CD186: JOHN ARNOLD - TEN31 MARKET UPDATE

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Created: 12/12/2025 8:34:57 PM
Duration: 6374.818
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Happy Bitcoin Friday, freaks.

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It's your host, Odell, here for Citadel Dispatch.

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The show focused on actual Bitcoin

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and Freedom Tech discussion.

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The current time is it is December 12

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at eighteen hundred UTC.

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The current block height is nine two seven six zero six,

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and sats per dollar is 1,108.

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As always, huge shout out to the freaks who support the show.

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Dispatch is purely audience funded by Bitcoin donations. We do not have ads or sponsors,

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The top zaps

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for last week's show was Andy. He said, thank you for the return of the intro music,

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Anyway, Freaks, thank you again.

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I have a great show lined up. Return guest,

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one of my partners over at 10:31.

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We have John Arnold here. How's it going, John?

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Great to be here as always

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for your one, your one suit rip per quarter.

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The ten thirty one market update. That's what I'm gonna call it. How does that sound? That's great. That's exactly what the people who

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signed up for actionable

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Freedom Tech information wanna hear from

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from this feed.

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Look. Look. We're we're in it for the tech, but I would like if my tech maintained its purchasing power, considering my family's entire,

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life savings is is in this protocol. So I think it is it is actually relevant.

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It is it is a monetary protocol at the end of the day.

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But I feel like we've got some reasonably good

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tech oriented topics that we'll that we'll have today.

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John is, John was upset to find out that this was an audio only rep,

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because he is wearing his, Patagonia vest right now.

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Specifically

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curated my outfit,

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in the hopes of trolling our host,

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with the, the finance bro wear. It's my only Patagonia,

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jacket actually, so I I really don't, I don't really qualify for the club. But,

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unfortunately, no one will get to see,

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the, the fit today.

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Well, they can imagine it. They can imagine it. Just think,

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John, last I think last, time you came on, one of the freaks

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called you

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our quant at 10:31.

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Do you think that's a relevant title?

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I mean, I think if I'm the quant, then we're in, like, a lot of trouble.

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Like, we have the good fortune to not really need a a quant.

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But I probably am the closest thing we have

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insofar as I'm

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probably the only one on the team who has opened Excel in the last three months.

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So I open it when you send me an Excel doc. Oh, yeah. Okay. That's fair.

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Yeah. What it I guess, quants are, like, more, like, hedge fund style. Right? Like, active trading strategies, stuff like that? Yeah. You don't see a lot of, like, quants at, like,

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private,

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private funds, like, longer dated, less liquid funds. Quants are usually reserved for,

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high frequency trading strategies or, like, market neutral pod pod shop strategies.

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So probably probably not a totally appropriate title, but

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the meme, this is my quant, is funniest when it's used for someone who said who's saying abjectly,

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stupid

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things that are,

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highly falsifiable.

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So we'll go with that because I I say stuff like that a lot.

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Love it. I mean, on the topic of quants,

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there's been a lot of talk lately about

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the Jane Streets of the world and the citadels and stuff,

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playing around with Bitcoin,

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moving the market around. How how much credence do you give to I mean, presumably, they have a bunch of quants on payroll. Right? Like, that's their thing. How much credence do you give to that theory?

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Yeah. I mean,

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look. Like,

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the if you follow,

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like, you know, the zero hedge account, for example,

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they very clearly have very large Bitcoin and ETH bags, whoever runs that account, because they're constantly,

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like, every single day, like clockwork at 10AM, they complain about the Jane Street slam, the 10AM slam, where if you look back,

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over the price chart over

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number of months,

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certainly since the ETFs started, you see, what appears to be a a pretty

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tough and maybe even manipulated sell off with Bitcoin right around that time.

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I mean,

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look, I I think there's definitely we we would be very naive to think that the market dynamics

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day to day, week to week haven't changed meaningfully.

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And then you've got you've absolutely got shops out there

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playing all sorts of games,

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running all sorts of strategies to,

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harvest volatility,

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with with Bitcoin. And they're using IBOT options in a lot of cases to to do that.

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I'm not in the weeds enough on the,

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nuts and bolts of any of those strategies to say to, like, look at the price chart and do the Leonardo DiCaprio meme and and point out something and say, you know, there it is. That's that's what's happening. But,

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yeah. I think we should definitely expect, like there are big players with huge

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bags,

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in the market right now who

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don't really care about

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some of them probably have a Bitcoin thesis. There are probably a lot of Bitcoin owners at BlackRock, at Citadel, at Jane Street.

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But as institutions,

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they don't really care about where it's going long term. That it, you know, it's generally like a another volatile and highly liquid instrument to trade,

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and that's gonna affect,

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and I have an option to help with that. And so it's gonna affect just day to day price action.

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The flip side is, like,

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I I think that conversation is just an outgrowth of the reality that we also need to get used to,

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the I think as everyone has seen over the last, like, two years,

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four year cycles, I I think we can safely say, are

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essentially fake. I think they are r RAs probably fake, but certainly now, like,

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the having is way less relevant.

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You know, the the date on the calendar is is way less relevant. And I think my point is, like, Jane Street, Sodal, BlackRock, etcetera, are all of a piece with one of the reasons that, like, our traditional cycle dynamics, which are based on all of three data points historically,

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are getting less and less relevant. The just because the composition of the market is is changing so much.

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Wait. Let's just, I didn't have this on the list, but let's just go back a second. You think the last, you think four year cycles

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historically have been fake? I mean, they've existed. They've I think four year cycles are a sigh up. Because

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I think the

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the initial, like, 2012, 2013,

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pump was I think that was what people, like, mean when they talk about, like, a crypto native cycle,

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post first having.

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Because the having at that point was so meaningful to,

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overall supply,

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significant,

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downshift in newly issued Bitcoin the pace of newly issued Bitcoin relative to existing supply.

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And I think and also just, like, that was the first time for most people that anyone, like,

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a, that we saw that the having, like, worked as intended and the network continue to do what it was going to do and it actually was, like, reinforcing its monetary policy. Like, okay, that's the first data point, helps to draw people in.

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And I think that that created, like, a a pump absolutely. Like, that was related to the having.

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And I think you could definitely argue that, 1617,

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was as well because having was still pretty meaningful.

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There, I even think I even think there it starts to get murkier because you start to see, like if you look back historically, the clearer

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correlation seem to be, like, combination of, like, liquidity cycle and what, like, ISM PMIs are doing. So basically, like, what what was, like, the broader economy doing? Like, was credit, like, more or less available?

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Was it kind of on the upswing, on the downswing?

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What, was economic activity in, like, The US and major markets? Was that on the, you know, upswing and downswing? You know, like, or even just, like, worldwide, China as well, similar thing. Like, if you look back at those data points,

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those seem to have a lot,

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those map very cleanly as well to Bitcoin pumps. And I think

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first cycle, you could say that was all, like, crypto native, Bitcoin native, totally endogenous and idiosyncratic.

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Second cycle, like, definitely some of that, but I think you're you were starting to see it was getting big enough and distributed enough that it was actually being affected by a liquidity cycle. And I think 2020

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is, like, the fakest of all

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because

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2020 and '21

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I mean, obviously, not to tell anybody. We all remember what was happening then,

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but it it's very convenient that right around the having, we got, you know, the

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most,

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significant massive

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pump of new liquidity into the market and expansion of the Do you think they plan that?

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Maybe.

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I mean, I I'm not look. You know,

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I'm not gonna say one way or the other whether the timing was suspicious. I'm not gonna say one way or the other

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Whether, the events of 2020 are related to the events of late twenty nineteen with the spasm in the repo market and,

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tightness in in reserves,

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that you saw at the end of that year. But in any case, Bitcoin's price action

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that year is so swamped or, you know, over those two years is so swamped by what was happening with monetary and fiscal. And it's, like, really hard for me to say, well, the calendar shifted,

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to the year when Bitcoin is supposed to pump, and so it pumped. And so, ergo,

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you know, the correlation is there,

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post hoc AeropropterHawk,

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and that was what that was what caused it. Like, I think you've seen diminishing relevance of cycle dynamics each time. And this past

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these past two years, like,

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bear that out even even more. Yeah. I agree with go ahead. I agree with I agree with the phrase we've seen,

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decreased

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significance of cycle dynamics as time has gone on is a very different claim than Yeah. I mean Yes. All the past cycles have been fake.

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I think fake in the sense of it's fake to say that because the calendar is a certain way, Bitcoin has to do a certain thing. Like, that's never been true, except Right. Like yeah. I I'll I'll happily say that's never been true. But, like, cycles like, economic cycles exist, liquidity cycles exist, financial cycles exist, and, like, all of those things

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play into Bitcoin with

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increasing relevance at, you know, the bigger and bigger it it gets.

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Okay. I'm going to I've there was two comments I wanted to bring up, and that was the first one from your first comment. The second one is you said,

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manipulation,

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by, you know, Jane Street

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and other other funds that are maybe

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buying at night and then trying to dump when

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The US market's open.

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Just,

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philosophically, since this is such a philosophical podcast,

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is does market manipulation exist in a free market?

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Well, I mean, I if I said manipulation, that's not really what I meant. Less like, not that it's manipulative,

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but that, like, the,

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biggest

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players in the biggest capital market in the world,

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choosing to harvest volatility and run option strategies,

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on top of this asset, like, yeah, that has impact. Like, I think

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it's I don't know why you you don't have to have believe any particular conspiracy,

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to think that that's the case. No. That's definitely happening. Yeah.

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Why wouldn't they? Yeah. Whether that constitutes, like, manipulation. I mean, like, it probably depends on your definition. That's not what I would call it. It does feel like we dump on market open often.

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Yeah. We do. It but we have recently, for sure. And there was,

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there was a stat that I saw this morning about and I can't source it, so everyone's just gonna have to trust me, bro. But, on some reasonable time frame,

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if you had owned Bitcoin exclusively

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in outside US market hours since, like I think it's since the launch of iBit, you would be up, like,

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you know, 400%

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or something,

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400 something percent. And if you had owned it exclusively during market hours, I think you would be down 40%.

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Did you see they're coming out with an ETF that only holds

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it

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Yeah. During off hours. Is that a Bitwise product?

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I, I don't remember, but I I did I did see that. But They announced it they announced it this week. It's a comp it's a company I haven't heard of before. Let me see. It's called Bitcoin After Dark.

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I don't who's running it.

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Yeah. I'm I'm sure it's, how Presumably, if it was Bitwise Yeah. They would have said it was Bitwise.

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Yeah.

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I mean, the problem with anything like that is to even to the extent that there is some signal there, like, that's also gonna quickly get, like, arbed away.

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So I don't know that that's, like, oh, if you just

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own Bitcoin through vehicles that only have exposure to it outside of US hours. I don't know. That's a durable strategy to outperform. But The better argument is not I mean, I I will never

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advocate for the average person to actively trade Bitcoin. I think they're better off just staying humble, stacking sides. I think there's a better argument for,

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why holding self custody Bitcoin

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and holding, like, real Bitcoin is is has

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many different values,

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many different benefits, including this

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overall holding something that is,

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you know, only traded during eight hours,

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a day, which is kinda crazy.

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Yeah. I mean, it's a tie market hours are a tiny amount of the total,

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available hours in a year. And It's not even eight hours a day. Right? What is it open? It's 09:30 to four. 09:30 to to four. Yeah. Oh, it's six and a half hours.

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That's that's insane. Yeah.

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So yeah. So there's there's seventeen and a half hours. Great math. Seventeen and a half hour. Maybe I'm the quant. You're the quant. Seventeen and a half hours of the day that IBOT isn't being traded. I guess there's, like,

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you can trade some I mean, they made it get easier to trade

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after after close nowadays. Right? There's, like, a window, but the volume is less. Yeah. I mean, there's always been,

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and I don't know what retail's, like, level of access to it, like, actually is. There's always been there's there's premarket trading and and postmarket trading. I mean, my in my last seat when I worked on, like, the hedge fund side, like, basically, the

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axiom

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that I lived by and that I was taught is, like, all of that stuff is fake. Like, it's I mean, there's the volume is so thin pre market and post market. Liquidity just, like, dies. Yeah. It just it doesn't really mean it it can probably tell you directionality.

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You know, if a company has a great or a terrible earnings print after the close or something and it's, like, up 20% or down 20% after hours, like, yeah, that's probably telling you it's gonna be up or down a lot in the morning, but, you quickly see,

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around 10AM, actually,

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on on most days like that. You you quickly see that those those big moves from overnight kinda reverse. So,

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yeah. Generally, that's another that's another good piece of advice for people is stay home on StackSats. And if you're gonna trade,

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don't don't trade around, pre and and post market of traditional fiat securities.

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Yeah. I mean, just don't trade. Just don't trade. To the quant.

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Okay.

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I don't know what's next on the, next on the docket. I mean, Quant. We were talking about Quant. Do you wanna

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do you have Quantum on this list? Do you wanna

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update the freaks on Quantum? Yeah. I mean,

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I,

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if you've been on

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Bitcoin, Twitter it's actually it's funny. It's less on Nostr. And I think that there's signal there because I think people on Nostr generally have,

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a much sober

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a much more sober kind of view of the world and are generally less,

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click baity and rage baity,

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and also are more informed on Bitcoin. But at least on Bitcoin Twitter and on some on the podcast circuit too, like, I I've definitely

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heard

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a lot of people whom I respect.

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And Yeah. Preston specifically had

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a specific episode where I had a bunch of ten thirty one LPs reach out to me afterwards.

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It's interesting.

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Yeah. So, you know, I'm I'm not throwing shade to Preston specifically because I've I've heard it from I mean, like, Luke Groman was on Jack Farley's podcast,

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this week. I don't think Luke owns any Bitcoin anymore.

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I I can't tell if he if he fully blew out of his position or if he just size it down a lot. But in any case, he mentioned, you know, quantum as a a growing concern of his. I think that's his trade was much more on, like, the the macro the near term macro concerns. But,

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if and then if you listen to the Forward Guidance podcast, which is a very, like, you know, directionally fiat and there's some crypto shills in there that you'll have to swallow. But,

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for, like, general macro commentary, it's an interesting one. But on on all three of these, right, like, these are pretty prominent

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guests and voices across,

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you know, general macro and then within Bitcoin as well.

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There's been this growing kind of,

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worry about quantum,

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and, you know, its its potential to compromise Bitcoin keys.

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And in general, like,

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I think,

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there's

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this is one of those things that's, like, there is a lot to say about it, but

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it's the one, like, piece of Bitcoin FUD that

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doesn't really have, like, a definitive slam dunk debunking answer right now.

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You know, energy usage, what if the government bans it, what what if they copy Bitcoin, can't they just make another Bitcoin, like, all the things you kinda hear in in Bitcoin one zero one conversations. Like, those have been, like, very well addressed for many, many years. There are books written on, like, each one of those topics and articles everywhere, podcasts. Like, if and anyone who's actually curious and interested will quickly get hit in the face with a bunch of material on, like, any of those topics.

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The quantum issue is, like, an interesting one because,

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it's

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theoretically, like, a real concern, and it doesn't have a perfect solution you can point to yet.

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But I think I'm seeing a lot of, like, the conversation

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right now,

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is

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coming often from people who

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don't

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who haven't deeply dug into

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the nature of,

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quantum computers. And I'm not positing here that I am, some QC gigabrain by by any means.

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Spent a lot of time looking at it, wrote a piece that you can find on 10:31 early this year about it. Yeah. I'll link to it in the show notes. We actually

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we we released it in January. It was ahead of,

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like, public concern around it, I think. Yeah. It was after the the Google,

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paper and the Google update about kind of their strides and error correction came out, like, in December. We put that paper out, and it seemed like there was, like, a wave of discussion then, and then it kinda died down. And then, like, I think partially also because of, like, quantum stocks have just been, like, the meme stocks of this year. If you look at, like, tickers like IonQ or, like, I think it's RGTI, Rigetti Computing, like, D Wave computing. Like, if you look at any of those charts, I mean, they look like shitcoin charts.

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Are they down yet, or are they still up?

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No. I think they've gotten kinda rents in the last because I don't even if you,

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like, even if you believe quantum computing isn't reached, like, I don't understand how you monetize it. It's, like, nonmonetizable.

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That that's a whole that's a whole other thing. But with meme stocks, it doesn't really matter. Right? Like, the military can monetize the military could, like, use it once. Yeah.

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Yeah. Exactly.

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But it's like I mean, and Quantum is also, like, famous for

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so you've had, you know, these these stocks have gotten a lot of, a lot of momentum, and there have been, you know, press releases,

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left and right about different things that strides that they've made, and it's all usually, like,

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so,

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like, opaque that any random person is not probably gonna be able to decipher whether they have, like, needs anything or not. Yeah. Lots of hype. Quantum is very famous as a space for,

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announcing a lot of announcements or, you know, being two years away from being two years away,

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from, you know, making some great,

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some great strides or something. But so anyway, all all that momentum and and noise is kind of,

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taking the air out of the room a little bit in the last few months.

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And,

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you know, we can

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talk about a bunch of different elements with it, but I think the thing that no one seems to

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none of these,

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like, voices that I'm mentioning seem to have fully grokked, and I don't wanna speak for every single person who's had, like, a a quantum opinion.

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Nick Carter, for example, had a paper out, like, this week or a multi part paper on quantum and, like, at the very least, like, you know, that was fairly, like, nuanced and well considered. But in general,

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this as, like, a FUD category,

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partially comes from, like, people not even understanding, like, what the threat is or how it would manifest or, like, who would be compromised potentially.

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And I think it's, like,

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important for people to understand.

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First of all, there's a very limited set of I won't say very limited, but a definitively limited set of UTXOs on Bitcoin's blockchain that

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could be,

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could be affected by this. Also, we don't care about mining. Like, it's not a SHA-two 56

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thing. Quantum computers are nowhere close to,

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being able to crack,

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SHA-two 56,

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via Grover's algorithm. That's, like, a much, much harder challenge. What we care about is,

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the something called Shor's algorithm

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could theoretically

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has been shown to theoretically be able to, with a sufficiently powerful quantum computer,

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crack,

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an ECDSA

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based key, which is the, the curve that Bitcoin uses to, generate private public key pairs.

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It could potentially

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be used to a quantum computer, sufficiently powerful, could be used to crack one of those.

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The only real risk categories though are,

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the initial

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category of,

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address types that,

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Satoshi uses originally,

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which are paid a public key,

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which is to say, like, the the public key that which is the the input that the quantum computer would need to reverse engineer the private key to spend the Bitcoin in that address. The and with those address types, which haven't been used in ten plus years, no wallet you buy uses them or, like, we'll make them for you.

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Very, very old legacy address type.

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Those have the public key exposed. So

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Satoshi's coins or coins of that era, like, very, very early stage, those could be moved. And those will probably be could

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Yeah. Go ahead.

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Yeah. Then we had the then we had segued addresses. Oh, then we had paid a public key hash addresses. Right. Yep.

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And,

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those are hashed.

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So the public key isn't shown,

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but there is there is a concern that

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at the the when you spend from it Yep. It's shown. Yep. So there there could be a race condition if fees are high. There could be a race condition where you broadcast to the miners, then the miners

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or anyone who's listening to the network, right, because it's a public broadcast relay, then on demand to try and break reverse engineer the public key to the private key. And then last but not least,

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Taproot isn't

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that's those are bare public keys too. So, like, the Bitcoin wizards that came up with Taproot didn't think quantum was a real concern.

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Because we just got Taproot. Well, the the the good the good thing is that those,

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is that basically nobody uses Taproot still. So there aren't that many,

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Bitcoins secured by Taproot addresses. But but, yeah, that's where I was gonna go next is, like, the other big, like, tab where you portfolio company, AnchorWatch uses,

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Taproot addresses. Yeah. No. But they're they're they're leading edge. You know, Rob Hamilton's, one of the smartest people in Bitcoin. So they're But they served Quantum with Lloyd's of London insurance. Exactly.

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But, yeah, like, the other the the real category that anyone should be worried about is,

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addresses that have already been spent from, which is why

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in addition to privacy privacy,

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there is a security best practice of not reusing addresses that are where you already spent from. So just like one easy best practice to mitigate,

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near term or a couple of best practices to mitigating near term concern you might have about your Bitcoin would be

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maybe take it easy on Taproot for now, and then only,

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only spend from,

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or fully fully sweep addresses that you spend from. So don't don't spend, like, part of, you know, some Bitcoin out of,

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out of an address and leave legacy, you know, UTXOs in there. Don't read your entire address.

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Yeah. But but but I think part of the fear that people have okay. So Then there's the short yeah. You mentioned the short run attacks. Like, those are long long what's called long range attacks that would basically assume, like, there are UTXOs at rest that are not moving,

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and you have, like, as a quantum attacker, like, an unboundedly high amount of time to try it. You have, like you're you're just racing against other quantum attackers, basically. Right. Yeah. But you have infinite time. Yeah.

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The short range of tasks in question for those

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that everyone, whether they say it or not, is concerned about is, like,

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the lost lost Bitcoin, Satoshi's Bitcoin, you know, a couple million

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Bitcoin worth of liquidity could hit the market if someone did it. Yes. People are worried about their banks. The gigabrain

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conspiracy is that the, quote, unquote, OG selling narrative that we've been seeing lately is actually

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just them slowly getting quantum

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and then sold, which I don't think there's any credence to that. If that's if that's true,

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I would say, like, y'all have no idea how, like, giga bullish that is, that quantum computers are out there. And so Bitcoin's already, like, theoretically, compromisable.

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But they are selling

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slowly in, like, an orderly fashion to not crash the market. And, like, not Satoshi's coins. They're doing smaller OG laws. Right. Exactly.

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But the short range attack thing is, like and I go through this a little bit in the paper I wrote.

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It like, it's already it's already gonna be very challenging to do to get to a crypto cryptanalytically

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relevant quantum computer, CRQC,

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and that can do, like, a long range attack with basically infinite time. Definitely not impossible,

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but there are in addition to, like, being able to do

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the relevant calculations that you could show on, like, you know, bench top, like, simulated conditions that you could put in, like, a paper or something,

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to scale that up physically in the world,

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requires, like, a huge amount of physical infrastructure investment and getting a thousand different dials right. Like, if you if you've looked at all AI, if you looked at, like,

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data center build out, there's a huge amount. It's not just, like, NVIDIA makes, like, a Blackwell,

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accelerator, which has all the chips in it, all the GPUs,

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and then they go and just, like, plug that into an outlet and and now you have AI. Right? Like, there if you go and look at, like, the transition from,

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the hopper class data centers into Blackwell, like, those have been partially delayed because there were all these,

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like, thousands of little, like, tweaks on the margin that NVIDIA had to make to actually make the accelerator optimized for,

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for the data center. And and it's a little things, like, they had to, like, reengineer, like, the floors of the data center to be, like,

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solid enough to, like, hold hold the racks,

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and various other things with, like, the way that the, the clusters, like, interact with each other.

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And so I I say all that because, like, quantum is gonna be that times, like, a thousand. Like, there's so there's so much additional,

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conditionality that has to be,

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that has to be right. What's that? Then you have to do it in secret. And it has to be secret. There's a there's a ton of power that is required.

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There are a ton of things that have to go right in the physical world, infrastructure that has to be set up.

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And, also,

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the hacking of

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keys will will, like, the the power required to do that scales linearly.

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So, like, which is to say, like, you there is not, like, a way to efficiently,

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just, like, take all of the p to p k keys out there and just, like, at once in one shot, like, compromise them all. Like, each one has to go through would have to go through, like, the process

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of kind of being run through,

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quantum computing process,

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which I go through in the paper as well. And so, like, it's gonna be costly.

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It's gonna be very difficult to,

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just do physically. And that's just for long range attacks where you have, like, as much time kind of as you want. Short range attacks,

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theoretically, you have to do like, you kind of have to assume you have, like, a ten minute window, like, on average. Right? Because once it's in a block, once it's in a new address, assuming you're not spending to, you know, a vulnerable address in some way, if once a new address, like,

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the key that was exposed is no longer relevant. It's it's in a block, can't be reversed.

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And so you basically have to you just have to think not only we've gotta deal with all those all those challenges I just enumerated. You've gotta do all that in ten minutes. Right? So short range attacks are are that's the scariest thing for sure,

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because then, yeah, you're in, like, a basically a fee war, right, to make sure you can get into a block fast enough to,

383
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to not have your Bitcoin compromised in flight once you've exposed the public key to spend it. But it's also, like, far and away the highest bar,

384
00:30:47.010 --> 00:30:50.070
to be met. And I think there's still a ton of

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physical stuff that has to happen in addition to just the basic mechanics of error correction. And that's, like, by itself more like a software and design question that still hasn't been fully answered

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at scale.

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So there's a lot that needs to happen for this to get to a point where it's actually,

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a relevant threat. And in the meantime,

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you do have a lot of ways to mitigate the potential threats.

390
00:31:12.800 --> 00:31:16.020
But then there are also a lot of solutions already

391
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that you and I are not,

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either probably like there's this idea of a a load bearing Internet person. And I think similarly, there are, like, load bearing cryptography people. But it's, like, maybe, like, 500 in the world who are less responsible.

393
00:31:31.235 --> 00:31:34.294
Yeah. Like, the reason we can have any sort of impression,

394
00:31:34.640 --> 00:31:43.860
like, functionally across any system is because, like, 500, like, you know, geniuses and graybeards. It's less than a 100 people. Yeah. Probably. Right?

395
00:31:44.560 --> 00:31:48.180
But fortunately, some of those, are very interested in working on Bitcoin.

396
00:31:49.455 --> 00:31:51.155
And there have been several proposals,

397
00:31:51.855 --> 00:31:55.395
some of which I walked through in that piece, and one of which actually just hit this week,

398
00:31:55.934 --> 00:31:56.595
to potentially,

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00:31:57.535 --> 00:31:58.355
upgrade Bitcoin

400
00:31:58.815 --> 00:32:06.120
in ways some of and some ways to do that would not even require a software. But there are also software proposals out there,

401
00:32:06.740 --> 00:32:09.320
to to do it. They all have trade offs. They all have,

402
00:32:10.020 --> 00:32:11.400
things that we need to be considered.

403
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But the idea that, like, this is some insoluble

404
00:32:15.884 --> 00:32:22.865
problem that is just, like, existential for Bitcoin and it's just we're about to drive off a cliff with no way to, you know, reverse or,

405
00:32:23.325 --> 00:32:26.865
hit the brakes or avoid it is just very, very misplaced.

406
00:32:28.040 --> 00:32:29.900
There are a lot of options available

407
00:32:30.520 --> 00:32:32.300
to upgrade Bitcoin to harden it.

408
00:32:32.920 --> 00:32:34.620
Again, many of which are

409
00:32:35.160 --> 00:32:36.220
fairly lightweight

410
00:32:36.520 --> 00:32:39.980
and don't necessarily require some massive change to the protocol.

411
00:32:41.315 --> 00:32:48.455
So, yeah, there's a lot of reason for optimism on that. But the one, I guess, you know, caveat to that is

412
00:32:48.995 --> 00:32:55.575
Bitcoin as this very hard to change system that's, you know, based on rough rough decentralized consensus among

413
00:32:55.980 --> 00:32:57.520
global actors with no

414
00:32:58.059 --> 00:32:59.120
president or

415
00:32:59.420 --> 00:33:11.465
benevolent dictator for life who can kind of force through a change, like, you know, we do have there there will be, like, some coordination friction probably to any kind of change. So it's worth thinking sooner than later on

416
00:33:11.924 --> 00:33:14.825
how would you, you know, what would you ultimately wanna do

417
00:33:15.445 --> 00:33:26.400
to make a fix for this that, mitigates risk without without injecting incremental risk to Bitcoin. And, ideally, you wanna do that before it's, like, you're actually on the clock to, you know, figure it out,

418
00:33:26.780 --> 00:33:29.600
with, like, a real quantum computer that may or may not actually exist.

419
00:33:30.300 --> 00:33:31.120
Yeah. I mean,

420
00:33:34.455 --> 00:33:38.715
I love how you started off that, like, ten minute explanation with

421
00:33:39.015 --> 00:33:41.995
one of the problems is there's no clear concise response.

422
00:33:44.135 --> 00:33:50.980
Case in point. I mean, look, I think from my opinion, first of all, the on the hype side in terms of quantum hype,

423
00:33:53.760 --> 00:33:57.539
just one example of quantum hype is that before Vitalik launched Ethereum,

424
00:33:58.159 --> 00:34:00.100
she raised money for a,

425
00:34:00.880 --> 00:34:04.340
quantum scheme that was supposed to dominate Bitcoin mining.

426
00:34:05.385 --> 00:34:06.845
And that was all bullshit,

427
00:34:07.305 --> 00:34:08.985
and then he launched Ethereum afterwards.

428
00:34:10.985 --> 00:34:12.205
I I personally,

429
00:34:13.305 --> 00:34:14.685
you know, not a cryptographic

430
00:34:15.705 --> 00:34:17.245
not a cryptography expert.

431
00:34:17.920 --> 00:34:19.780
I could hardly even pronounce the word.

432
00:34:20.640 --> 00:34:21.040
But,

433
00:34:21.680 --> 00:34:25.620
I don't really give this much credence. I don't give that much credence to this threat.

434
00:34:27.680 --> 00:34:28.580
I don't really

435
00:34:28.880 --> 00:34:30.420
believe it's a real threat.

436
00:34:30.765 --> 00:34:31.744
Maybe I'm wrong.

437
00:34:32.125 --> 00:34:32.865
That said,

438
00:34:34.045 --> 00:34:40.545
I think the the quote, unquote mitigation is relatively straightforward. I think there's a lot of good research being done.

439
00:34:41.005 --> 00:34:47.230
I think we saw fork in a new address type that is quantum resistant. Resistant. It'll probably cost more in fees to use it.

440
00:34:47.930 --> 00:34:57.630
And then people will choose if they wanna use it or not. And then we can just put a pin in this. And just whenever someone says anything about quantum, it's like, okay. Use the quantum resistant address type and pay more for it.

441
00:34:58.075 --> 00:35:01.135
And people can voluntarily choose to use it or not.

442
00:35:01.595 --> 00:35:02.895
I think it'd be a relatively

443
00:35:03.195 --> 00:35:04.335
easy soft fork

444
00:35:04.715 --> 00:35:08.895
if we need it. If it needed to be a soft fork, which I think most likely it would be,

445
00:35:09.755 --> 00:35:13.890
it'd be a relatively easy soft fork because it doesn't affect anyone who doesn't use the address type,

446
00:35:14.450 --> 00:35:14.950
period.

447
00:35:16.210 --> 00:35:17.910
As for proposals about

448
00:35:18.369 --> 00:35:20.950
what we do with coins that are sitting in,

449
00:35:22.130 --> 00:35:24.230
pay to pub key addresses or whatever,

450
00:35:24.690 --> 00:35:31.935
like, just hard knack, no. I completely disagree with seizing them or freezing them or anything like that. I think that just fundamentally,

451
00:35:32.635 --> 00:35:36.175
you know, the the the quote, unquote cure is worse than the disease.

452
00:35:37.035 --> 00:35:39.455
I think it it fundamentally breaks the

453
00:35:39.950 --> 00:35:41.170
the social contract

454
00:35:41.470 --> 00:35:47.010
that that Bitcoin stakeholders have have gone by this entire time, which is that property rights is sacred.

455
00:35:47.790 --> 00:35:49.010
So if if

456
00:35:49.390 --> 00:35:54.690
the quantum believers are correct and it's not all hype and the old addresses get hit,

457
00:35:56.735 --> 00:35:58.675
we will have some short term volatility.

458
00:35:59.615 --> 00:36:01.315
Bitcoin will take a hit.

459
00:36:02.175 --> 00:36:07.315
It will not be a kill shot, and that will be fine. If we seize the if we seize Bitcoin preemptively

460
00:36:07.775 --> 00:36:09.475
Yep. And quantum never materializes,

461
00:36:10.270 --> 00:36:13.070
we just kill shot at Bitcoin ourselves is what we did.

462
00:36:13.390 --> 00:36:18.690
Like, Bitcoin has very in my in my opinion, Bitcoin fails at that point. Yeah.

463
00:36:19.710 --> 00:36:21.390
Just to put a pin in this, just to

464
00:36:23.915 --> 00:36:25.375
I'm curious your opinion.

465
00:36:25.994 --> 00:36:26.815
Do you think

466
00:36:27.435 --> 00:36:30.095
so we were the all time high was one twenty six.

467
00:36:31.755 --> 00:36:35.055
You're already on the record saying cycles are fake and to sigh up.

468
00:36:35.675 --> 00:36:37.295
We're at 90 k.

469
00:36:38.190 --> 00:36:41.330
So I'm I'm not the quant. That's, like, a 35%

470
00:36:41.470 --> 00:36:44.690
or 35% down or something like that from all time highs.

471
00:36:45.950 --> 00:36:47.970
Am I correct on that? Yeah.

472
00:36:49.150 --> 00:36:52.690
Do you think quant the quantum stuff has had anything to do with that,

473
00:36:54.025 --> 00:36:54.845
price action?

474
00:36:55.145 --> 00:36:55.885
I tweeted,

475
00:36:58.025 --> 00:36:59.485
like, a few weeks ago.

476
00:37:00.505 --> 00:37:00.825
I,

477
00:37:01.385 --> 00:37:03.625
I put out a tweet, and I'm sorry that I didn't,

478
00:37:04.825 --> 00:37:06.525
post it on Nostra instead.

479
00:37:07.530 --> 00:37:11.630
I don't really know why I didn't. I think it was just some more, like, fiat tweet, so I left it back there. But,

480
00:37:11.930 --> 00:37:16.110
I said an inexhaustive list of things not causing the Bitcoin sell off,

481
00:37:16.650 --> 00:37:17.710
Zcash rotation,

482
00:37:18.250 --> 00:37:19.230
quantum computing,

483
00:37:19.930 --> 00:37:27.125
spam, spam debates, the yen carry trade, and elaborate micro strategy fan fiction, which was floating around a couple weeks ago.

484
00:37:27.664 --> 00:37:30.964
So I think quantum computing is not the reason that we dumped

485
00:37:31.265 --> 00:37:31.744
from,

486
00:37:32.065 --> 00:37:33.285
all time highs to

487
00:37:33.825 --> 00:37:34.625
90.

488
00:37:35.345 --> 00:37:37.684
I I think that has much more to do with,

489
00:37:38.319 --> 00:37:43.460
liquidity cycle, bank reserves getting tight. Bitcoin's always the first thing to move in both directions

490
00:37:45.680 --> 00:37:46.180
when,

491
00:37:46.559 --> 00:37:48.980
there's a when you're running up on a liquidity,

492
00:37:50.000 --> 00:37:52.740
issue or when liquidity is starting to inflect higher.

493
00:37:54.055 --> 00:38:04.315
And, you know, there's also, like, in general, the market for the last month or so has been traditional assets has been rockier with a lot more fears on the AI trade and,

494
00:38:04.775 --> 00:38:07.915
some of the AI stalwarts kinda coming under pressure. Bitcoin,

495
00:38:08.700 --> 00:38:12.400
rightly or wrongly, has clear correlation to tech stocks and,

496
00:38:12.859 --> 00:38:14.800
high beta high momentum stuff. So,

497
00:38:15.340 --> 00:38:17.040
I think that that is, like,

498
00:38:17.580 --> 00:38:18.780
99.9%

499
00:38:18.780 --> 00:38:31.915
of the reason that Bitcoin moves kinda, like, ever other than the only other major drivers are something really fundamental, like, the president of The United States gets elected and said he wants says he wants to do his treaty Bitcoin reserve or, like, ETFs come into play or something like that.

500
00:38:32.455 --> 00:38:40.059
No. I don't think we sold off because of any of those individual things. On the margin, do I think, like, there are people who were looking at the price action

501
00:38:40.440 --> 00:38:43.559
and looking at, shit, it fell from $1.27

502
00:38:43.559 --> 00:38:54.944
to 90. I feel pretty bad about that. I don't, you know, I don't love the macro setup for the next six months. And there's this, like, random quantum thing I don't understand that everyone's telling me about. Like, yeah. You know what? I might as well take some off the table.

503
00:38:55.404 --> 00:38:59.744
That definitely is, like, a thought process I imagine a lot of people have had. But the,

504
00:39:00.924 --> 00:39:02.384
the reason for it,

505
00:39:03.005 --> 00:39:04.065
for, like, the initial

506
00:39:04.839 --> 00:39:22.595
sell off impulse, I think, has nothing to do with quantum computing. Ironically, I do think it might relate to the four year the four year cycle meme because there is, like, an element of self fulfilling prophecy, and there are people who have been in the trade thinking that they were gonna get some crazy Bitcoin pump in q four because that's what the calendar says. So you definitely have tourists and

507
00:39:23.055 --> 00:39:26.515
leverage traders who have gotten wiped out or gotten blown out,

508
00:39:27.055 --> 00:39:35.270
when, you know, that didn't play out. So, like, that that has probably been, I think, more relevant than, like, quantum computing spheres. But, yeah, that's that's my thought on that.

509
00:39:35.570 --> 00:39:41.430
I will just say that there hasn't been a single serious investor who has asked me about Zcash.

510
00:39:42.210 --> 00:39:43.270
So it's definitely

511
00:39:43.650 --> 00:39:48.150
not related to, quote, unquote, Zcash rotation, but I like that you had it in there.

512
00:39:50.195 --> 00:39:52.455
So then on that note, like, how do you explain

513
00:39:54.115 --> 00:40:00.375
how do you explain Mag seven near all time highs, gold at all time highs, silver at all time highs, and Bitcoin down 35%?

514
00:40:00.994 --> 00:40:01.494
Yeah.

515
00:40:03.330 --> 00:40:10.070
Well, like I said, like, Mag seven's definitely gone through, like, more volatility in the last month, and I think when Mag seven, like, sneezes,

516
00:40:10.610 --> 00:40:12.630
Bitcoin catches a cold a lot of the time.

517
00:40:13.410 --> 00:40:17.750
The gold one is the more interesting one to me. Right? Like, the And silver.

518
00:40:18.545 --> 00:40:25.605
Yeah. Silver's are more than gold. Silver's got silver's got, like, an industrial dynamic to it where if you look at a lot of, like, industrial metals, they're kind

519
00:40:26.865 --> 00:40:28.565
of, showing similar moves,

520
00:40:29.585 --> 00:40:32.565
because of, I think partially because of the

521
00:40:34.250 --> 00:40:38.970
the AI build out and, people pre positioning ahead of seeing all the,

522
00:40:40.569 --> 00:40:42.170
metals are gonna be needed to,

523
00:40:42.490 --> 00:40:48.495
pull that off whether it's here or in China or somewhere else. So to some extent, I think that's, like, a an industrial story. But,

524
00:40:49.215 --> 00:40:51.715
you know, we've always we've always wanted to see

525
00:40:52.575 --> 00:40:57.555
Bitcoin decoupling from gold, and then the monkey's paw curled, and we decoupled the wrong way.

526
00:40:58.655 --> 00:40:59.395
And I think,

527
00:41:01.710 --> 00:41:04.190
a couple years ago, Parker Lewis had a,

528
00:41:05.790 --> 00:41:07.090
did a talk at,

529
00:41:08.430 --> 00:41:09.810
it's like a club in Dallas,

530
00:41:10.910 --> 00:41:11.410
called

531
00:41:11.710 --> 00:41:13.090
Bitcoin is not a hedge.

532
00:41:13.515 --> 00:41:14.015
And

533
00:41:14.395 --> 00:41:17.055
it's it's good talk. It's, like, probably only twenty minutes long.

534
00:41:17.515 --> 00:41:24.095
One of the points he makes in there is that effectively, like, the knowledge of Bitcoin is not sufficiently, like, widely distributed

535
00:41:24.635 --> 00:41:27.035
for Bitcoin to serve as, like, a

536
00:41:33.780 --> 00:41:41.480
valve for central banks around the world and treasuries around the world and big sovereign actors and massive institutional actors

537
00:41:41.780 --> 00:41:42.600
to express

538
00:41:43.295 --> 00:41:45.955
the what you could call, like, the debasement trade thesis.

539
00:41:46.415 --> 00:41:47.795
And so when those

540
00:41:48.495 --> 00:41:56.035
when those groups look to get out of the dollar system and or even just like the fiat systems in general, get into outside money, like,

541
00:41:56.520 --> 00:42:01.580
gold realistically has, what, like, a ten thousand year track record, and a lot of them already own a bunch of gold anyway.

542
00:42:02.120 --> 00:42:04.460
They're set up to be able to

543
00:42:04.760 --> 00:42:07.100
allocate to that quickly. They get it.

544
00:42:07.960 --> 00:42:09.340
They it is, like,

545
00:42:10.175 --> 00:42:14.035
it is less volatile, although Bitcoin's volatility is coming down, so they have that argument.

546
00:42:14.895 --> 00:42:18.835
And I think, like, the knee jerk for the headlines that we're seeing this year about,

547
00:42:20.255 --> 00:42:22.035
The US is gonna do financial repression,

548
00:42:22.390 --> 00:42:25.609
US debt burden's crazy, we need to get outside of,

549
00:42:26.950 --> 00:42:35.850
rotate some value potentially out of US treasuries, especially given what's probably coming down the pipe in the next couple years, what Trump wants to do with one big beautiful bill, everything else.

550
00:42:36.744 --> 00:42:38.365
Debt and deficits are only gonna expand.

551
00:42:38.825 --> 00:42:39.645
And meanwhile,

552
00:42:40.265 --> 00:42:46.205
the The US is basically telling everyone, like, in some sense, like, take your capital and go home because we wanna reshore,

553
00:42:46.985 --> 00:42:57.430
manufacturing and we wanna basically rework the entire entire global trade order. So, like, your natural move is if you want to rotate into some other, like, neutral reserve asset,

554
00:42:58.770 --> 00:43:02.310
the really the only thing that's available to you if you're in that mindset

555
00:43:02.610 --> 00:43:05.910
is gold. Right? And I think only this past year

556
00:43:06.395 --> 00:43:10.655
this past year, year and a half have groups like that really had to confront

557
00:43:11.275 --> 00:43:14.815
that trade that we've all been kind of, like, implicitly or explicitly

558
00:43:15.435 --> 00:43:16.575
expressing with Bitcoin,

559
00:43:17.435 --> 00:43:19.135
for the last, you know, fifteen years.

560
00:43:19.860 --> 00:43:23.080
They've only really started to take that seriously, I think, in the last couple years,

561
00:43:23.540 --> 00:43:27.000
other than China, which has been rotating heavily into gold for the last ten years. But

562
00:43:27.300 --> 00:43:35.815
for them, all that is to say, like, the the move there, if you want to express that thesis, is just naturally gold. Right? It's not it's not Bitcoin,

563
00:43:36.515 --> 00:43:37.015
yet.

564
00:43:37.555 --> 00:43:44.035
Although there's some maybe growing exceptions to that that we can talk about. But we're so early in Bitcoin's life cycle that,

565
00:43:45.570 --> 00:43:52.150
the tailwinds that you've seen for gold, I think, are happening for reasons that are not yet easily, like, replicable

566
00:43:52.770 --> 00:44:10.674
for Bitcoin because Yep. Knowledge of it and understanding of it just is not sufficiently distributed among the people who are making those decisions. Well, at some point, like, this Bitcoin, I think, will be treated as the ultimate safe haven, like, the ultimate risk off asset. And we're just not there in its adoption cycle yet. And I think part of it, by the way, is

567
00:44:11.214 --> 00:44:18.500
if you're not if you're not holding self custody Bitcoin, it's hard to feel the safe haven aspects of Bitcoin. Like, if you're holding iBit,

568
00:44:19.040 --> 00:44:21.060
it feels like a shitcoin to a degree.

569
00:44:22.000 --> 00:44:25.300
You know, it feels like a risk on asset in a lot of ways.

570
00:44:26.535 --> 00:44:32.795
A lot of a lot of, like, the intrinsic and I, you know, I kinda use that word in a in a punny way.

571
00:44:33.815 --> 00:44:50.700
Value of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset comes from the fact that I can hold it offline, that you can't seize it for me, that I can spend and save it without permission. And I think people that aren't using it in self custody fashion, it's gonna be harder for them to come to terms with that. But this is why I brought up the Mag seven.

572
00:44:51.080 --> 00:44:53.660
Right? Because I think it's reasonable to be like, okay.

573
00:44:54.505 --> 00:44:58.045
People are starting to realize mandibles is starting to get priced in.

574
00:44:59.065 --> 00:45:11.220
And people are starting to realize that, and they're moving into gold and silver. Silver was kinda like an echo trade to gold. Right? It's like gold moved first, and then people are like, oh, I can make some money on silver that hasn't moved yet, and then it moved harder.

575
00:45:13.359 --> 00:45:17.540
But but the interesting one is the Mag seven. Is that that

576
00:45:18.880 --> 00:45:21.940
I mean, that Mag seven is basically the S and P now.

577
00:45:22.745 --> 00:45:26.285
And so if you look at the S and P, the S and P is, like, right near all time highs,

578
00:45:26.665 --> 00:45:29.245
and that's obviously a risk on type of scenario.

579
00:45:29.865 --> 00:45:38.460
How do you explain that? Like, do you have a good explanation for that? I have my own theory. But Well, I mean, first thing I would say is, like, give it some time. Like, let's see. Because,

580
00:45:39.000 --> 00:45:39.500
historically,

581
00:45:40.200 --> 00:45:43.660
you know, Bitcoin's done this before in on both the upside and the downside,

582
00:45:44.760 --> 00:45:51.915
where, like, even earlier this year, if you remember, like, the local top at the start of this year was Trump's inauguration.

583
00:45:52.455 --> 00:45:56.955
And then it was just kinda, like, down only on Bitcoin. It was, like, really ugly choppy price action

584
00:45:57.255 --> 00:46:08.430
for a couple months, and equities didn't really respond until, like, late February, early March. And then you had, like, the real dump in early April when Trump did Liberation Day. Right? So we're

585
00:46:08.730 --> 00:46:15.465
coming up on a period that, like, you know, if if you were to map the, you know, early this year to now, like, you're coming on a period that

586
00:46:15.765 --> 00:46:22.345
could be potentially start to get actually more meaningfully rocky for equities to the extent that Bitcoin is again predicting, you know,

587
00:46:22.885 --> 00:46:23.945
tightness in liquidity,

588
00:46:24.770 --> 00:46:26.070
or some other, like,

589
00:46:27.250 --> 00:46:39.029
issue in the system. And that's, like, that's one anecdote, but you if you go back through Bitcoin's, like, price history, like, you'll see that over and over again that Bitcoin will have, like Last fake cycle or whatever, March 2020.

590
00:46:39.485 --> 00:46:43.745
Yep. Bitcoin fell first. Yep. And then equities had their

591
00:46:44.525 --> 00:46:49.665
bloody few days of, like, limit downs over and over again, market closed, and then Bitcoin,

592
00:46:51.405 --> 00:46:55.320
bounced first before everyone else. I'm looking at the chart. Like, Bitcoin ended

593
00:46:55.780 --> 00:46:57.160
January 2020,

594
00:46:57.380 --> 00:46:59.640
like, right bumping up against, like, 10,000.

595
00:47:00.020 --> 00:47:00.760
And then,

596
00:47:01.220 --> 00:47:10.914
this chart doesn't capture the the really brutal day in March, but, like March 12. March 12. Yeah. But, like, in early and by early March by early March, it was down to, like, 6,000.

597
00:47:11.135 --> 00:47:20.115
Right? And that was before anyone like, that was before the NBA had closed down, and everyone was, like, that's that seems to be the day that everyone took seriously that, like, they were really just gonna close the economy.

598
00:47:20.730 --> 00:47:34.965
But you had a couple months of, like, pretty bad price action for Bitcoin before it was, like, really obvious to the equity markets. And I was, like, I was in hedge fund seat at that time and, like, yeah, February was I remember February being, like, choppy and, like, people were talking about,

599
00:47:35.825 --> 00:47:40.785
COVID, but, like, it was still, like, effectively racist in, like, 2020.

600
00:47:40.785 --> 00:47:43.925
To be clear to be clear, the NBA shut down March 11.

601
00:47:44.385 --> 00:47:44.885
Yeah.

602
00:47:45.740 --> 00:47:53.040
Yeah. So the the really bad day in Bitcoin was the day after the NBA shut that was when it hit everyone. They were like, oh, fuck. Yeah.

603
00:47:54.380 --> 00:48:09.565
So, anyway, not not to get us on the Sorry. That particular, like, period of That was actually the having cycle that had that was a little bit it was tangentially related. But there are a bunch of examples like this is my point of when you see, like, inexplicably, like, oh, Bitcoin just took, like, a 40%

604
00:48:09.565 --> 00:48:11.345
bath for no, like, obvious

605
00:48:11.645 --> 00:48:12.145
reason,

606
00:48:12.605 --> 00:48:20.950
or it's, like, suddenly trading really badly before everything else is, like, what's going on? Like, you know, generally, I've found since I've been paying close attention to Bitcoin,

607
00:48:22.690 --> 00:48:38.375
generally, I found that that's typically a good signal that there's choppiness ahead for for general risk assets, probably on the offset of, like, you know, one to three months. Right? So all that is just to say, like, let's see, like, let's see what happens with Mag seven. If you've been paying attention this week, like,

608
00:48:38.835 --> 00:48:41.015
Oracle had an an awful print,

609
00:48:41.474 --> 00:48:52.490
stock was down Oracle is not Mag seven. Today, which hilariously, like, for, like, just as a quick tangent, like, Oracle is this great example of yeah. It's down another 4% today.

610
00:48:53.350 --> 00:48:55.850
Oracle is this great example of, like, the

611
00:48:56.150 --> 00:49:14.900
the logical conclusion of, like, late stage fiat because you may remember this summer, the stock was up, like, 40%. It's, like, already it was already, like, a, you know, multi $100,000,000,000 stock, like, $600,000,000,000 stock. It was up, like, 40% in one day because Larry Ellison made some crazy projections about, you know, ridiculous numbers over the next few years that probably they're never gonna hit. And

612
00:49:15.280 --> 00:49:27.435
then since then, it's it's had this massive down move. It's unwound all of it. And it's basically, like, a round trip this year. You've got, like, essentially a trillion dollar company that has had these insane moves this year on both the upside and the downside. It's basically gone nowhere.

613
00:49:28.395 --> 00:49:31.135
So as we just think about, like, why Bitcoin and

614
00:49:31.675 --> 00:49:36.495
why are we seeing why why is something like this necessary and useful as, like, a long term savings vehicle?

615
00:49:37.275 --> 00:49:44.150
You know, there's there's your answer. Like, one of the biggest companies in the world, one of the you know, a 50 year old tech stalwart is trade trading like, you know,

616
00:49:45.250 --> 00:49:46.630
a meme coin. Right?

617
00:49:48.050 --> 00:49:51.910
But anyway, if you're looking at that, if you're looking at the Broadcom print today,

618
00:49:53.490 --> 00:50:07.035
you're definitely seeing NVIDIA has been under pressure. OpenAI is now has gone from being, like, in, you know, six weeks being, like, the industry darling, you know, to to end all industry darlings to, like, everyone basically saying, like, yeah, they're they're, you know, they're dead. Google is gonna,

619
00:50:07.655 --> 00:50:19.270
price them out of the market and, you know, Alban's gonna be it's gonna be a total zero. Right? Like, that's the, that's the consensus now. So, like, all that is just to to get back to your point on Mag seven. Like, the AI complex is, like, not looking great right now.

620
00:50:20.230 --> 00:50:22.650
And that's before you even consider, like, other,

621
00:50:23.270 --> 00:50:30.605
you know, liquidity dynamics in in the background. So, like, let's see, like, what happens over the next, like, month or two with with equities,

622
00:50:32.185 --> 00:50:33.965
before we really make a call on

623
00:50:34.505 --> 00:50:38.205
Bitcoin's, like, correlation and whether it's, like, you know, totally off base.

624
00:50:38.505 --> 00:50:40.925
But I do think, like, more generally,

625
00:50:42.530 --> 00:50:44.550
for people who are looking ahead to

626
00:50:45.170 --> 00:50:47.190
do do you wanna say something? I'm sorry. I've been filibustering.

627
00:50:49.730 --> 00:50:54.050
No. I was looking at the Oracle chart. It like, it's pretty hilarious five year chart.

628
00:50:54.530 --> 00:50:55.030
The,

629
00:50:56.405 --> 00:50:58.665
well, the one thing I would say is

630
00:50:59.205 --> 00:51:05.465
and I I like just letting you cook, so don't let me interrupt you again, but you offered, so I'm gonna interrupt you.

631
00:51:06.244 --> 00:51:09.145
I have no equities exposure except for

632
00:51:09.819 --> 00:51:14.160
the Bitcoin businesses that envy, that ten thirty one has invested in.

633
00:51:15.660 --> 00:51:18.720
Obviously, most of those are private companies with the,

634
00:51:19.980 --> 00:51:21.680
exception right now of Fold,

635
00:51:22.780 --> 00:51:27.405
which we hold public shares and that we're private, and we help bring them public.

636
00:51:30.345 --> 00:51:34.765
So I'm very much like a stay humble stack assessor. But for the average person,

637
00:51:35.464 --> 00:51:36.605
from my view,

638
00:51:36.905 --> 00:51:39.005
you know, so the Mag seven is

639
00:51:39.420 --> 00:51:40.160
Apple, Microsoft,

640
00:51:40.540 --> 00:51:41.839
Amazon, Alphabet,

641
00:51:42.380 --> 00:51:42.880
Facebook,

642
00:51:43.180 --> 00:51:43.680
Meta,

643
00:51:44.059 --> 00:51:45.280
Nvidia, and Tesla.

644
00:51:47.740 --> 00:51:48.720
Apple, Microsoft,

645
00:51:49.020 --> 00:51:49.520
Amazon,

646
00:51:51.339 --> 00:51:53.119
Alphabet, Meta. So, basically,

647
00:51:53.420 --> 00:51:54.880
not Nvidia or Tesla.

648
00:51:56.245 --> 00:52:00.105
I think there's, like, a decent argument that they're being priced as risk off assets.

649
00:52:00.565 --> 00:52:04.665
It's like, how bad could it get? Like, I'm not once again, this is not financial advice.

650
00:52:04.965 --> 00:52:14.260
But, like, if you're sitting there and you're trying not to lose your money and you're looking at debasement happening and you're looking at chaos in the world, and you don't really know what to do,

651
00:52:14.880 --> 00:52:17.460
like, those those five of seven,

652
00:52:17.840 --> 00:52:21.780
I'm looking at those, and I'm like, okay. Like, how bad could it get for Google?

653
00:52:22.080 --> 00:52:26.180
Right? Like, Google has got a massive war chest. They're sitting in a great position.

654
00:52:26.585 --> 00:52:29.644
Apple's sitting in a great position. Amazon's sitting in a great position.

655
00:52:30.025 --> 00:52:31.805
They're mostly recession resistant.

656
00:52:33.464 --> 00:52:37.805
Like, I I think they might be trading, and maybe the market is wrong about it,

657
00:52:38.585 --> 00:52:42.444
but the market is almost pricing them as a risk off type of

658
00:52:42.880 --> 00:52:45.140
trade. They're like, I'm just gonna index to them,

659
00:52:45.680 --> 00:52:59.825
put my money there, and I should be good. But is that crazy thought? No. I think that I mean, I would maybe phrase it a little differently, but I definitely think that's right, like, in, directionality. Like, the biggest companies in the S and P are effectively, like, everyone's savings account now.

660
00:53:01.005 --> 00:53:01.505
And,

661
00:53:01.805 --> 00:53:05.265
you know, it's funny because, like, they're all you know, they used to be cash flow machines,

662
00:53:06.045 --> 00:53:15.590
with massive Fortress balance sheets. And now this year, they've a lot of them are, like, really levering up in increasingly, like, opaque ways to fund the the data center build out. So that's kind of a funny,

663
00:53:16.470 --> 00:53:25.609
you know, development in the narrative behind those businesses. But I I definitely think that's that's a big piece of it. Like, people have been trained to to buy the dip on large cap stocks.

664
00:53:26.295 --> 00:53:31.115
It's worked extremely well for the basically, since financial crisis and certainly for the last ten years.

665
00:53:32.055 --> 00:53:36.875
And I think even more so, I don't know that it's necessarily that people see it as, like, a risk off

666
00:53:37.255 --> 00:53:40.234
asset as much as it's, like, kind of there is no alternative.

667
00:53:40.809 --> 00:53:44.430
Yeah. You're not gonna own bonds if you think there's financial repression coming.

668
00:53:45.049 --> 00:53:49.789
And assuming you're not, like, a retiree who needs, like, the current income. Right? Like, you you wanna kinda deweight bonds.

669
00:53:51.450 --> 00:53:53.549
So if you don't believe in Bitcoin,

670
00:53:53.934 --> 00:54:11.220
well, your options are, like, gold and large cap stocks. Because, like, smaller cap stocks, harder to underwrite But specifically, like, the top five. Yeah. Right. Exactly. Like, they're you're gonna concentrate to the biggest brand name. It's not large cap. It's like mega cap. Mega cap stocks that have the dominant market position that are basically, like, monopolies slash, like, duopolies,

671
00:54:12.080 --> 00:54:18.160
in in, like, the fastest growing the only really growing sector in, like, the Western world, right, is, like, at least from an

672
00:54:18.800 --> 00:54:19.619
the only, like,

673
00:54:19.965 --> 00:54:32.465
industrial growing sector is, like, data center build out and AI leverage and then, like, tech more generally. So that's where you concentrate. But I think, like, specifically too, there's this, like I do think the market is becoming more and more aware of

674
00:54:32.970 --> 00:54:38.910
what the plan is from the Trump administration. I think that plan is basically, like, pretty explicitly to run it hot,

675
00:54:39.450 --> 00:54:42.030
to, as Besson has said, grow our way out of the debt.

676
00:54:42.650 --> 00:54:49.835
You've seen the one big beautiful bill that got passed earlier this year. That's gonna have a lot of, things that kick in in '26.

677
00:54:50.695 --> 00:54:51.835
And, you know,

678
00:54:52.535 --> 00:54:54.155
Trump is likely going to

679
00:54:54.455 --> 00:54:54.955
institute,

680
00:54:55.735 --> 00:54:57.035
a a sycophant,

681
00:54:57.415 --> 00:55:00.155
of some sort at the Fed who's gonna be his yes man.

682
00:55:01.480 --> 00:55:05.500
He they're gonna get rates lower and they're gonna get the Fed to accommodate,

683
00:55:06.680 --> 00:55:29.795
the what the treasury needs because, like, at the end of the day, like, the sovereign's gonna get funded. They have, you know the treasury has the guns and the Fed doesn't. So, like, treasury's gonna gonna get what it needs one or the other. That may flow through the commercial banking system. Maybe it's the fed. Who knows? But in any case, I think people are looking at that. And they're looking at this the basement trade's happening. They're gonna do financial repression. They're gonna run it hot on an existing massive debt burden. Well,

684
00:55:30.160 --> 00:55:43.445
I need to own something that's not bonds. And I'd like to maybe own something that is basically getting to the point of being, like, too big to fail and key to the strategy of being able to run it hot, which at this point is, like, mega cap AI stocks. Right? Like, you know,

685
00:55:43.985 --> 00:55:48.085
Sam Altman, CFO at OpenAI, kind of a few weeks ago floated the idea

686
00:55:48.705 --> 00:55:54.565
of OpenAI getting, like, a federal backstop for all their build out because it's so capital intensive. And she kinda walked it back later.

687
00:55:54.945 --> 00:56:05.000
But it definitely seemed like a trial balloon. David Sacks tweeted a couple weeks ago about how vital the AI build out was to GDP growth and that we can't afford to go backwards or we'll have a recession.

688
00:56:05.540 --> 00:56:17.454
And so I think people are looking at that as well saying, like, so these guys are explicitly telling they're giving the game away. They're telling us, like, no more Doge. We shut Doge down, like, you know, months early. The plan is to,

689
00:56:18.234 --> 00:56:21.934
spend away and hope that there's enough fiscal impulse to,

690
00:56:22.474 --> 00:56:23.934
for GDP to outpace,

691
00:56:24.315 --> 00:56:26.255
the growth and debt burden and to subsidize

692
00:56:26.850 --> 00:56:52.545
ongoing deficits. Trump is out there telling like, yesterday, Trump said, like, I I don't see why we can't have 25% GDP growth. People see that, and I think it's, like, they need, like, a a general, like, a way to respond in terms of just where where do I move my capital in that environment. But then also, like, specifically, it seems like these several industries are getting called out as, like, the only industries that matter to keep the economy going. And, like, the the companies that are most critical to that happening are,

693
00:56:53.280 --> 00:56:54.100
Google, Meta,

694
00:56:54.960 --> 00:56:55.460
Amazon,

695
00:56:55.760 --> 00:56:56.260
Nvidia,

696
00:56:56.560 --> 00:57:01.060
and the the rest of the Mac seven and a few other big large top three. Fail trade, basically. Yeah. Exactly.

697
00:57:01.360 --> 00:57:04.880
Like, there is it's there is an alternative slash too big to fail kinda colliding,

698
00:57:05.680 --> 00:57:07.380
and I think that's a big piece of it.

699
00:57:08.365 --> 00:57:09.985
People could, I think, express

700
00:57:10.445 --> 00:57:12.305
a lot of that bet more cleanly,

701
00:57:12.845 --> 00:57:17.185
or or that, that thesis more cleanly by just owning Bitcoin for the long term.

702
00:57:18.045 --> 00:57:22.225
But I I think that's a that's a part of it too is, like, this this Tina effect.

703
00:57:24.530 --> 00:57:25.030
Yeah.

704
00:57:25.970 --> 00:57:27.350
I don't know. It's an interesting

705
00:57:28.370 --> 00:57:30.450
it's an interesting scenario. So the

706
00:57:31.330 --> 00:57:32.790
on the QE piece,

707
00:57:33.090 --> 00:57:34.070
the Fed just

708
00:57:34.855 --> 00:57:36.555
cut rates again. Bitcoin

709
00:57:37.495 --> 00:57:37.975
kind of

710
00:57:38.695 --> 00:57:39.435
I I

711
00:57:39.895 --> 00:57:40.875
kind of reacted

712
00:57:42.375 --> 00:57:43.835
and then immediately dumped.

713
00:57:44.615 --> 00:57:45.415
What is your

714
00:57:46.375 --> 00:57:47.995
what what is your read on that?

715
00:57:48.390 --> 00:57:55.829
Yeah. It's just it's just BART price action all the way, both up and down. There you got your bar. You got your reverse. We hit, like, $94.05.

716
00:57:55.829 --> 00:58:01.265
People are like, the bull market's back in session straight to $1.26, and then we dump. Yeah.

717
00:58:01.645 --> 00:58:02.145
I,

718
00:58:02.605 --> 00:58:04.785
I I posted on on Oster

719
00:58:05.484 --> 00:58:06.305
last week,

720
00:58:06.605 --> 00:58:07.984
or maybe early this week.

721
00:58:08.365 --> 00:58:12.305
I saw some, like I think it was, like, a Bitcoin mag post about, like,

722
00:58:12.620 --> 00:58:14.860
Bitcoin rockets to 92,800

723
00:58:14.860 --> 00:58:22.960
doll and, you know, the bull market's back in swing. And I was just, like, we are not gonna really restart the bull market until people stop posting, like,

724
00:58:23.740 --> 00:58:28.240
overly excited tweets about 3% moves to, like, random price thresholds that don't mean anything.

725
00:58:29.555 --> 00:58:34.135
But, yeah, I mean, Bitcoin's moves around, like, FOMC meetings are, like, famously kind of,

726
00:58:35.635 --> 00:58:39.734
you know, not super helpful and scammy. Scammy both ways, like,

727
00:58:40.115 --> 00:58:45.330
you get shorts taken out and longs taken out, and mostly when it's all said and done, you kinda end up right where you were.

728
00:58:47.070 --> 00:58:49.890
But so I don't know if there's a lot to read into from

729
00:58:50.190 --> 00:58:51.330
Bitcoin's reaction.

730
00:58:52.990 --> 00:58:55.965
But you're gonna you're gonna piss off a lot of people

731
00:58:56.345 --> 00:58:56.845
on,

732
00:58:57.385 --> 00:59:06.765
financial Twitter, which I know you really you're you're really worried about that. They're listening they're listening to the show, so be careful what you say. There are lit there are literally ones of them listening to the show right now.

733
00:59:07.820 --> 00:59:08.320
But,

734
00:59:09.260 --> 00:59:12.160
I like FinTwit. I'm I was I was a lurker.

735
00:59:12.860 --> 00:59:20.400
Yeah. Okay. So, you know, like, the, there will be a lot of people in that crowd who will say that, you know, QE hasn't restarted

736
00:59:20.955 --> 00:59:23.855
because QE is long duration asset purchases

737
00:59:24.155 --> 00:59:30.495
intended to stimulate risk appetite. Yeah. It's like a semantics thing. Right? Yeah. And you know what? That's fair enough.

738
00:59:31.515 --> 00:59:32.895
But at the end of the day,

739
00:59:33.755 --> 00:59:35.695
so what happened at the Fed meeting was,

740
00:59:36.150 --> 00:59:40.650
in addition to the rate cut, the Fed said, you know, quantitative tightening is ending, which we knew,

741
00:59:41.589 --> 00:59:44.890
they announced they're going to go to a cadence of buying,

742
00:59:46.309 --> 00:59:47.450
$40,000,000,000,

743
00:59:47.750 --> 00:59:50.650
a month of short dated US treasuries.

744
00:59:52.285 --> 00:59:53.345
But short dated,

745
00:59:53.965 --> 00:59:59.425
means for them apparently up to three or tenors. So, like, that's that's more duration than people thought.

746
01:00:00.125 --> 01:00:01.985
So that was, like, incrementally dovish.

747
01:00:02.765 --> 01:00:04.065
They're gonna be doing that

748
01:00:04.490 --> 01:00:06.190
ostensibly as a way to,

749
01:00:06.730 --> 01:00:09.150
for reserve management purchases, so RMPs.

750
01:00:09.450 --> 01:00:13.309
So a new I believe that's a new acronym for them. They might have used that before, but,

751
01:00:14.329 --> 01:00:17.950
usually, it's, like, directionally bullish over, like, a twelve month period.

752
01:00:18.329 --> 01:00:23.175
The the trailing twelve month or, I guess, the leading twelve month performance after,

753
01:00:24.595 --> 01:00:31.975
a new Fed Alphabet Soup, facility is created is, like, generally pretty good. So they're gonna do this because, as I kind of referenced earlier,

754
01:00:33.210 --> 01:00:36.830
reserves in the banking system have started to get tighter,

755
01:00:37.610 --> 01:00:40.810
below, like, what is commonly cited as, like, a $3,000,000,000,000

756
01:00:40.810 --> 01:00:41.310
threshold.

757
01:00:42.250 --> 01:00:43.710
That's having all sorts of,

758
01:00:44.730 --> 01:00:45.950
impacts on,

759
01:00:46.490 --> 01:00:48.955
the the repo market and kind of,

760
01:00:49.575 --> 01:00:51.035
interbank plumbing rates,

761
01:00:51.895 --> 01:00:57.595
that if you're, like, wonkish and, like, follow this stuff, you can see. And they're definitely that's something they really care about, so looking at that.

762
01:00:58.855 --> 01:01:07.940
But anyway, you're you're now flipping to a a stance of not quantitative tightening, so not letting the balance sheet shrink naturally as, securities mature,

763
01:01:09.200 --> 01:01:11.220
but, actually going to purchasing,

764
01:01:11.920 --> 01:01:13.380
on net securities outright,

765
01:01:14.080 --> 01:01:15.300
and treasure securities.

766
01:01:16.575 --> 01:01:20.435
And you could say, like, well, that's not taking duration out of the market,

767
01:01:20.735 --> 01:01:22.115
but what happened

768
01:01:22.575 --> 01:01:25.955
if if that's coordinated at the same time with the Fed

769
01:01:26.575 --> 01:01:36.600
shifting even more aggressively away from issuing at the long end at all and issuing a lot more at the short end, and then they've got the Fed turning around and subsidizing directly a lot of,

770
01:01:37.000 --> 01:01:37.740
that issuance,

771
01:01:38.360 --> 01:01:44.780
then, like, that that is absolutely, like, on net incrementally taking duration that otherwise would have been there out of the market.

772
01:01:45.105 --> 01:01:52.085
It's like a duration rotation from long term to short term. Yeah. So and there there have been debates on this throughout, like, the last twenty years of, like,

773
01:01:52.385 --> 01:01:56.005
operation twist, if you remember that from, like, ten or fifteen years ago.

774
01:01:56.385 --> 01:01:59.380
You know, what counts as QE? Like, frankly, I don't remember This

775
01:01:59.680 --> 01:02:05.940
is the joke we make on rabbit hole recap. Like, it's not a Bitcoin dump unless Marty certifies at a Bitcoin dump. Yeah. Right. Exactly.

776
01:02:06.960 --> 01:02:12.259
Yep. It's a it's a it's a bullshit semantics that doesn't really matter. But my question to you more is

777
01:02:14.215 --> 01:02:15.515
as someone who,

778
01:02:16.775 --> 01:02:18.395
holds all my assets in Bitcoin,

779
01:02:20.375 --> 01:02:21.035
you know,

780
01:02:21.415 --> 01:02:24.155
when when do we see it, like, are like,

781
01:02:24.855 --> 01:02:28.234
Bitcoin should react positively to this to this move. Right?

782
01:02:29.170 --> 01:02:32.550
Yeah. I mean, it's always a question of, like, what are the competing

783
01:02:32.930 --> 01:02:33.750
headwinds and tailwinds.

784
01:02:34.130 --> 01:02:34.630
Yeah.

785
01:02:35.250 --> 01:02:37.670
Please tell me that I'm gonna be rich in a month.

786
01:02:39.010 --> 01:02:41.430
It's always a question of the competing headwinds and tailwinds.

787
01:02:42.775 --> 01:02:45.515
And I think there's still, like, a lot of uncertainty

788
01:02:45.895 --> 01:02:48.395
around some of the topics we discussed a second ago

789
01:02:48.775 --> 01:02:53.275
that will probably put a damper on risk appetite in the near term.

790
01:02:54.055 --> 01:03:07.269
Especially in the year end, it's like you sometimes get if everything's, like, in a Goldilocks zone, you can get, like, a Santa rally kind of at the end of the year. Maybe we'll see that. But But there's gonna be tax selling too. Yeah. There's there's tax selling, and then there's also just, like,

791
01:03:07.650 --> 01:03:10.224
big asset managers often get paid on,

792
01:03:10.625 --> 01:03:16.645
you know, their bonuses are based on, like, what happened through the end of the year or, like, through, say, Jan one to December 31. Right? So,

793
01:03:17.425 --> 01:03:25.520
especially anyone with, like, a good year to protect, like, probably on the margin is not incentivized to take incremental risk in the last few weeks of the

794
01:03:25.820 --> 01:03:26.320
year.

795
01:03:27.100 --> 01:03:31.120
So in general, like, I don't know that I expect some massive, like, pump

796
01:03:31.580 --> 01:03:39.280
in the near term. I have a good college friend finance bro. Done quite well for himself. He's one of the few college friends that listen to me about Bitcoin.

797
01:03:40.305 --> 01:03:43.845
And he strongly believes in the Christmas bonus bump

798
01:03:44.464 --> 01:03:45.045
of all

799
01:03:45.984 --> 01:03:50.305
the lower level finance pros. Like, they get their Christmas bonus, like, January

800
01:03:50.305 --> 01:03:52.645
or something like that, and then they just ape into sets.

801
01:03:54.160 --> 01:03:59.680
Yeah. I mean, I I think there are probably, like I don't know. Maybe there are dozens of people doing that. A lot of,

802
01:04:00.320 --> 01:04:08.180
finance pros are getting their bonuses, and then I literally knew a guy who every bonus season would go buy himself, like, a new $20,000 watch.

803
01:04:08.994 --> 01:04:13.494
So there's a lot of that that will happen too. So the Well, he's been in, he's been in Bitcoin

804
01:04:13.875 --> 01:04:14.375
probably

805
01:04:14.835 --> 01:04:15.895
nine, ten years,

806
01:04:16.675 --> 01:04:21.095
and maybe three or four January's, I've gotten a text like, yo, Christmas bonuses.

807
01:04:21.475 --> 01:04:27.550
Because the other six times, it didn't happen. But Yeah. Those four Januarys, he let he reminded me.

808
01:04:28.250 --> 01:04:39.630
But I think, you know, into the end of the year, don't know that I expect a ton. And it's also, like, we've known for a couple months the, like, quantitative tightening tightening. I I think at least, like, a month that this was gonna end at this meeting.

809
01:04:41.405 --> 01:04:41.905
So,

810
01:04:42.525 --> 01:04:47.745
yeah, I think Well, I don't know. Polymarket was, like, all over the place. It was, like, a little bit interest it's interesting because

811
01:04:48.605 --> 01:04:49.985
you have, like, a pure

812
01:04:50.845 --> 01:04:52.305
you have a more pure,

813
01:04:53.005 --> 01:04:54.145
priced in metric

814
01:04:54.609 --> 01:05:00.710
with the prediction markets, the liquid prediction markets now. Like, of course, like, you can look at assets. You can look at all these,

815
01:05:02.050 --> 01:05:02.550
indirect

816
01:05:03.089 --> 01:05:09.270
metrics to see, like, if a decision is priced in. But, like, if you literally have a betting market that is,

817
01:05:09.954 --> 01:05:11.655
how much will the Fed cut,

818
01:05:12.035 --> 01:05:13.174
or will they cut?

819
01:05:15.635 --> 01:05:18.295
Do you have, like, a more objective measurement?

820
01:05:19.474 --> 01:05:19.974
And

821
01:05:20.275 --> 01:05:21.174
it was, like,

822
01:05:22.599 --> 01:05:25.000
you know, 20 like, a point 25%,

823
01:05:25.000 --> 01:05:28.680
25 bps was, like, 80% or 75%,

824
01:05:28.680 --> 01:05:29.579
then it fell

825
01:05:30.599 --> 01:05:31.579
to no change.

826
01:05:31.960 --> 01:05:41.555
Like, it was neck and neck with no change, and then it popped back up maybe, like, a month ago. Yeah. Well, like, the yeah. The cut I know was, like, hit or miss, but the QT ending, I think, was more,

827
01:05:42.335 --> 01:05:46.434
was more certain because I believe that they just announced they were gonna do that,

828
01:05:46.895 --> 01:05:50.835
or Palace said in the speech, like, a month ago. But in any case, like, the consensus,

829
01:05:51.280 --> 01:05:59.940
like, definitely drifted toward, like, this this being over and probably, like, some sort of, like, QE restart or, like, you know, reserve management restart happening.

830
01:06:00.480 --> 01:06:05.620
Well, I mean, if people thought there was gonna be a no change if the majority opinion thought there's gonna be a no change

831
01:06:06.835 --> 01:06:10.055
on federal funds rate, doesn't that kind of imply that they thought,

832
01:06:11.555 --> 01:06:12.935
QE would not be starting?

833
01:06:14.835 --> 01:06:17.335
Maybe, but they're not necessarily directly related.

834
01:06:18.435 --> 01:06:24.140
They're two totally different, like, transmission mechanisms for By the way, I'm look I'm looking at Poly right now.

835
01:06:24.760 --> 01:06:28.300
Yeah. No. It flipped to no change November 21.

836
01:06:29.480 --> 01:06:31.820
Didn't it? But it flips, like, right back, didn't it?

837
01:06:33.400 --> 01:06:37.835
I I don't know. You're looking at the chart, you tell me, but I don't know. What am I I'm looking at the wrong chart.

838
01:06:38.695 --> 01:06:42.235
What will the Fed January how do I look at the historical charts?

839
01:06:43.015 --> 01:06:43.835
Great radio.

840
01:06:46.215 --> 01:06:48.555
I'm freaks. I'm not gonna edit this out.

841
01:06:48.930 --> 01:06:49.430
I,

842
01:06:50.050 --> 01:06:58.790
I don't know. There's gotta be a way to look at historical Polymarket charts. But, anyway, I'm looking at their January 27 decision Yeah. Which I think will be no change right now.

843
01:07:00.865 --> 01:07:01.365
Yep.

844
01:07:03.025 --> 01:07:05.125
Which actually, like, I probably take the

845
01:07:05.425 --> 01:07:07.605
I take the over on that, but we'll see.

846
01:07:08.225 --> 01:07:10.405
Would you think there'll be another cut?

847
01:07:11.745 --> 01:07:12.725
Yeah. I I

848
01:07:13.105 --> 01:07:15.605
I probably wouldn't I wouldn't bet against it.

849
01:07:16.220 --> 01:07:19.720
I'd probably lean more that way than the other way. Because there's free money. They're you

850
01:07:20.020 --> 01:07:22.260
can print a dollar for 23¢

851
01:07:22.260 --> 01:07:24.180
right now. I'm probably not sure. I should go,

852
01:07:25.540 --> 01:07:31.345
I should put one in the right amount. How big the cut is. You just have to bet no against no change. That's true.

853
01:07:31.805 --> 01:07:38.785
Well, that's what I'll do when we go out here. Ape all ten thirty one's reserves into that single poly market? I think we should really just become a poly market fund.

854
01:07:39.164 --> 01:07:39.964
That might be,

855
01:07:40.365 --> 01:07:41.265
the way to go.

856
01:07:42.285 --> 01:07:43.664
But going into next year,

857
01:07:44.125 --> 01:07:45.345
all that is to say,

858
01:07:47.280 --> 01:07:48.020
I think,

859
01:07:48.480 --> 01:07:50.660
like, I've not really ever seen

860
01:07:51.120 --> 01:07:54.980
fundamentally as bullish a setup as I think what we're looking at right now,

861
01:07:55.760 --> 01:08:03.095
from a risk adjusted perspective. I can't tell you, like, when any of that's gonna play out. And I also can't tell you, like, that there's not gonna be, like, another dump,

862
01:08:04.115 --> 01:08:05.895
ahead of, like, an upward impulse.

863
01:08:06.435 --> 01:08:08.615
I think depends on a lot of things and how

864
01:08:08.915 --> 01:08:11.015
policy goes and how

865
01:08:13.080 --> 01:08:13.580
the

866
01:08:14.360 --> 01:08:14.860
China,

867
01:08:15.640 --> 01:08:20.860
ongoing disputes go and how they sequence different different things that they may or may not do.

868
01:08:21.880 --> 01:08:24.220
And I also don't know, like, if the,

869
01:08:24.935 --> 01:08:32.795
the Fed's latest kind of pivot away from QTE to something more QE ish, whatever we call it. Like, maybe that's not enough, right, for the

870
01:08:33.095 --> 01:08:37.515
reserve tightness that that was out there, that seems to have have caused, like,

871
01:08:38.250 --> 01:08:40.750
some issues with risk appetite and, like, underlying,

872
01:08:41.530 --> 01:08:51.630
treasury plumbing. And so if there if there were to be, like, some issue with that, like, that's probably a down impulse first on, like, everything that's not, like, the dollar and maybe gold.

873
01:08:52.685 --> 01:08:54.705
But, like, over the course of twelve months,

874
01:08:55.645 --> 01:08:56.225
I mean,

875
01:08:57.165 --> 01:08:58.865
Trump is gonna take over the Fed.

876
01:08:59.405 --> 01:09:01.025
I don't really think, like,

877
01:09:01.725 --> 01:09:10.940
he's gonna figure out a way to do it. Like, this week, he was, you know, suggesting that a lot of these a lot of these governors, you know, I've heard many people are saying that they were appointed by AutoPin.

878
01:09:11.560 --> 01:09:15.180
You know, he's big on, like, rolling back anything that was done with AutoPin. So, like,

879
01:09:16.120 --> 01:09:17.260
he's already got,

880
01:09:18.120 --> 01:09:21.100
Myron on as a as a, fed governor.

881
01:09:21.905 --> 01:09:29.365
Bowman and Waller are gonna vote with him, with what he wants. He's gonna very likely replace Powell with Kevin Hassett, who is, like,

882
01:09:29.825 --> 01:09:30.565
the ultimate

883
01:09:30.945 --> 01:09:32.005
Trump yes man,

884
01:09:33.600 --> 01:09:41.300
and that that'll happen early next year. And frankly, if he announces it beforehand, the market's gonna trade it whether like, well before it happened well, before, like, he's actually in the seat.

885
01:09:41.920 --> 01:09:47.860
So you've got that. You've got a a government that's explicitly, you know, one of the most indebted governments in history,

886
01:09:48.925 --> 01:09:49.745
that's The most.

887
01:09:50.125 --> 01:09:50.844
The most.

888
01:09:51.324 --> 01:10:01.265
I don't know if it's actually literally the most indebted government in history, but, certainly, like, it's right up there with within The United States' history. Wait. In absolute terms, we must be. No? No one does it bigger than us.

889
01:10:01.640 --> 01:10:03.020
I'm thinking of, like, debt to

890
01:10:03.400 --> 01:10:06.700
GDP. But in in terms of absolute numbers, like, yeah. Probably. Yeah.

891
01:10:07.240 --> 01:10:15.980
But, like, on a debt to GDP basis numbers that are unfathomable. I guarantee you that Zimbabwe is at, like, you know, four Fair enough. Because they have very low GDP. Yeah. Yeah.

892
01:10:17.065 --> 01:10:18.045
In any case,

893
01:10:18.824 --> 01:10:19.645
you've got

894
01:10:20.905 --> 01:10:22.045
a fading hegemon

895
01:10:22.505 --> 01:10:25.885
that has, you know, a very large debt burden with

896
01:10:26.264 --> 01:10:26.764
growing,

897
01:10:27.945 --> 01:10:32.045
entitlement draws every year from a very powerful boomer class,

898
01:10:32.710 --> 01:10:37.610
who still control most of the wealth and, you know, will vote for their bags.

899
01:10:38.310 --> 01:10:40.410
And that government is trying to

900
01:10:40.950 --> 01:10:42.890
wrest power away from,

901
01:10:43.990 --> 01:10:49.695
an emerging power that has basically taken over its ability to to go to war on a sovereign basis.

902
01:10:50.554 --> 01:10:58.880
And it's, you know, it needs to spend like crazy to facilitate that, to reshore capacity, and that's a matter you know, that's there's price inelasticity

903
01:10:59.340 --> 01:11:02.080
there because that's a matter of national security and

904
01:11:03.659 --> 01:11:11.055
maintaining literally maintaining sovereignty, I think, in their mind. You could argue maybe that's like an overstatement, but I definitely that's how a lot of people are looking at it who are making decisions.

905
01:11:12.075 --> 01:11:23.295
You roll all that together, and I just don't see how you're not looking at a massive monetary and fiscal impulse in the next twelve months. And that's before you even consider midterms, that midterms are coming,

906
01:11:24.200 --> 01:11:25.340
late in '26.

907
01:11:25.640 --> 01:11:27.480
Republicans are down bad right now,

908
01:11:27.800 --> 01:11:33.980
if you look at the results of November local elections. You know, we've got a communist running New York,

909
01:11:34.840 --> 01:11:45.275
and, pretty much Well, he's not running New York yet. Well, okay. So maybe there's still time to figure out some bailout strategy, but He will be running New York. Very likely he's gonna be running New York. Right?

910
01:11:46.375 --> 01:11:48.155
And every you know, a bunch of other localities,

911
01:11:49.975 --> 01:11:52.795
also, you know, swung blue. Like, there was a there was a Georgia,

912
01:11:54.590 --> 01:11:58.770
like, county commissioner election or something. I I can't remember the exact seat, but it was, like,

913
01:11:59.230 --> 01:12:01.969
some seat that hadn't been blue in, like, decades.

914
01:12:02.829 --> 01:12:06.765
There were two, like, open open spots and they both, like, aggressively swung blue.

915
01:12:07.725 --> 01:12:09.085
So they're looking at, like,

916
01:12:10.285 --> 01:12:27.270
not a great political setup into a very important election. And if that doesn't go Trump's way, he's probably a lame duck again, for his last two years. Almost definitely getting impeached again, like, if if they can't. If they can figure out a way to do it, if they can get the votes, like, he will definitely go through, like, 14 impeachment gauntlets again.

917
01:12:28.130 --> 01:12:31.750
And so I think their only response to that or one of their big responses to that

918
01:12:32.115 --> 01:12:33.415
is gonna have to be,

919
01:12:34.115 --> 01:12:37.815
you know, in in so many words, like, handouts. Right? They're gonna have to

920
01:12:38.275 --> 01:12:41.895
politically bribe the right classes of voters to,

921
01:12:43.155 --> 01:12:46.455
whether that's, like, you know, subsidizing certain industries or,

922
01:12:47.030 --> 01:12:54.490
you know, making sure that certain classes of voters, like, get access to different jobs or different, you know, stimulus programs, whatever.

923
01:12:54.870 --> 01:13:03.005
They're gonna have to make enough people happy to have a shot at turning the tide here, on the midterms. So I look at all of these things,

924
01:13:03.305 --> 01:13:05.565
and I look at there only being 21,000,000 Bitcoin,

925
01:13:05.865 --> 01:13:08.925
and I look at there being a massive ETF pipe for,

926
01:13:10.185 --> 01:13:11.085
bigger institutions

927
01:13:11.545 --> 01:13:13.245
and very wealthy people

928
01:13:14.210 --> 01:13:14.690
and,

929
01:13:15.170 --> 01:13:22.070
even sovereign wealth funds that are now buying I don't know why they're buying IBIT instead of just, like, self custody Bitcoin, but but indeed they're doing that.

930
01:13:22.850 --> 01:13:24.710
Got college endowments like Harvard,

931
01:13:25.170 --> 01:13:25.670
taking,

932
01:13:26.145 --> 01:13:31.264
I bet it's now their largest disclosed position. They don't disclose, like, most of their portfolio, but,

933
01:13:31.985 --> 01:13:35.605
massive sea change there. I look at all these things and I'm just, like,

934
01:13:36.224 --> 01:13:39.125
all that's hitting the wall of only 21,000,000 Bitcoin.

935
01:13:39.905 --> 01:13:41.364
And the president

936
01:13:41.910 --> 01:13:50.090
is has his own Bitcoin bags. The president and his family have, like, you know, billions of dollars directly and indirectly in Bitcoin bags.

937
01:13:51.190 --> 01:13:51.690
And,

938
01:13:52.870 --> 01:13:54.650
certainly, he's not known for

939
01:13:55.065 --> 01:13:58.685
necessarily being, totally scrupulous about self dealing transactions.

940
01:13:59.465 --> 01:13:59.965
And

941
01:14:01.065 --> 01:14:12.850
we're transitioning to a world where, like, we need some sort of probably, if if they're serious about what they wanna do with the global trade order, there's going to be, a necessarily massive bid for,

942
01:14:14.270 --> 01:14:24.530
neutral reserve assets that are outside money, because you gotta go out of if treasuries are not gonna be it anymore, which they can't be if we want to make make our own stuff again in mass,

943
01:14:25.684 --> 01:14:28.905
All that capital is gonna have to rotate somewhere. And the only

944
01:14:29.445 --> 01:14:35.625
real place it can go that's big enough right now is gold. But on the margin, as we kinda referenced a second ago,

945
01:14:36.005 --> 01:14:38.970
some of it's gonna start flowing to Bitcoin too in different spots.

946
01:14:39.930 --> 01:14:41.870
And so I look at all that and I'm like,

947
01:14:42.490 --> 01:14:43.630
that's gotta be

948
01:14:44.330 --> 01:14:53.310
the most giga bullish, best risk adjusted setup that Bitcoin has ever seen, especially when you consider, at least for the moment, the regulatory backdrop is

949
01:14:53.704 --> 01:14:58.284
mostly better. There are definitely things that we can talk about that still need to change. But

950
01:14:58.824 --> 01:15:00.125
from just a price perspective,

951
01:15:00.585 --> 01:15:05.565
that's kinda my outlook. Like, I can't tell you where it's gonna go. I can't tell you when it's gonna go there.

952
01:15:07.410 --> 01:15:12.630
But '26 to me looks like it is set up to be extremely positive,

953
01:15:13.330 --> 01:15:17.190
for Bitcoin. Absent absent war breaking out and China taking Taiwan and,

954
01:15:17.970 --> 01:15:19.590
all the Asterisk. Asterisk. Asterisk.

955
01:15:20.935 --> 01:15:24.235
So very long winded, mandibles in the Bitcoin standard,

956
01:15:24.775 --> 01:15:27.035
basically, answer. By the way, I found,

957
01:15:28.855 --> 01:15:29.995
I found the December

958
01:15:30.455 --> 01:15:31.195
Poly Market,

959
01:15:31.495 --> 01:15:36.699
and it was around the same time. It was November.

960
01:15:36.699 --> 01:15:38.699
It flipped to 75%

961
01:15:38.699 --> 01:15:40.000
were saying no change.

962
01:15:40.940 --> 01:15:44.380
And it's a pretty big volume market. This was a $400,000,000

963
01:15:44.380 --> 01:15:44.880
market.

964
01:15:46.795 --> 01:15:50.655
And that was twenty days ago, which just shows, I mean, just shows how, like,

965
01:15:51.115 --> 01:15:53.855
what interesting times we live in. That twenty days before,

966
01:15:55.355 --> 01:15:57.375
the tea leaves were saying no change

967
01:15:57.755 --> 01:16:02.015
ever so briefly. I think it was, like, a specific Powell comment that was mentioned.

968
01:16:03.250 --> 01:16:07.030
The gold dynamic is interesting. Right? Because, like, from a sovereign perspective,

969
01:16:08.210 --> 01:16:10.310
yes, it's Lindy. It's been around forever,

970
01:16:10.930 --> 01:16:11.430
basically,

971
01:16:12.370 --> 01:16:21.825
and it's much easier to allocate to than Bitcoin. But from the individual point of view, it's much more difficult to allocate to than Bitcoin. Like, I was talking about this on a rabbit hole recap.

972
01:16:23.965 --> 01:16:26.705
Like, I don't even know how someone would go about,

973
01:16:27.085 --> 01:16:27.825
you know,

974
01:16:30.630 --> 01:16:34.410
if if you wanted to put, like, a million dollars into physical gold.

975
01:16:35.030 --> 01:16:40.470
The you're I think if my math is my basic math is, like, that's 250

976
01:16:40.470 --> 01:16:41.290
gold bars

977
01:16:41.975 --> 01:16:44.795
you'd have to go out and buy and not be counterfeit.

978
01:16:45.655 --> 01:16:51.515
Like, that's pretty final too. Right? Like Yeah. That's a pretty insane thing to explain to your wife. It's just like

979
01:16:53.015 --> 01:16:54.635
and do they arrive in the mail?

980
01:16:55.940 --> 01:17:05.239
Would you go would you go to a physical location to buy them? It's been a while since I bought 250 gold bars, so I can't remember the exact process that I had to go through. But,

981
01:17:06.900 --> 01:17:08.840
and then well, the other thing too is, like,

982
01:17:10.075 --> 01:17:12.335
do you want 250 gold bars in your house?

983
01:17:12.955 --> 01:17:14.175
Right? No.

984
01:17:14.475 --> 01:17:15.215
Probably not.

985
01:17:15.515 --> 01:17:18.175
So you've gotta vault them somewhere,

986
01:17:18.715 --> 01:17:19.215
and

987
01:17:20.315 --> 01:17:24.975
they can't unlike unlike Bitcoin, which where ownership can be split across a multisig quorum

988
01:17:25.320 --> 01:17:25.820
and,

989
01:17:26.600 --> 01:17:28.780
you know, you don't have to trust any one,

990
01:17:29.720 --> 01:17:33.580
institution or any one physical location to be to not be compromised,

991
01:17:34.520 --> 01:17:41.665
to maintain ownership for your Bitcoin. The gold can only be in one place. And, like, you're probably not gonna have in your house of of any, like, mean of quantity. Right?

992
01:17:42.285 --> 01:17:49.805
So you're probably gonna put it in some sort of, like, you could put it in, you know, safe deposit box in bank. You can put it at, like, a You're not gonna put $250

993
01:17:49.805 --> 01:18:02.929
of gold in the safe deposit box. You're gonna put it in, like, a real vault. Right? Which Yeah. Or you're just gonna buy the ETF, which is probably Yeah. Most likely what you're really gonna do is buy the ETF. Right? But if you wanted to have some sort of, like, comparably sovereign experience with it,

994
01:18:03.790 --> 01:18:09.455
your your really only option is to make yourself, like, a sitting duck for $61.00 2 and, like,

995
01:18:10.074 --> 01:18:19.290
don't tell me that if gold is becoming systemically important again and it's getting reintroduced into the monetary system, like, don't tell me that they're not just gonna do that again. Right? Like,

996
01:18:20.170 --> 01:18:23.070
and that's that's a risk for, like, the GLD ETF too.

997
01:18:24.170 --> 01:18:27.790
You know, easily what could happen, like, one Friday night is,

998
01:18:28.730 --> 01:18:32.270
or on one Sunday night is some announcement is made about a gold revaluation,

999
01:18:33.935 --> 01:18:35.315
for The US. And,

1000
01:18:36.095 --> 01:18:36.835
they tell,

1001
01:18:37.215 --> 01:18:46.980
on Monday morning, you wake up with a note that you've been stopped out of your g d GLD ETF trade for the the Friday closing value. Right? So you get paid out in cash, you know, what it was,

1002
01:18:47.760 --> 01:18:54.980
the the minute before the announcement was made, but you don't really get to participate in that upside. And I think if you ever see You think that's actually realistic?

1003
01:18:55.920 --> 01:18:56.420
Yeah.

1004
01:18:56.880 --> 01:18:57.699
For sure.

1005
01:18:58.255 --> 01:19:04.035
I mean, look, like, there there are pros and cons to doing that, and you think about, like, what constituencies you piss off and how,

1006
01:19:05.055 --> 01:19:08.435
valuable it might or might not be to the government to do that. But,

1007
01:19:09.855 --> 01:19:14.690
is is it realistic in terms of could they do it? Like, yeah. How does How does this play into, like

1008
01:19:15.710 --> 01:19:21.809
what what about this isn't there a similar risk for, like, Bitcoin stocks and iBit and Yeah. MicroStrategy?

1009
01:19:22.269 --> 01:19:23.489
For sure. Yeah.

1010
01:19:25.054 --> 01:19:35.235
I mean, the exact same thing could happen with either. Right? Like, if Sunday night, Besson says, like, we're effectively setting a floor price of Bitcoin of, like, you know, a million dollars or something.

1011
01:19:35.855 --> 01:19:38.275
Nice. Arthur Hayes has a Arthur Hayes has a great,

1012
01:19:39.054 --> 01:19:41.580
fan fiction piece from earlier this year about,

1013
01:19:42.140 --> 01:19:49.020
why they would do that, how they could do it. And I think his target was Besson should effectively set up floor price at 1,800,000.0,

1014
01:19:49.180 --> 01:19:49.840
per Bitcoin.

1015
01:19:50.540 --> 01:19:56.565
So I'm holding out for that. I I think it's gonna go. Why 1.8? That's so I can't remember. He he has math that gets him there.

1016
01:19:57.745 --> 01:20:02.165
But, yeah, go go read it. It's from, like, February. It's it's a very fun read if you want some Hobium.

1017
01:20:02.705 --> 01:20:07.445
But if that ever happened, like, at, you know, at the same time, like, yeah, they could absolutely just, like, cash you out at,

1018
01:20:08.304 --> 01:20:08.804
the

1019
01:20:09.320 --> 01:20:13.340
the value of your your iBit holdings, you know, before the announcement was made.

1020
01:20:13.880 --> 01:20:19.800
And so all that just speaks again to, like yeah. There's, like, counterparty risk is still a thing. Like, it ain't going away.

1021
01:20:20.520 --> 01:20:21.020
So

1022
01:20:21.555 --> 01:20:28.675
consider that carefully as you make your allocations. And I think that definitely applies to the central banks and sovereign wealth funds that are,

1023
01:20:28.995 --> 01:20:31.094
stacking iBit instead of stacking Bitcoin.

1024
01:20:31.555 --> 01:20:37.860
Yeah. I mean, it's a fascinating thing to think about because, like, I'm pretty sure mandibles and a Bitcoin standard is

1025
01:20:38.320 --> 01:20:40.579
I mean, freaks now. I'm a broken record.

1026
01:20:42.800 --> 01:20:45.139
Is I think what is playing out here.

1027
01:20:48.045 --> 01:20:49.985
But that's some crazy waves.

1028
01:20:50.925 --> 01:20:55.025
Not necessarily to trade through, but, like, as, like, a leader of a family,

1029
01:20:56.045 --> 01:20:58.945
you know, whatever growing family, it's like, how do you

1030
01:21:00.125 --> 01:21:00.625
properly

1031
01:21:01.085 --> 01:21:02.145
prepare for that?

1032
01:21:03.570 --> 01:21:10.790
And I've come to the solution, like, real skills, building local community, and staying humble in Stacking SaaS, but it feels too simple.

1033
01:21:13.730 --> 01:21:16.390
But, yeah, it's pretty crazy. I don't know.

1034
01:21:17.195 --> 01:21:21.775
I mean, it's, like, it's simple but not easy. Right? Yeah. That's the that's the thing.

1035
01:21:23.755 --> 01:21:24.875
But, yeah, I don't know.

1036
01:21:26.315 --> 01:21:30.175
I still I I'm not my base case is not USD hyperinflation.

1037
01:21:32.235 --> 01:21:35.590
So I don't know if we'll get full on mandibles, but I definitely think

1038
01:21:36.370 --> 01:21:38.150
oh, by the way, the key to all this happening,

1039
01:21:38.770 --> 01:21:43.990
that I was describing for '26 is, like, I think we get we do get inflation. I think

1040
01:21:44.370 --> 01:21:46.710
they have to be okay with it going higher.

1041
01:21:47.015 --> 01:21:51.195
I think you can make that freeze yeah. Go on. Well, I was just gonna say, I think you can make that work politically

1042
01:21:51.495 --> 01:21:53.595
if wages are keeping up and ideally,

1043
01:21:54.695 --> 01:21:55.195
exceeding,

1044
01:21:55.815 --> 01:21:56.955
the rate of How would

1045
01:21:57.655 --> 01:21:58.315
that happen?

1046
01:21:58.855 --> 01:21:59.355
Well,

1047
01:22:00.170 --> 01:22:07.469
you might you might notice that, Trump has very much foregrounded the role of, ICE and border enforcement in his administration.

1048
01:22:08.010 --> 01:22:10.270
Right? You might notice that he,

1049
01:22:10.969 --> 01:22:18.095
or at least many people in his camp have been kind of aggressively going after the h one b program and the whatever 600,000

1050
01:22:18.095 --> 01:22:23.155
Chinese students that need to be admitted or not be admitted to universities in The US. Like,

1051
01:22:23.535 --> 01:22:29.590
I mean, there's definitely a world where I think there's been significant I think anyone would say there's been significant pressure

1052
01:22:29.970 --> 01:22:31.030
from a wage perspective

1053
01:22:31.650 --> 01:22:34.310
on labor in the last twenty years.

1054
01:22:35.650 --> 01:22:39.350
The last twenty five years, right, since China entered the WTO and since kinda now.

1055
01:22:40.130 --> 01:22:43.055
There's definitely trade stuff. Yeah. Right.

1056
01:22:43.594 --> 01:22:47.455
And increasingly, even on white collar stuff too, like, you see there's a lot of,

1057
01:22:49.195 --> 01:22:53.935
you know, there are a lot of tech workers and a lot of kinda, like, mid level management workers,

1058
01:22:54.475 --> 01:22:56.960
in the last, like, ten, fifteen years that,

1059
01:22:57.420 --> 01:23:04.160
have come from countries outside The US. And, like, this isn't, they took our jobs, like, rant, but just, like, factually,

1060
01:23:04.780 --> 01:23:10.215
labor has gotten more competitive in The US and kind of intentionally so. Right? And I think a lot of

1061
01:23:10.614 --> 01:23:17.915
presidents and politicians up to up till now have, like, kind of even explicitly said, like, yeah. That's a good thing. And it's good for corporate margins, and it's good for, like,

1062
01:23:18.375 --> 01:23:19.915
it's good for inflation pressure.

1063
01:23:20.455 --> 01:23:22.395
It's good for, the bond market.

1064
01:23:23.574 --> 01:23:33.560
But I think the if if you're gonna say, we're pretty much gonna cap yields and the bond market's gonna take a bath and the Fed's gonna get on sides and we're gonna shift all the issuance to the front end and,

1065
01:23:34.260 --> 01:23:37.400
we're gonna do financial repression of the bond market and

1066
01:23:37.895 --> 01:23:39.255
then accept the resulting,

1067
01:23:40.215 --> 01:23:41.835
price inflation that that causes,

1068
01:23:42.455 --> 01:23:45.995
I think you also then have the leeway to say, if I don't care about

1069
01:23:46.295 --> 01:23:49.355
where rates go, if I don't care about the bond vigilantes or whatever,

1070
01:23:50.460 --> 01:23:50.960
then

1071
01:23:51.580 --> 01:23:55.040
I, then I can actually let, wages run. Right?

1072
01:23:55.740 --> 01:23:57.760
I can let this political base

1073
01:23:58.140 --> 01:23:58.640
potentially,

1074
01:23:59.820 --> 01:24:00.640
be the beneficiary

1075
01:24:01.100 --> 01:24:01.340
of,

1076
01:24:02.925 --> 01:24:07.025
we just kicked out 50,000,000 people or whatever. And also we're trying to build, like,

1077
01:24:07.485 --> 01:24:08.145
you know,

1078
01:24:09.565 --> 01:24:25.260
ASI with, these massive Manhattan sized data centers all over all over the country, and we're trying to bring back manufacturing and our, defense supply chains to The US. So I can, like, do all that and spend all that and run it hot and also give the benefit of that to, like, my political base,

1079
01:24:26.040 --> 01:24:28.940
and let them benefit from it because I'm basically sending

1080
01:24:29.240 --> 01:24:31.020
their foreign labor competition home.

1081
01:24:32.215 --> 01:24:37.595
I think you could kinda do it that way. Whether that would on net be, like, good for society,

1082
01:24:38.375 --> 01:24:41.915
or long term sustainable, I think that's much more of an open question.

1083
01:24:43.095 --> 01:24:52.409
But I based on everything I'm seeing, like, I kinda think that's, like I kinda think they're telling you the playbook. Whether you think it'll work or not, like, different question again, but, like,

1084
01:24:53.190 --> 01:24:54.730
that world where that's happening,

1085
01:24:55.429 --> 01:24:58.010
again, feels, like, pretty directionally

1086
01:24:58.310 --> 01:24:59.210
bullish for

1087
01:24:59.575 --> 01:25:00.395
scarce assets.

1088
01:25:03.095 --> 01:25:09.115
Yeah. I mean, it there's a weird dynamic because it's a weird dynamic because, like, basically, like, in a hyperinflationary

1089
01:25:09.575 --> 01:25:11.195
environment, we crash up,

1090
01:25:12.830 --> 01:25:14.530
Where I think that's also why

1091
01:25:16.190 --> 01:25:19.950
markets are being weird right now is because just intrinsically people think you

1092
01:25:21.230 --> 01:25:24.210
of course, the crash should go down, but the money's broken.

1093
01:25:25.550 --> 01:25:26.050
So,

1094
01:25:28.275 --> 01:25:31.095
people are concerned about where we stand right now,

1095
01:25:31.715 --> 01:25:33.255
but, really, the trade is

1096
01:25:34.115 --> 01:25:38.455
to is is to go long, which is a weird it's a weird dichotomy.

1097
01:25:39.315 --> 01:25:41.495
And then, obviously, wages are just

1098
01:25:42.310 --> 01:25:48.810
not indexed to inflation, and it's really hard if real inflation is 12%, 13%, 14% is hard to go to your boss

1099
01:25:49.350 --> 01:25:50.010
and be like,

1100
01:25:50.949 --> 01:25:54.310
yo, bro. Like, I every year, like, give me a 15%

1101
01:25:54.310 --> 01:25:55.770
pay increase. It sounds

1102
01:25:56.935 --> 01:25:57.435
insane.

1103
01:25:59.095 --> 01:25:59.915
So it's

1104
01:26:00.455 --> 01:26:02.635
it's an it's a weird dynamic. So,

1105
01:26:03.575 --> 01:26:06.395
I mean, with all that set, we've been going for a while here.

1106
01:26:09.060 --> 01:26:09.800
I got

1107
01:26:10.260 --> 01:26:13.640
two two more things I wanna hit on. The first thing is,

1108
01:26:17.380 --> 01:26:18.680
is the bottom in

1109
01:26:19.140 --> 01:26:19.880
on Bitcoin?

1110
01:26:20.980 --> 01:26:22.200
Is the bottom in?

1111
01:26:22.645 --> 01:26:26.585
Yeah. Do we go low what do we hit? Like, 81 k? I really wanna say yes.

1112
01:26:27.285 --> 01:26:33.465
Okay. I really wanna say yes. I really wanna say yes. Quarterly update, we'll just you can just own it if you're wrong. It's fine.

1113
01:26:35.445 --> 01:26:37.785
This time next year, what's the price of Bitcoin?

1114
01:26:38.930 --> 01:26:43.810
And before John answers, I just wanna let the freaks know that ten thirty one,

1115
01:26:44.770 --> 01:26:48.150
are very proud to invest in the best Bitcoin businesses in the world.

1116
01:26:50.225 --> 01:26:55.205
I'm, incredibly bullish and optimistic on, the founders we have chosen to back

1117
01:26:55.585 --> 01:26:56.485
through the years.

1118
01:26:57.025 --> 01:27:04.005
We do have a portfolio retreat that's only the only the founders of the companies we've invested in, are invited to every October.

1119
01:27:04.490 --> 01:27:11.390
And we did the same thought process. After a few drinks, we did the same thought process where we asked them to predict a year out in the future.

1120
01:27:12.410 --> 01:27:15.710
And so far, they've been incredibly wrong to the upside.

1121
01:27:17.610 --> 01:27:20.270
It was we were probably trading what was

1122
01:27:20.885 --> 01:27:22.665
what was the price during bear claw?

1123
01:27:23.845 --> 01:27:26.105
It would have been, like, 60 k?

1124
01:27:27.205 --> 01:27:33.445
No. This year? No. Oh oh, I mean, yeah, this year. Last year when we first made the predictions This year, we were at, like, a 120

1125
01:27:33.445 --> 01:27:43.960
k, and we asked people to make a year out prediction. And, like, the lowest one maybe there was one outlier that was, like, a 100 k or 90 k or something, but everyone else is in, like,

1126
01:27:45.955 --> 01:27:46.835
400,

1127
01:27:46.835 --> 01:27:49.495
500 k, 600 The the top the top prediction,

1128
01:27:50.035 --> 01:27:54.135
that came out of it, I won't say who it was because Chatham House rules Yeah. Don't say who it was.

1129
01:27:55.554 --> 01:27:56.835
But it was 800,000,

1130
01:27:57.074 --> 01:28:01.320
dollars. So Yeah. I'm not gonna go that high. For next year? Yeah.

1131
01:28:02.199 --> 01:28:09.400
I was my my long pause was me trying to think about how I can best frame this to minimize the chance of being wrong and being able to say that,

1132
01:28:10.199 --> 01:28:12.940
being able to claim some kind of victory if it if it doesn't work out.

1133
01:28:13.719 --> 01:28:16.619
But the way that I phrased it for the bear claw prediction

1134
01:28:17.585 --> 01:28:18.085
was

1135
01:28:18.784 --> 01:28:19.844
effectively, like,

1136
01:28:20.784 --> 01:28:22.645
what is the top that we hit

1137
01:28:23.185 --> 01:28:35.080
before we see any kind of, like, 50% drawdown? Because I think that's definitely still possible depending on, like, the pace of the move. I think we're done with the days of, like, 80% draws.

1138
01:28:36.420 --> 01:28:38.520
But yeah. Knock on wood. I know.

1139
01:28:38.900 --> 01:28:40.199
Monkey's paw curls again.

1140
01:28:41.780 --> 01:28:50.675
But, I definitely think, you know, if if we have a parabolic move, but I definitely think will be possible in the environment I'm describing, you could still see a 50% draw. So

1141
01:28:51.455 --> 01:28:53.075
to me, the top

1142
01:28:53.935 --> 01:28:56.035
number that we hit before that happens,

1143
01:28:57.535 --> 01:29:06.929
I'm gonna go I'm gonna go with four twenty. That's what I said at Bear Claw. I'm gonna say it now. Now I don't know Yeah. That was my next question. What'd you said at Bear Claw? Do you know what I said at Bear Claw?

1144
01:29:08.349 --> 01:29:11.730
I think you were, like, I think you were in the three hundreds. I think you were, like, three fifty.

1145
01:29:13.065 --> 01:29:14.445
I was reasonably conservative.

1146
01:29:14.825 --> 01:29:33.750
Yeah. That's like the down the middle of the fairway answer that I think most people like, the the Asian woman golfer just, like Yeah. Hitting par all the time. The modal answer, if you ask most Bitcoiners, I think right now, they're like, I'd be happy with, like, a $3.50 k kinda, like, top, quote, unquote Dude, I'd be a I'd be a static $3.50. Yeah.

1147
01:29:34.770 --> 01:29:39.075
I went higher than that because I wanted to express more bullishness, but not so much bullishness that,

1148
01:29:39.955 --> 01:29:50.775
I lose all credibility if I even have any at this So you did a little 20% boost on it. Yeah. Exactly. So Okay. Well, I'm glad we got that out there so we can hold you on the record.

1149
01:29:51.555 --> 01:29:54.535
To the freaks who are listening, stay humble on StackSites. Don't

1150
01:29:55.929 --> 01:29:57.869
don't trade on that belief.

1151
01:29:59.130 --> 01:30:00.829
No one has any fucking idea.

1152
01:30:01.770 --> 01:30:04.969
And also don't trade on the belief that the bottom isn't. I'm not,

1153
01:30:06.250 --> 01:30:13.355
I'm not so confident on that. Hopefully, it is. Hopefully, you can tell by my answer that I'm also, like, 51% confident at most.

1154
01:30:14.135 --> 01:30:16.475
Yeah. I mean, it just didn't feel sad enough,

1155
01:30:17.015 --> 01:30:18.955
but I don't know. Maybe I'm just

1156
01:30:21.030 --> 01:30:22.170
bruised old man.

1157
01:30:22.470 --> 01:30:24.650
And at this point, I just don't feel things,

1158
01:30:25.270 --> 01:30:27.110
at least on Bitcoin price stuff.

1159
01:30:29.510 --> 01:30:35.930
The last question I have is where did the big narrative this year has been stablecoins. Where does stablecoins fall into all of this?

1160
01:30:36.975 --> 01:30:41.955
Or Yeah. I hate calling them stablecoins. USD tokens. USD tokens is it's it's better.

1161
01:30:43.455 --> 01:30:47.875
There's, like, a massive amount we could say about this, and it's probably even worth its own,

1162
01:30:48.175 --> 01:30:50.255
its own show, at some point. But,

1163
01:30:52.020 --> 01:30:56.280
I would say I definitely think stable as it relates to the themes we're talking about here,

1164
01:30:57.059 --> 01:31:00.679
I think that USD tokens will continue to proliferate.

1165
01:31:01.940 --> 01:31:04.440
Whether they continue to leverage

1166
01:31:04.820 --> 01:31:06.280
so called public blockchains

1167
01:31:07.075 --> 01:31:09.815
I think a totally different question that I take the under on.

1168
01:31:10.755 --> 01:31:11.255
Interesting.

1169
01:31:12.195 --> 01:31:21.095
But but ultimately, I think the US government definitely has an interest in finding any marginal buyer that it can for incremental debt issuance. They basically said as much.

1170
01:31:21.770 --> 01:31:25.870
The treasury's put out research papers on how stable coins can, you know, be the,

1171
01:31:26.890 --> 01:31:28.250
the new valve for,

1172
01:31:29.050 --> 01:31:29.950
t bill uptake.

1173
01:31:30.330 --> 01:31:36.345
I think, like, the outside on the outside ran into the range, like, Besson has said, it could be, you know, as much as, like, $3,000,000,000,000

1174
01:31:36.345 --> 01:31:38.665
of incremental new buying through,

1175
01:31:39.065 --> 01:31:40.845
Stablecoin proliferation around the world.

1176
01:31:42.185 --> 01:31:47.245
And I think there's maybe some truth to that, and certainly it's not gonna hurt, and certainly, like,

1177
01:31:47.820 --> 01:31:52.880
further encouraging that will, you know, further entrench, like, USD hegemony and,

1178
01:31:54.220 --> 01:31:58.720
you know, you you want more people reliant on the dollar, not less. Right?

1179
01:31:59.755 --> 01:32:00.255
So,

1180
01:32:00.955 --> 01:32:08.975
I I think all those themes pointed into, like, the like, this time next year, like, there will be more stable coins in circulation than there are right now.

1181
01:32:10.075 --> 01:32:20.260
I'm I I question to some extent outside of even just, like, the, you know, long term fate of stablecoins and what they look like or what USD tokens, like, what the long term,

1182
01:32:20.880 --> 01:32:22.260
incarnation of that is.

1183
01:32:23.120 --> 01:32:29.940
To some degree, I, like, I question the consensus narrative that seems to have just been, like, completely accepted, like, hook line and sinker by

1184
01:32:30.375 --> 01:32:30.875
everyone

1185
01:32:31.414 --> 01:32:35.034
that, you know, are the salvation of the treasury market is in, like,

1186
01:32:36.054 --> 01:32:38.394
spreading more stable coins to, like,

1187
01:32:38.695 --> 01:32:50.650
you know, countries that are, like, fifth percentile in GDP. Like Like Nigerian taxi drivers saving treasury markets. Yeah. I mean, like, it's and and don't get me wrong, like, you know, I completely get the utility in that situation,

1188
01:32:51.670 --> 01:33:00.145
and, you know, what it does for a person in the situation. But, like, also by the nature of the the market that you're addressing there, like, you know, that's not where, like,

1189
01:33:00.685 --> 01:33:02.125
there ain't $3,000,000,000,000

1190
01:33:02.125 --> 01:33:06.465
of, like, excess value sitting in, like, Sub Saharan Africa that's, like, just

1191
01:33:06.925 --> 01:33:09.085
antsy to go buy, like, stable coins,

1192
01:33:09.805 --> 01:33:11.105
or, you know, in in,

1193
01:33:12.070 --> 01:33:14.650
impoverished countries in Southeast Asia or whatever. Right? Like,

1194
01:33:15.830 --> 01:33:16.330
so,

1195
01:33:17.190 --> 01:33:26.970
you know, there are, like, you could say wealthier European countries like the EU, maybe, like, they would try to switch to some degree to into, USD tokens.

1196
01:33:27.665 --> 01:33:29.765
I I agree with the thesis that on the margin

1197
01:33:30.145 --> 01:33:39.365
among fiat currencies, like, if you gave anyone an AB test, would they rather use the dollar or their local currency? Yeah. They'd rather use the dollar. I guess I just question the magnitude

1198
01:33:39.745 --> 01:33:39.985
of,

1199
01:33:41.250 --> 01:33:43.989
loose change that's out there in kind of the broader

1200
01:33:44.369 --> 01:33:46.309
non g seven world to

1201
01:33:46.690 --> 01:33:48.389
flow into these things and

1202
01:33:48.690 --> 01:33:58.295
be effectively effectively provide, like, the the asset swap that's necessary to absorb all the treasury issuance that we're gonna need over the next few years. So,

1203
01:33:59.795 --> 01:34:02.375
you know, I I think, and if you look at the pace

1204
01:34:03.155 --> 01:34:03.655
of,

1205
01:34:04.675 --> 01:34:05.735
stablecoin growth,

1206
01:34:06.035 --> 01:34:07.815
like, to get to,

1207
01:34:08.275 --> 01:34:13.910
I don't have the math off the top of my head, but, like, to get to over the next couple years, like, the target that this, like, $3,000,000,000,000

1208
01:34:13.910 --> 01:34:16.170
target that Dustin and Myron have thrown out,

1209
01:34:17.030 --> 01:34:19.290
you know, we need a a dramatic acceleration,

1210
01:34:19.989 --> 01:34:23.929
from where it's been this year to kinda bridge to that to that number,

1211
01:34:24.545 --> 01:34:45.930
to have, like, incremental debt to absorb the incremental debt issuance to that degree. So I think it's a it's a bit of a lazy narrative in my mind that, like, the government loves stable coins and stable coins are gonna be the next, like, buyer of all this issuance. Like, I I don't really know if there's, like, enough capacity to, like, make that work. But I do think USD tokens in some form will continue to to grow and proliferate.

1212
01:34:48.790 --> 01:34:50.970
Well, so I have the stats in front of me.

1213
01:34:51.945 --> 01:34:55.804
I mean, Tether is very much the king of USD tokens.

1214
01:34:56.665 --> 01:34:58.844
I think everyone else is kinda negligible,

1215
01:35:00.344 --> 01:35:02.045
you know, Circle being the

1216
01:35:02.505 --> 01:35:04.605
the the biggest quote, unquote competitor.

1217
01:35:04.985 --> 01:35:08.740
And they were kind of banking on getting Tethr banned

1218
01:35:09.440 --> 01:35:13.380
or even worse than banned, you know, like cruise missile, I always would say.

1219
01:35:14.160 --> 01:35:16.420
And it looks like that ship has sailed considering

1220
01:35:17.680 --> 01:35:22.305
how embedded Tethr has gotten with, the powers that be in The US.

1221
01:35:22.845 --> 01:35:29.425
You know, Howard Lutnick is holding a bunch of their treasuries while his sons are because he's not involved in the day to day at Canter,

1222
01:35:31.965 --> 01:35:32.465
allegedly.

1223
01:35:33.390 --> 01:35:33.890
But,

1224
01:35:34.830 --> 01:35:40.370
and Howard's in the White House. So, like, I mean, Tether's, like, pretty much here to stay. They're the they're the juggernaut.

1225
01:35:40.910 --> 01:35:43.010
A stat for you, a year ago,

1226
01:35:43.630 --> 01:35:46.510
Tether in circulation was a $140,000,000,000,

1227
01:35:46.510 --> 01:35:57.215
and it's basically backed one to one with treasury. So you can kinda think of it as treasury demand. I think this is a interesting way I think this is a correct way of thinking about it. And now it's at a 186,000,000,000.

1228
01:35:57.215 --> 01:35:58.435
So that was an incremental

1229
01:35:59.775 --> 01:36:01.554
40,000,000,000 in treasury demand.

1230
01:36:01.855 --> 01:36:03.475
Yep. Does that make sense?

1231
01:36:03.930 --> 01:36:09.469
Yeah. I think that's basically right. Assuming, like, each one of those is, like, totally, like, incremental, like, dollar for dollar,

1232
01:36:10.090 --> 01:36:12.830
new treasury demand. So then I have a question for you

1233
01:36:13.449 --> 01:36:16.030
that I just thought of while I was on CoinMarketCap

1234
01:36:16.410 --> 01:36:17.630
looking up these stats,

1235
01:36:18.325 --> 01:36:20.505
a site that I do not go to very often,

1236
01:36:20.965 --> 01:36:23.705
but I don't know where else I would check a TetherMarketCap.

1237
01:36:26.965 --> 01:36:29.945
Tether Gold is relatively new to the picture.

1238
01:36:31.140 --> 01:36:31.640
So

1239
01:36:33.620 --> 01:36:34.120
USD

1240
01:36:34.580 --> 01:36:40.420
I mean, you don't have to actually have an answer for me because I'm just kinda Tether USD is at a 186,000,000,000

1241
01:36:40.420 --> 01:36:40.920
circulating,

1242
01:36:43.155 --> 01:36:45.395
and Tether Gold is at 1,600,000,000.0.

1243
01:36:45.395 --> 01:36:47.094
So it's about a 100 x

1244
01:36:47.715 --> 01:36:48.215
more

1245
01:36:49.074 --> 01:36:49.574
USDT

1246
01:36:50.114 --> 01:36:51.175
measured in dollars,

1247
01:36:52.275 --> 01:36:52.775
than

1248
01:36:53.474 --> 01:36:55.094
what are they called? Tether Gold?

1249
01:36:56.310 --> 01:36:58.250
X a u t. U t. Yeah.

1250
01:36:58.790 --> 01:36:59.610
Do you think

1251
01:37:00.150 --> 01:37:06.730
and and this is interesting because people don't think about it, I think, when they call it stable coins. But if you think about USD tokens versus gold tokens,

1252
01:37:09.685 --> 01:37:21.305
is there, like, a dark horse? I mean, this is, like, nothing you can actually trade, but, if if they let Tether into the which it seems like, you know, Tether is, like it's very much kinda like a Trojan horse thing. Right? They're obviously Bitcoiners.

1253
01:37:21.840 --> 01:37:26.179
They hold a lot of gold on balance sheet too. They hold a lot of Bitcoin on balance sheet and a lot of gold.

1254
01:37:29.040 --> 01:37:38.055
Maybe the Nigerian cab driver switches to the proverbial Nigerian cab driver. Maybe he switches to Tether Gold. Maybe that's the real stable coin all along.

1255
01:37:38.755 --> 01:37:41.335
Well, that would be, extremely bearish for the,

1256
01:37:41.795 --> 01:37:44.775
the USD token thesis if if that actually happens.

1257
01:37:46.035 --> 01:37:49.495
But it's making me think we should start a, Tether Gold Treasury company.

1258
01:37:50.060 --> 01:37:52.400
Tether Gold no. I mean, what did I say?

1259
01:37:52.940 --> 01:37:55.760
I will I will break Chatham House rules for myself.

1260
01:37:58.380 --> 01:38:00.000
In the 10:31

1261
01:38:02.140 --> 01:38:02.960
group chat,

1262
01:38:03.505 --> 01:38:07.445
I suggested that we launched the first $50.50 split

1263
01:38:08.065 --> 01:38:08.565
silver

1264
01:38:08.945 --> 01:38:11.364
Bitcoin treasury company stacking silver.

1265
01:38:11.665 --> 01:38:13.045
It's got a ring to it.

1266
01:38:13.905 --> 01:38:15.285
It's outperformed gold.

1267
01:38:17.150 --> 01:38:19.889
Yeah. It's positive stacks over with it

1268
01:38:20.190 --> 01:38:20.850
and Bitcoin.

1269
01:38:21.230 --> 01:38:39.465
Well, I've like, you could do crazy things. Like, are there any silver I guess mining companies, right, would be, like, the closest thing, but they don't even keep on balance sheet that much silver or gold. Right? Yeah. I mean, I the vast majority of precious metals miners are, like, selling it all right away. But the balance sheet is is, like, their claims.

1270
01:38:39.765 --> 01:38:42.425
Like, what's in the ground is the balance sheet. Right?

1271
01:38:42.725 --> 01:38:45.240
Well, I mean, they've got, like, traditional, like, fiat assets too,

1272
01:38:45.960 --> 01:38:47.740
and, like, PP and E and everything.

1273
01:38:48.760 --> 01:38:50.540
But, yes, they also have, like, whatever,

1274
01:38:52.440 --> 01:38:55.660
claims they have. So, like, existing mines or, like, proved reserves or whatever,

1275
01:38:56.600 --> 01:38:57.820
would be on there as well.

1276
01:38:59.105 --> 01:39:02.565
But, yeah, I don't I don't know if I would call that a silver treasury company. So maybe it's,

1277
01:39:03.265 --> 01:39:06.324
maybe there's a lot of financial innovation that I think we could figure out,

1278
01:39:07.425 --> 01:39:11.205
with pipeline. We should this would be like a a we got Tether Gold, we got silver,

1279
01:39:12.490 --> 01:39:16.110
then we can launch then you can launch so we got our silver treasury company,

1280
01:39:17.050 --> 01:39:18.010
then we can,

1281
01:39:18.730 --> 01:39:19.550
work with,

1282
01:39:20.250 --> 01:39:24.110
maybe Bitwise would do it. Maybe they would do a, a two x levered long,

1283
01:39:24.650 --> 01:39:25.470
single stock,

1284
01:39:25.930 --> 01:39:28.190
ETF on our silver treasury company.

1285
01:39:29.235 --> 01:39:41.655
We launched several of these. They can put them in a basket and do that as an ETF as well. So there's a lot of, we're, you know, we're we're fixing capital markets here. It really does make it all seem like a scam. It would be the funniest it would be the funniest timeline

1286
01:39:43.230 --> 01:39:43.730
if

1287
01:39:44.830 --> 01:39:52.050
all this shit was a flash in the pan. Bitcoin was a flash in the pan, and then, like, Apple started transitioning some of their cash into silver.

1288
01:39:52.350 --> 01:39:55.810
Just like a massively cash flow positive business just

1289
01:39:56.715 --> 01:39:57.215
just,

1290
01:39:58.395 --> 01:39:59.375
putting putting,

1291
01:39:59.675 --> 01:40:02.495
quote, unquote, precious metals directly on balance sheet.

1292
01:40:03.035 --> 01:40:10.815
It would be it would be very it would be specifically funny if it was silver. Right? Because then, like, none of the sound none of, like, the sound money crew would actually be, like, cabby.

1293
01:40:11.469 --> 01:40:15.090
And it makes it it makes it way more funnier if it's not gold.

1294
01:40:17.070 --> 01:40:20.290
Interesting. Well, I'm glad we walked walked through that together.

1295
01:40:22.429 --> 01:40:24.770
John, this has been great. I have rabbit hole recap,

1296
01:40:25.405 --> 01:40:30.844
and we've been going for an hour and forty. I told you I told John. John was trying to plan his day. I told him we're gonna do a tight hour,

1297
01:40:32.045 --> 01:40:34.145
and we're at hour forty right now.

1298
01:40:35.085 --> 01:40:36.545
Thank you for your time, sir.

1299
01:40:37.330 --> 01:40:39.670
Yeah. No worries. I I know what a tight hour means,

1300
01:40:40.370 --> 01:40:50.870
largely largely because I can't stop talking, so that's that's on me. Yeah. And you have to work with me. It's a pleasure it's a pleasure getting to spend so much time with you both on a professional capacity and a dispatch capacity.

1301
01:40:51.725 --> 01:40:52.445
Do you have,

1302
01:40:53.725 --> 01:40:57.665
any final thoughts for the freaks before we wrap and with with

1303
01:40:58.525 --> 01:41:01.105
the expectation that we will see you in a in

1304
01:41:01.485 --> 01:41:02.945
a quarter or so three months?

1305
01:41:03.260 --> 01:41:06.160
Yeah. Final thoughts, somebody we can just talk about.

1306
01:41:07.580 --> 01:41:09.440
Go take a look at the

1307
01:41:10.300 --> 01:41:14.240
Check on Chain dashboard if you're not following James Check who does

1308
01:41:16.105 --> 01:41:17.005
on chain analytics.

1309
01:41:17.385 --> 01:41:19.885
He's really the only game in town as far as I'm concerned,

1310
01:41:20.905 --> 01:41:24.765
for kinda looking at the way that, Bitcoin flows are shaping up on chain.

1311
01:41:25.625 --> 01:41:28.925
And he's got charts that you can just, for free, use on his website.

1312
01:41:29.700 --> 01:41:31.640
One of which shows basically, like,

1313
01:41:32.180 --> 01:41:35.800
revived supply across basically, like, ages of UTXOs.

1314
01:41:38.740 --> 01:41:42.440
And first of all, I'd say, if you go to that dashboard, you'll see,

1315
01:41:43.235 --> 01:42:03.500
if you click out of everything but, like, UTXOs that are, like, over five years old, you're gonna see that, like, that piece of, like, the selling in the market are assuming that every UTXO that moves is, like, actually being sold, which is, like, an overaggressive assumption, but let's say, for the sake of argument, you're gonna see for all the OG selling narrative, that's a tiny piece of total distribution,

1316
01:42:04.440 --> 01:42:16.385
in in the last, in the last year, last couple years for long term holders, which he he defines anything over six months because of statistically, at that point, you're basically just as likely to to move or not move,

1317
01:42:17.405 --> 01:42:24.785
a UTXO. But in any case, the first thing you're gonna see is that's a tiny piece of the market. It is higher than most periods in history.

1318
01:42:25.405 --> 01:42:26.610
It's been higher before,

1319
01:42:28.610 --> 01:42:30.550
but that to me, to some extent,

1320
01:42:31.010 --> 01:42:41.350
calls into a bit of question, like, that we've got this view that, like, OGs are selling, OGs are dumping, whales are dumping, that's it. A, historically, it's not really even that far off the mark from where it's been.

1321
01:42:42.565 --> 01:42:48.505
But, b, if you look at that dashboard, there has indeed been, like, a ton of Revive supply

1322
01:42:49.125 --> 01:42:53.385
between, you know, one year, two years, three years, up to five years, and then and beyond.

1323
01:42:55.170 --> 01:43:01.030
And the price is at a level that, like, most of most of, like, financial commentariat

1324
01:43:01.570 --> 01:43:06.230
would have thought was, like, absolutely ridiculous just a few years ago. Right? Especially after FTX.

1325
01:43:07.645 --> 01:43:13.985
And it's held in at that level at those, like, apparently ridiculous levels despite this massive wave of revived supply.

1326
01:43:15.645 --> 01:43:19.665
And some of the some of the trades on the other side have been treasury companies, have been MSTR,

1327
01:43:20.910 --> 01:43:31.969
but not like a huge amount. And some of it's been ETFs that's, like, that's been big, but it doesn't those two together, like, don't come close to explaining all of it. So the question I leave people with is who's on the other side?

1328
01:43:32.585 --> 01:43:34.284
Who's on the other side of the trade?

1329
01:43:35.545 --> 01:43:37.005
And why do they appear

1330
01:43:38.505 --> 01:43:39.804
patient and,

1331
01:43:40.505 --> 01:43:42.925
you know, able to let the market come to them?

1332
01:43:43.225 --> 01:43:47.324
Why are they why is it the type of buyer that's not FOMO ing in,

1333
01:43:47.900 --> 01:43:49.119
at just the wrong time?

1334
01:43:50.300 --> 01:43:55.760
Who's on the other side? That's what I'll leave people with. I think the answer to that question is

1335
01:43:56.460 --> 01:44:01.035
about as should make you about as bullish as you can get, but I'll just leave people with that,

1336
01:44:01.595 --> 01:44:03.695
rhetorical question to to cut off here.

1337
01:44:04.235 --> 01:44:05.055
Love it.

1338
01:44:08.555 --> 01:44:09.615
Yeah. Well said.

1339
01:44:09.995 --> 01:44:12.975
And I would just the the whole OG selling thing is

1340
01:44:14.140 --> 01:44:14.640
oversold.

1341
01:44:15.660 --> 01:44:17.040
We hear that all the time.

1342
01:44:18.780 --> 01:44:24.480
We've heard in all the past, quote, unquote, scam cycles, fake cycles, psy ops cycles. Psy ops cycle.

1343
01:44:26.435 --> 01:44:27.895
Price goes up, people sell.

1344
01:44:28.755 --> 01:44:30.295
Every seller has a buyer.

1345
01:44:30.835 --> 01:44:31.975
It's important to remember.

1346
01:44:32.595 --> 01:44:34.935
Freaks. I'll put all relevant links

1347
01:44:35.315 --> 01:44:39.495
in the show notes as always. I will get this up later today.

1348
01:44:39.795 --> 01:44:41.155
So when you're listening to it

1349
01:44:41.880 --> 01:44:43.739
it was earlier today that we recorded.

1350
01:44:45.320 --> 01:44:48.219
You can find John at primal.net/john.

1351
01:44:49.080 --> 01:44:50.060
Give us your feedback.

1352
01:44:51.159 --> 01:44:59.995
I I hope you I think you're I think people find these converse even though they're a little bit outside the wheelhouse, they're very much outside the wheelhouse to still dispatch.

1353
01:45:01.975 --> 01:45:04.155
I think it's still highly relevant to people.

1354
01:45:04.615 --> 01:45:05.675
I like the transparency.

1355
01:45:06.215 --> 01:45:12.900
I mean, so much of our time is focused on building out ten thirty one, so I like the transparency of of what we're thinking about

1356
01:45:13.280 --> 01:45:14.420
on the market side.

1357
01:45:16.240 --> 01:45:17.620
But, also, I just think,

1358
01:45:18.400 --> 01:45:19.060
you know,

1359
01:45:20.385 --> 01:45:22.645
we come at it from a different angle than maybe

1360
01:45:23.344 --> 01:45:27.125
than we definitely come at it from a different angle than than your typical,

1361
01:45:27.665 --> 01:45:29.445
you know, whatever, macro podcasts,

1362
01:45:30.145 --> 01:45:35.239
when we talk about these things. So I think it'd be highly relevant. But, anyway, Freaks, feedback is always appreciated.

1363
01:45:35.619 --> 01:45:38.760
The easiest way is your favorite nostril app. I really like primal.

1364
01:45:40.500 --> 01:45:44.679
Ten thirty one's the largest investor in primal, and we're actually involved in the development of it.

1365
01:45:46.675 --> 01:45:48.935
And we're gonna make it better. It's gonna be even better.

1366
01:45:49.475 --> 01:45:55.094
Next time John joins, it's gonna be it's gonna be amazing. It's gonna be the best app ever. You're gonna love it. The best.

1367
01:45:55.875 --> 01:45:56.935
Many people that I.

1368
01:45:58.035 --> 01:46:02.039
I got another dispatch lined up for next week. We're gonna keep the ball rolling.

1369
01:46:02.500 --> 01:46:04.039
Share with your friends and family.

1370
01:46:04.340 --> 01:46:08.039
Thank you for your support. Thank you, John, for joining us. This was a great chat.

1371
01:46:09.300 --> 01:46:10.333
Thanks for having me.

1372
01:46:11.213 --> 01:46:13.473
Cheers. Stay humble, Stack Sats. Peace.