Trump's Polling Lead, and Nick Offerman's Bread vs. Dog Poop

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Callaroga Shark Media from Washington, d
C. Home of quirky insights of Hollywood

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actors. This is Ballot First Up, we'll dive into the latest CNN poll

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that shows Donald Trump maintaining his lead
over President Joe Biden despite the former president's

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ongoing legal troubles. We'll also take
a closer look at Alan Lichtman, the

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Nostra Damis of US presidential elections,
and his famous thirteen Keys to the White

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House. It looks like the twenty
twenty four presidential race is heating up,

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and according to a new CNN poll, Donald Trump is holding steady with a

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lead over President Joe Biden. That's
right, the man who's currently on trial

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for allegedly paying hush money to a
porn star is still the front runner.

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I guess when it comes to politics, sometimes crime does pay. But here's

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the real kicker. The poll shows
that most Americans now see Trump's presidency as

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a success, while a majority view
Biden's as a failure. It's like the

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American public has collective amnesia about the
chaos and controversy that defined the Trump era.

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I mean, sure he didn't start
any new wars, but he did

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incite an insurrection at the Capitol,
but hey, who's counting. Interestingly,

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Republicans are more unified in their belief
that Trump's presidency was a success than Democrats

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are about Biden's. A whopping ninety
two percent of Republicans call Trump's time in

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office a success, while only seventy
three percent of Democrats say the same about

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Biden. I guess when it comes
to party loyalty, the GOP has the

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Democrats beat, and let's not forget
about the independence. A slim majority of

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them fifty one percent say Trump's presidency
was successful, while only thirty seven percent

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see Bidens as a success. It's
like they're saying, sure, Trump may

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have been a bit of a wild
card, but at least he kept things

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interesting. But here's the real head
scratcher. Fourteen percent of Americans they consider

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both Trump and Biden to be failures, while eight percent say both are successes.

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Talk about a case of political schizophrenia. I guess some people just can't

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make up their minds. As for
Biden's approval ratings, they're about as popular

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as a skunk at a garden party. A solid sixty percent disapprove of his

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handling of the job while only forty
percent approve, and even on his strongest

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issues like health care policy and student
loan debt, he's still in negative territory.

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But his worst issue the war between
Israel and Hamas and Gaza, where

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he's got a measly twenty eight percent
approval rating. I guess when it comes

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to Middle East conflicts, Biden's not
exactly the great peacemaker. So what does

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all this mean for the twenty twenty
four race. Well, it's still early

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and a lot can change between now
an election day. But one thing's for

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sure. If Trump manages to beat
his criminal charges and win back the White

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House, he'll have pulled off the
greatest political comeback since Nixon. And if

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Biden manages to turn things around and
secure a second term, well that'll be

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a miracle on part with the parting
of the Red Sea, and he was

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around to see that one firsthand.
Let me introduce you to the man who's

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been giving polsters and pundits sleepless nights
for decades, Alan Lichtman, the Nostra

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Damis of US presidential elections. This
guy has correctly predicted the outcome of nine

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out of the last ten elections.
Using his famous thirteen keys to the White

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House, and now he's gearing up
for his greatest challenge yet Biden Versus Trump

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the sequel. But before we dive
into Lichtman's crystal ball, let's take a

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moment to appreciate the man himself.
He's not just a history professor. He's

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a former North American three thousand meters
steeplechase champion who, at seventy seven,

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is still aiming to compete in the
next Senior Olympics. And let's not forget

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his appearance on the TV quiz show
Tic Tac Dough where he wont to cool

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one hundred ten thousand doors in cash
and prizes. Talk about a renaissance man.

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Back to those thirteen keys. Lichtman
developed them back in nineteen eighty one

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with the help of a Russian earthquake
prediction expert. That's right, folks,

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the secret to predicting US elections lies
in seismology. Who knew. The keys

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cover everything from the state of the
economy, to foreign policy successes and failures,

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and even the charisma of the candidates, and they've been scarily accurate over

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the years, much to the chagrin
of the professional forecasting community. But what

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about that one miss in two thousand, you ask, Well, according to

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Lichtman, that wasn't a miss at
all. He maintains that the election was

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stolen from al Gore, and he's
got the receipts to prove it. One

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out of every nine to ten ballots
cast by a black voter was thrown out,

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compared to just one out of fifty
for white voters. Coincidence, Lichtman

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thinks, not so, what does
the professor have to say about twenty twenty

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four. Well, he's not ready
to make his official prediction just yet,

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but he does note that Biden already
has two keys in his favor incumbency and

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a lack of serious primary challengers.
That means Trump would need six more keys

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to fall his way to secure a
victory. And with the specter of a

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criminal conviction looming over the former president's
head, that's looking like an increasingly tall

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order. Let's dive a little deeper
into Alan Lickman's thirteen Keys to the White

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House. These are the factors that
he says can make or break a presidential

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candidate's chances of winning the big prize. First up, we've got the party

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mandate. Basically, if the incumbent
party holds more seats in the House after

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the midterms than they did before,
that's a good sign for them. But

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if they lose ground, well,
let's just say they might want to start

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updating their resumes. Next, there's
the contest key. If there's no serious

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challenge to the incumbent party's nomination,
that's a point in their favor. But

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if there's a knockdown, drag out
primary fight, it could spell trouble in

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November. Of course, having the
sitting president as your candidate is always a

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plus, as is the absence of
a significant third party or independent campaign.

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And let's not forget the economy.
If we're not in a recession and people

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are feeling good about their wallets,
that's a big win for the incumbent.

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But it's not all about the money, honey. Lichtmann also looks at things

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like major policy changes, social unrest, and scandals. If the incumbent administration

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is rocking the boat too much or
getting caught with their hands in the cookie

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jar, that could be a red
flag. And let's not forget about foreign

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policy. A big win on the
world stage can be a game changer,

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but a major failure could be the
kiss of death. Just ask Jimmy Carter

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how that whole Iran hostage crisis thing
worked out for him. Finally, there's

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the charisma factor. If the incumbent
party's candidate is a real charmer or a

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national hero, that's a point in
their favor. But if the challenger is

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the one with the magnetic personality,
watch out. But here's the thing.

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Even with all these factors in play, there's always the possibility of a black

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Swan event that could throw everything into
chaos. I mean, who could have

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predicted a global pandemic or an attempted
insurrection at the Capitol. So while Lickman's

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track record is impressive, even he
admits that nothing is perfect in the human

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world. But hey, if he
does end up being wrong this time around,

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at least he can always fall back
on his Tic tac dough winnings.

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One hundred and ten thousand dollars can
buy a lot of humble pie. Nick

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Offerman, the actor who played the
president in Civil War, has some strong

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opinions about the current state of American
politics. In a recent interview with The

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Washington Post, Offerman started off by
saying he wants to provide support for good

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government and that he's astonished by the
incredibly good job Biden and Harris have quietly

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been doing. But then he decided
to take things up a notch. Offerman

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posed a question that I'm sure has
been on everyone's mind, Trump versus Biden.

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Would you rather have ale of dog
crap or a loaf of bread?

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I mean, when you put it
that way, it seems like a pretty

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easy choice, right. Offerman acknowledged
that his colorful comparison might not be the

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most helpful thing to say. He
even expressed a desire to be friends with

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Trump supporters, saying, you guys
seem decent in every other way. But

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here's the kicker. He thinks that
a lot of the information they're receiving is

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like being told, oh, it's
not dog crap, it's pumper nickel.

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He's made it clear that in the
battle between Trump and Biden, he's team

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Bred all the way. But to
all the dog crap lovers out there,

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don't worry. Auferman still wants to
be your friend. Just don't try to

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pass off any pumper nickel at your
next dinner party. He even wrote a

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song called I Thought I was a
man, But I was wrong. The

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material wrote itself. I just said, I mean, I can't write a

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better joke than Ben Shapiro questioning my
masculinity. Portions of today's podcast may have

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been created with the help of AI
AI serve you dog crap and tell you

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it's bread. Probably not, except
that terminator guy. He's a jerk.