Feb. 25, 2026

"EL MENCHO DEAD: CARTEL KINGPIN FALLS, NANCY GUTHRIE'S KIDNAPPER HUNTED & KOHBERGER'S REAL MOTIVE EXPOSED"

Show Notes
Transcript

Reid Carter covers three major crime stories gripping America. Mexico's most wanted drug lord Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes killed Sunday in Jalisco military raid - CJNG boss behind most of America's fentanyl is dead, but 70 people killed in violent cartel retaliation across 20 Mexican states. Nancy Guthrie's kidnapping enters week four with no arrest - Savannah Guthrie's 84-year-old mother abducted from Tucson home, $200,000+ reward offered, investigators pursuing genealogical DNA leads as theories emerge this was a "burglary gone wrong." And newly released Bryan Kohberger autopsy findings reveal a psychosexual fantasy gone catastrophically sideways - and who his real target was.

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WEBVTT

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Callaroga Shark Media, Good morning, I'm reed Carter. Wednesday, February

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twenty fifth, twenty twenty six. Three stories this morning, each

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one landing differently, but all of them heavy. Sunday afternoon,

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Mexican special forces killed Elmento Nemesio O Seguera Servantes, fifty

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nine years old in a military raid in the mountains

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of Jlisco State. The most wanted drug lord in the

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Western Hemisphere, the man behind more fentanyl deaths in America

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than any single person alive dead in the hills outside

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of vacation rental in a town called Tapalpa. More than

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seventy people died in the aftermath, cartel retaliation, roadblocks, cities

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on fire. The operations sent shockwaves through two countries. Here

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in the United States, Nancy Guthrie has been missing for

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twenty four days. The eighty four year old mother of

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Today Show anchors Savannah Guthrie, taken from her Tucson home

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in the middle of the night on February first. Investigators

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pursuing hundreds of leads. A masked suspect on a doorbell

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camera DNA that matches nobody in the FBI database, A

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possible ransom of six million dollars in cryptocurrency, a two

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hundred thousand dollars reward, and still no answers. And Brian Cooberger,

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seven months into a life sentence for murdering four University

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of Idaho students in twenty twenty two. Newly released autopsy

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findings and forensic analysis now reveal in horrifying detail, the

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psychology behind that attack, who his intended target was, and

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why the attack escalated so catastrophically when his plan didn't

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go as he'd imagined. I'm reed, Carter, this is celebrity trials.

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Let's start in Mexico. Sunday morning, February twenty second. Tapalpa Hallisco,

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a small picturesque mountain town about ninety kilometers south of Guadalajara.

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Vacation cabins in the Hills country club nearby, the kind

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of place tourists visit for the scenery and the quiet.

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Mexican Army Special Forces knew better. They had a tip,

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a concrete one, and they moved fast. Nemasio Ruben Ossigera Servantes,

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known universally as Elmentcho, was hiding at a vacation rental

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called Cabanas La Looma. The Mexican Defense secretary later said

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the tip came through a trusted contact of one of

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Elmentho's romantic partners. The lover had visited the compound then left.

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Elmentcho stayed behind with his security detail, and his location

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was compromised to avoid arousing suspicion. The Mexican military primarily

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used ground forces, limited air support a perimeter around the complex.

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Then they closed in. They came under immediate fire from

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Elmentcho's cartel lieutenants. Eight c j n G operatives were

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killed at the scene. Three more, including Elmentcho himself health

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were critically wounded and airlifted toward Mexico City. All three

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died en route. Three Mexican soldiers were wounded and receiving treatment.

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Fifty nine years old former police officer, former avocado farmer

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from Misha Khan, co founder of the Jalisco New Generation

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Cartel the CJNNG around two thousand and seven. The man

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who built arguably the most powerful and violent criminal organization

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in Mexico. The man the FBI considered responsible for the

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bulk of fentanyl, cocaine, and methamphetamine flooding into the United States.

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The man with a fifteen million dollar bounty on his

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head from the US government, one of the largest rewards

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ever offered for a cartel leader. The man who maintained

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such an obsessive low profile that all known photographs of

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him were decades old. Dead in the hills of Jllisco.

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February twenty second, twenty twenty six, US intelligence contributed to

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the operation. White House Press Seconditary Caroline Leavitt confirmed the

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US provided intelligence support. US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher

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Landau called Elmencho one of the bloodiest and most ruthless

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drug kingpins, and said his death was a great development

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from Mexico, the US, Latin America, and the world. The

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Trump administration had designated the CJNNG a foreign terrorist organization

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in February twenty twenty five. Getting Elmentcho was the biggest

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prize possible in that campaign. But here's the brutal math.

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Catching the kingpin doesn't stop the cartel, and Elmentcho's death

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proved it within hours. The CJNG's retaliation was immediate, coordinated,

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and savage. Within hours of Sunday's operation, cartel forces erected

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somewhere between eighty and two hundred and fifty narco blockades

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across twenty Mexican states. Cars set on fire, buses torched,

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pharmacies and convenience stores, burned, highways sealed, prison breaks r

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reported in Porto Vallarta, Jalisco Governor Pablo Limas told residents

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to stay home. He suspended public transportation. Guadalajara, a city

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of millions, a city that will host twenty twenty six

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World Cup matches this summer, became a ghost town. Sunday night,

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Puerto Vallarta, the tourist destination that draws hundreds of thousands

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of American visitors, was described as under siege, Thick columns

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of black smoke rising over the city, gunshots, absolute chaos.

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The US State Department issued emergency guidance urging American citizens

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in Yalisco, Tamolopas, Mishua, Khan, Guerrero, Sineloa, and other states

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to shelter in place, do not travel, do not move.

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When the official body count came in Monday, it was staggering.

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Twenty five members of Mexico's National Guard killed in cartel

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retaliation attacks, a prison guard, a state attorney's office employee,

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a civilian woman. Thirty four criminals killed in post operation incidents.

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Three soldiers wounded in the original raid, more than seventy

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people dead in total. In a span of roughly twenty

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four hours, twenty five National guardsmen killed in retaliation. Let

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that sink in. Mexican President Claudia Shinbaum made a public

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plea for peace Monday morning. She credited her security forces,

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thanked the United States for intelligence assistance, called for calm,

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said peace and security were being maintained. Analysts are skeptical.

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Here's the problem with killing a cartel kingpin. What comes next?

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Elmentcho had already seated some organizational control because he was

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constantly on the run from authorities. His leadership was decentralized.

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His son, Ruben menchito O Seguera, is serving life in

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a US federal prison. His daughter Jessica, known as La Negra,

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did thirty months in federal prison for money laundering and

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was released in twenty twenty two. His co founder, Eric

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Valencia Salazar was extradited to the United States in February

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twenty twenty five, among twenty nine wanted cartel leaders. The

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upper ranks of CIJNNG have been systematically dismantled, but systematically

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dismantled doesn't mean gone. Security analysts are pointing to three

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potential successors. Elmento's step son, Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez Audias

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Flores Silva, who oversees cartel operations in Micha Khan Zacatecas

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and Niaite, and Gonzalo Mendoza Gaetan, who manages the ports.

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Then there's Riccardo Ruiz Velasco, identified as the leader of

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the cartel's elite group. No shortage of violent men ready

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to step into the vacuum. The concern isn't just who

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takes over the CIJNNG, It's that Elmentcho's death creates an opening.

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The Sineloa cartel, already fractured by its own internal warfare

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following El Chapo's imprisonment, now sees an opportunity roots ports territory,

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the kind of power vacuum that historically produces the worst bloodshed.

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Former Ecuadorian intelligence officials are already warning that CJNNG partners

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in Ecuador and Columbia will face pressure from Siniloa forces

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trying to scoop up trafficking routes. Elmencho was a former

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police officer who knew exactly how law enforcement thinks he

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kept himself hidden for nearly two decades. Ran the most

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aggressive cartel in Mexico. The organization that shot down a

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military helicopter with a rocket propelled grenade, that pioneered drone,

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launched explosives against law enforcement, that attempted to assassinate Mexico

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City's police chief with grenades and high powered rifles in

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twenty twenty in the middle of the city, that ran

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drug trafficking networks across five continents. What did that operation

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actually accomplish. It killed a symbol, a man whose absence

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from day to day operations had been growing for years,

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and it triggered retaliatory violence that killed more people in

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twenty four hours than most American cities see in a month.

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Mexico will host twenty twenty six World Cup matches in

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Guadalajara this summer, tourists from around the world, billions in

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economic activity, and Sunday night, that same city was a

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ghost town because a drug lord died in the mountains

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forty miles away. President Shinbaum knew the retaliation was coming.

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Analysts say she calculated that the opportunity to take down

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Elmencho outweighed the disruption that Mexican forces had the capacity

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to contain it quickly. The roadblocks were largely cleared by Monday.

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Schools reopened, Life resumed, but seventy plus people are dead

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and the fentanyl will keep coming. The man is dead,

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the organization survives, and the drugs that have killed more

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than one hundred thousand Americans per year, the synthetic opioids

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that flow from CJNNG operations through Mexican ports into American communities,

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those pipelines don't di disappear because the kingpin got taken

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out in a vacation cabin in Jullisco. Welcome to justice

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in the drug war. Sometimes it looks like a triumph,

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and sometimes the triumph costs more than you planned. We'll

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be right back with Nancy Guthrie. Twenty four days missing,

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no arrest and a new theory that changes everything about

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what happened inside that Tucson home. Welcome back to celebrity trials.

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I'm reed Carter, twenty four days. Nancy Guthrie has been

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missing for twenty four days. Eighty four years old, mother

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of NBC Today anchor Savannah Guthrie. Born January twenty seventh,

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nineteen forty two, lived in the Tucson area for more

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than fifty years. Sharp as attack, according to everyone who

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knew her, independent active a woman who lived alone in

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an upscale neighborhood called the Catalina Foothills in the shadow

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of the Santa Catalina Mountains, who had dinner with her

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daughter Annie and son in law on the night of

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January thirty first, who was dropped off at her own

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home around nine forty five in the evening and was

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never seen again. The next morning, Sunday, February first, Nancy

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was supposed to join a friend remotely for church services.

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She did this every Sunday. She didn't call, she didn't show.

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Her family tried to check on her, called nine one

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one around noon. That set off a missing person's investigation

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that has now consumed four hundred law enforcement personnel, drawn

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international media attention, generated tens of thousands of public tips,

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and still produced zero arrests. Let me walk you through

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what we know. Blood on the front porch of her home.

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Investigators found drops of Nancy Guthrie's blood. Her DNA confirmed

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evidence that something violent happened at that threshold. Doorbell camera

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the home's nest, doorbell camera was disconnected from Nancy's phone

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app at two twenty eight in the morning on February first,

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but the footage was preserved on servers. FBI released images

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and video on February tenth. They show a masked individual

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approaching the front door, carrying a backpack, tampering with the camera,

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putting branches over the lens. The suspect is described as

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a male five foot nine to five foot ten, average build,

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wearing dark clothing, carrying a black twenty five liter Ozark

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trail hiker pack, a backpack sold exclusively at Walmart, a

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gun holster, and possibly a ring. Two gloves found approximately

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two miles from Nancy's home. DNA from those gloves matches

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an unknown male, not Nancy, not anyone known to have

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been at her home. That DNA does not match anything

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in the FBI's national database. It's unknown DNA, and that's

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a problem because it means the person who took her

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hasn't been arrested before, hasn't been in the system. But

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here's where it gets more complicated. Investigators also found DNA

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at the home itself, not from Nancy, not from anyone

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who should have been there. That DNA has been sent

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for genealogical analysis, the same process used to solve cold cases,

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building a family tree backwards from partial DNA to identify

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relatives and eventually narrow down a suspect. It took six

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weeks to identify Brian Koeberger through similar methods after the

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Idaho murders. This process takes time. Walmart records investigators got

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every sales record for the Ozark Trail backpack online and

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in store, extending well beyond the Tucson area. That's thousands

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of transactions to comb through painstaking work. No evidence the

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border was crossed. Two officials briefed on the case confirmed

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to NBC News there is no evidence Nancy Guthrie was

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transported into Mexico. Authorities on both sides of the border

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have been coordinating since day one. She's believed to still

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be in the US. Ransom notes. Multiple ransom notes have

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been sent to media outlets in Tucson. One demanded six

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million dollars in cryptocurrency, with two deadlines that have both passed,

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the first around February sixth, the second around February ninth.

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A second note sent to a local station contained sensitive

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information and appeared not to be a ransom demand. Investigators

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are treating all notes as potential leads without publicly confirming

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their authenticity or origin. The family responded publicly and desperately.

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On February fourth, Savannah Guthrie appeared on video tearful direct

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asking for proof of life. February seventh, another video, Savannah

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with her siblings Annie and Cameron. We received your message

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and we understand. We beg you now to return our

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mone other to us. And then the line that broke

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everyone who heard it. This is very valuable to us,

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and we will pay. President Trump called Savannah on February fourth,

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offered federal resources, said the administration had strong clues and

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expected answers soon. No further details provided. One man was

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detained in February tenth during a traffic stop in Rio Rico, Arizona,

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a small desert town just north of the Mexican border.

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Police searched an address associated with him. His attorney said

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he had no connection to the case and was released.

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Dead end now the theory that's circulating among investigators. A

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source close to the investigation told Arizona media outlet thirteen

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News that investigators increasingly believed this was a burglary gone wrong,

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that the masked man on the doorbell camera was there

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to rob the house, not to kidnap an eighty four

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year old grandmother, that he either didn't know she was home,

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or didn't expect to encounter her, or didn't for what

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came next. The same source says the widespread belief within

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the investigation is that Nancy Guthrie could still be alive

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if it was a burglary gone wrong. That explained some things.

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Why the suspect's gun holster is a universal fit, not

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the kind of professional or experienced criminal uses, why the

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backpack is a basic Walmart buy, Why the ransom notes

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were sent to media outlets rather than directly to the

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family through more sophisticated channels. This doesn't feel like a

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professional kidnapping operation. It feels like someone who made a catastrophic,

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terrifying decision in the moment and then didn't know how

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to undo it. The pacemaker. Nancy Guthrie has a pacemaker

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with six to seven more years of battery life. The

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device was disconnected from her phone app at two twenty

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eight in the morning, shortly after the doorbell footage was captured.

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Investigators have been working with the pacemaker manufacturer to detect

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any signals the device might be emitting. It's a thin thread,

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but they're pulling it. Daily Medicare. Nancy requires daily medication.

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The Pima County Sheriff's Department has said the absence of

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that medication could become fatal. Twenty four days is a

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long time. Community volunteers searched the desert Sunday, the same

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day Elmento died in Mexico, organized search parties combing washes

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between Nancy's home and nearby intersections looking for clothing, jewelry, masks, gloves.

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They found nothing relevant. One helicopter spotted over a local

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landfill turned out to have no connection to the case.

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Two hundred thousand dollars in rewards now available, one hundred

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thousand dollars from the FBI, another one hundred two thousand,

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five hundred dollars through Tucson Crime Stoppers, funded through private donations,

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including a one hundred thousand dollars personal check from Milwaukee

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Crime Stoppers president Michael Hupy. Someone has to come forward,

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someone knows something. Sheriff Chris Nanos has taken heat for

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reportedly running a tight operation, keeping even federal partners at

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a distance, with only himself and two senior staffers making

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key decisions. The structure is unusual. Multiple sources suggest tensions

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between local and federal agencies about information sharing. Nanos has

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denied the characterization. He's been in front of cameras. He's

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been answering questions, but so far, no arrest, no suspect named,

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no public persons of interest. Three weeks in, this is

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what we have. Blood on a porch, a masked man

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on a doorbell camera, partial DNA that doesn't match anyone

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in the system, a backpack from Walmart, a unique gun holster,

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a possible ring, ransom notes, and an eighty four year

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old woman who needs daily medication and hasn't been seen

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in twenty four days. Savannah Guthrie stepped away from the

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Today Show. She was supposed to co host the opening

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ceremonies of the twenty twenty six Winter Olympics. She left

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all of it to be home in Tucson to look

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for her mother. She's in front of cameras, in front

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of millions of viewers, and every time the message is

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the same, please bring her home. We will pay. Nancy

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Guthrie is eighty four years old. She's someone's mother, someone's grandmother.

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A woman who's lived in Tucson for fifty years, who

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goes to church on Sundays, who has dinner with her

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family and plays games and comes home and feeds her dog,

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except she doesn't have a dog. She lives alone, and

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she hasn't been home in twenty four days. If you

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have any information, call the FBI at one eight hundred

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call FBI, or submit a tip at tips dot FBI

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dot gov. The reward is two hundred thousand dollars. Someone

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out there knows something, Bring her home coming up. Brian

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Coberger has been in prison for seven months, but newly

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released autopsy analysis finally answers the question everyone has been asking.

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Who was he really targeting that night in Moscow, Idaho?

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And why did everything go so catastrophic wrong? Welcome back

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to celebrity trials. I'm reed, Carter. July twenty twenty five,

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Brian Coburger, then thirty years old, appeared in an Idaho

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courtroom and entered a guilty plea to four counts of

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first degree murder nine hundred sixty two days after he

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drove to a house on King Road in Moscow, Idaho

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and killed four University of Idaho students in a fifteen

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minute rampage. He's serving four consecutive life sentences, no possibility

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of parole. We covered his plea extensively. We covered the evidence,

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the kaw bar hunting knife, the leather sheath found on

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Madison Mogan's bed with Coburger's DNA on the clasp, the

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cell phone data placing him near the house at least

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twenty three times in the months before the murders, the

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white Hyundai Elantra, the sheath that became the smoking gun.

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What we didn't have was the full picture of what

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happened inside that house until now. Newly released autopsy findings

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and forensic analysis reviewed by doctor Gary Bruccato, who co

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led the creation of the Columbia University mass Murdered Database,

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finally answer the question that has haunted this case from

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the beginning. Who did Brian Coburger go there to kill?

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And what does the physical evidence tell us about his

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state of mind? The answer is both clinically precise and

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deeply disturbing. Let me set the scene. November thirteenth, twenty

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twenty two, one thousand, one hundred twenty two King Road,

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a rented off campus house in Moscow, Idaho. Six residents

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four would die that night. Two surviving roommates were home

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and never woke up. The attack lasted approximately fifteen minutes.

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Coburger entered through the rear sliding door on the second floor,

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went upstairs to the third floor to the room where

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best friends Madison Mogan and Kaylee Gonkalvs were sleeping together

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in Mogan's bed after another. The autopsy findings document the

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wounds each victim sustained, and those numbers tell a story.

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Madison Mogan twenty one years old, twenty eight stab wounds

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thirteen to the scalp, face and neck, ten to the

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upper extremities, five to the chest, injuries to the lung

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and liver. Kaylee Goncalves twenty one years old, thirty eight

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stab wounds plus asphyxial injuries and blunt force trauma to

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the head, twenty four wounds to the scalp, face and

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neck alone, eleven to the chest, three to the upper extremities,

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injuries to her skull, her teeth, her tongue, the subclavian artery,

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and vein. Xana Kernodle twenty years old, sixty seven stab wounds,

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twenty five to the upper extremities, twenty three to the scalp,

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face and neck, wounds to the heart, lung, pulmonary, blood vessels,

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blood on the soles of her feet indicating she was

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stepping in her own blood as she fought back chapin

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twenty years old Zana's boyfriend sleeping in her bed. Seventeen

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stab wounds, the fewest of any victim. Now what do

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those numbers mean? Doctor Brucado's analysis is this Coburger had

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a specific target and that target was Madison Mogen. The

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evidence Coburger went directly to the third floor bedroom where

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Mogen and Goncalves were sleeping. That was his destination. His

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intel had led him there. Mogen sustained fewer wounds than Gonkalv's,

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which Bruccado argues indicates she was attacked first and with

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more focus, more deliberateness, more control. The attack on Goncalves

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was more frenzied, more aggressive, more unhinged. Why because gon

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Covs wasn't supposed to be there. She was sleeping in

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Mogan's bed that night. She was an interruption to the plan.

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He went in and made a bee line for Maddie,

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who was his target and found Kaylee unexpectedly there. Brucado

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told The Daily Mail the extra rage directed at Gonkhov's

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twenty four wounds to the face and neck, blunt force

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trauma that left her face unrecognizable a possible second weapon used.

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Brucato attributes to fury at being interrupted, being seen, having

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his fantasy disrupted. You punish the ones who see you,

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the people who interrupt your fantasy, he said. That's the

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word that matters here. Fantasy, not murder in a legal

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or clinical sense. Fantasy, a psychosexual scenario Coburger had been building, planning,

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and fixating on for months, possibly years. Digital forensics experts

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who analyzed his devices found searches for pornographic content involving

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non consensual acts search terms sleeping, passed out, voyeur, forced, raped, drugged.

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Also had an obsessive interest in serial killers and home

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invasion scenarios. Coburger surveiled one thousand, one hundred twenty two

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King Road in the months before the murders. Cell Phone

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data placed him in the vicinity at least twenty three times,

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mostly at night, between July twenty twenty two and the

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murders in November. Surviving roommates and friends reported seeing a

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man watching the house from the tree line when Kaylee

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Guncalves took her dog Murphy outside. He was studying the house,

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building a picture, building a target profile, and he picked

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Madison Mogan. Brucato believes it was because of what Mogan

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represented in Coburger's internal world, beauty rejection, something he craved

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and couldn't access through normal human interaction. There's something odd

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about how he relates to human beings, Bruchado said. He

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understands them in a mechanical, detached way, thinking of people

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almost like insects in a jar. He was a criminology

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PhD student. He studied murder. He studied the psychology of killers,

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and he applied that research to himself, refining planning, eliminating variables,

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and then everything went wrong. Xana Kernidle was awake on

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the floor below using TikTok. She just received a door

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dash order. She heard something. She went upstairs. She walked

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in on Brian Koeberger in the middle of his attack.

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Sixty seven stab wounds the most of any victim, because

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she saw him, because she fought back. The blood on

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the soles of her feet, She was stepping in blood

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while she fought, while she tried to live. She was

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twenty years old. Ethan Chapin, sleeping in her bed, was

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attacked last seventeen wounds, the fewest, not because Coburger had

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any affection for him, but because Chapin was male. Coburger's

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fantasy was directed at women. Chapin was an obstacle to

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be eliminated, not an object of rage for the women.

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Bruchato explains, the numbers of injuries are increasing because it's

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getting more and more frenzied. As he's moving away from

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the initial murder, he is losing control more and more

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so is attacking more intensely. For Ethan, who needed to

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be eliminated quickly, the wounds were concentrated and purposeful. The

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leather sheath left on Madison Mogan's bed the piece of

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