriber loss in a decade. The stock
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cratered thirty five percent in one day, erasing fifty billion
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dollars in market value. Suddenly Wall Street remembered that businesses
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need to make money, not just grow subscribers. The entire
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streaming sector crashed. Disney lost half its value, Warner Brothers Discovery,
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the unholy merger of WarnerMedia and Discovery, became a penny
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stock reed Hastings, who had always played the long game,
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implemented the unthinkable password sharing crackdowns and an ad supported tier.
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The company that disrupted television with convenience and simplicity was
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now adding friction and commercials. It worked. Subscriber growth returned,
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but at the cost of everything Netflix had claimed to represent.
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Bob Chappek, who had replaced Eiger as Disney CEO, was
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fighting fires everywhere. Park's revenue, which had subsidized streaming losses,
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was still recovering from COVID. The company's woke politics were
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alienating conservative consumers. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was stripping Disney
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of special tax privileges, and Disney Plus was still bleeding billions.
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In a shocking move, Disney's board fired Chapek and brought
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Eiger back in November twenty twenty two. His first earnings
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call was brutal honesty. Streaming would focus on profitability, not growth.
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Price hikes were coming, content spending would be cut. The
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streaming dream was becoming a spreadsheet reality. Act four, The
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Streaming Apocalypse twenty twenty three to present. The Writer's strike
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began on May second, twenty twenty three, followed by the
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actors on July fourteenth. For the first time since nineteen sixty,
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both unions struck simultaneously, bringing Hollywood to a complete halt.
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The issues were complex, but at the core was streaming.
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Residuals had evaporated, AI threatened jobs, and the economics that
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had sustained middle class entertainment careers were gone. The strikes
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revealed streaming's dirty secret. Nobody was making money. Netflix was
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barely profitable despite two hundred thirty million subscribers. Disney Plus
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was still losing billions. HBO Max had been renamed Just
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Max in a re brand so disastrous it became a
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business school case study. Paramount Plus and Peacock were hemorrhaging
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cash with no path to profitability. David Zaslav, CEO of
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Warner Brothers Discovery, became the face of the apocalypse. He
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canceled finished movies for tax write offs, removed content from
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Max to avoid residual payments and openly admitted that streaming
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doesn't work as a business model. His scorched earth approach
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horrified creatives but thrilled Wall Street. Someone was finally admitting
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the emperor had no clothes. The strikes ended with writers
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and actors getting some wins, but the real victor was reality.
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The streaming gold rush was over. Studios started licensing content
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to each other again, essentially admitting defeat. The great rebundling began,
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with services offering packages that looked suspiciously like cable. Everything
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old was new again, just more expensive and complicated. By
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twenty twenty four, the landscape was unrecognizable. Paramount was for sale,
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with everyone from Sony to sky Dance circling Warner Brothers.
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Discovery was essentially a distressed asset. Disney had survived, but
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a tremendous cost. Eiger extended his retirement again because no
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one wanted the job, even Netflix. The victor was struggling
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with growth, resorting to live sports and gaming to juice
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subscriber numbers. The personal toll was immense. Careers built over
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decades were destroyed in months. Show Runners who'd gotten three